In an article published in mBio, researchers at the Glycomics Institute at Griffith University and the University of Alberta in Canada predicted that a vaccine that is 50% effective and administered to 50% of the population will prevent you from further loss of life, provided that social estating is less practiced. and whether immunity induced through the vaccine lasts about a year.
“We have modeled the epidemic over the 3 years (before the vaccine) and are introducing a vaccine,” says lead researcher Professor Michael Good AO.
“By comparing longer immunity with declining immunity, we can expect one-year herbal immunity to particularly decrease mortality rates, especially under conditions where the intensity of control measures does not decrease at least 60% of the social mix. “
Professor Good stated that if herbal immunity were to develop, it would occur most temporarily in those with symptomatic infections, which is demonstrated through the reduced era of viral shedding and the superior and longer antibody responses in symptomatic Americans to asymptomatic Americans.
“The evidence shows that other people aged 20 to 64 are the most exposed organization and probably would have developed the highest point of immunity. But the question is, we don’t know if they get benefits from the total network through herd immunity. ” .
He said they are a vaccine that is 50% effective as a conservative estimate, similar to the flu vaccine, but well below efficacy for viral infections in years of formation.
“However, the elderly will be the first to get a COVID-19 vaccine and their immune reaction will be lower than that of younger people. Unless a vaccine is developed that is particularly effective at more than 50% and unless the vaccine policy is over. 50%. , Social isolation, especially for those most at risk, will be a permanent necessity to prevent further deaths. “
methods
Researchers used a deterministic compartmental style with transient immunity to infection recovery (SIRS style: susceptible, infected, recovered). It is a popular style in mathematical epidemiology that takes into account important dynamics: herbal births and deaths, contact rates, duration of infection. , infection mortality rates and duration of immunity.