Imperial’s COVID-19 team worked with fitness and governments around the world to help plan responses to the pandemic.
The coronavirus pandemic has been the biggest physical challenge in more than a century.
Since January, the team has been working tirelessly to design the pandemic in real time, offering policy makers and aptitude around the world the latest estimates of the magnitude of the outbreaks.
The team is a component of the Imperial MRC Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (MRC GIDA) and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analysis (J-IDEA), or at the School of Public Health.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who leads the team, said: “We have dealt with many infectious disease crises, obviously none of this magnitude, but we exist to offer quality and we have an established procedure for creating groups that work together.”
To help fitness around the overall plan in its pandemic reaction, the team has developed coronavirus outbreak simulation teams for 137 countries.
The Covidsim.org platform is a situation research tool that allows projections of the prevalence of infections per day and the expected number of others requiring hospitalization and extensive care.
The team’s world-renowned scientists played a central role in informing world leaders about the pandemic epidemic and the effects of epidemic control strategies imaginable.
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The team is working recently with many of the most affected governments, adding Brazil, Italy, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States.
COVID-19’s reaction team to the British government with models of the epidemic pandemic.
Professor Ferguson has given the impression to British MPs, participating in the Science and Technology Committee hearings in March and June, as well as on a House of Lords committee in June.
Professor Ferguson and his colleagues are working with the UK government to see the effect of the slow lifting of the blockade and the advent of “test and traceability” measures.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), chaired by Sir Patrick Vallance, receives reports from the Imperial Team.
Dr Marc Baguelin (who plays a joint role between Imperial and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) and his organization produce estimates of “real-time models” of the virus’s huge number of effective replicas (Rt) as physical attention span. and more recently the prevalence of antibodies in the population.
Professor Peter Openshaw explained his paintings to the virus at a House of Lords hearing in June.
Dr. Ilaria Dorigatti and his colleagues have been working with the Italian Ministry of Health and the Istituto Superiore di Sanita ‘(National Institute of Health) since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, to estimate the prospective trajectory of the epidemic and its impact. non-pharmaceutical interventions.
A key study published in Nature found that about 40% of infections were asymptomatic and that the viral load of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections was not statistically different, suggesting that asymptomatic infections could possibly transmit SARS-CoV-2.
Dr. Dorigatti has been working with the University of Padua lately to analyze blood samples and answer questions about transmission heterogeneities in the population.
The COVID-19 reaction team also analyzed the most likely effect on the flexibilization of blocking measures in Italy and the effect on coronavirus transmission.
One report estimated that social estrangement measures opposed to coronaviruses may have prevented up to 120,000 deaths in Europe. An imperial team used real-time knowledge from the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) on the number of deaths in 11 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and the United States. United.
The team’s historic report, which predicted 2.2 million deaths in the United States if no action is taken, influenced the White House’s strategy among countries.
“The Imperial College model, as we have been following for weeks, the model of maximum productivity and maximum precision.” Andrew Cuomo Governor of new York State
The team also warns New York State when it reopens after the lockout. Dr. Samir Bhatt leads the paintings with the state that will integrate the knowledge of checking and hospitalization to build a painting framework that provides a guiding precept for decision-making.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo praised the team’s modeling and personally thanked Dr. Bhatt: “The Imperial College model, as we have been following for weeks, the model of maximum productivity and maximum accuracy.
“I think Dr. Bhatt deserves all our thanks because they have actually helped us in this to date, and I need to thank him very much for taking the time to advise us, not only on how we have built our style to date, but about what is happening as we increase economic activity and begin to see the numbers change.”
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The team also warned in May that the virus is not yet controlled in 24 states.
The research, supported by the Brazilian FAPESP, has revealed that the coronavirus epidemic in Brazil is not yet under control. The team tested the five states of Brazil with the number of deaths and estimates that the degrees of infection of the population vary from 3.3% in Sao Paulo to 10.6% in the Amazon.
In Colombia, the team has partnerships with the National Institute of Health. The association began in 2017 and has already led projects on the spread of Zika and Chikungunya in Colombia. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, the team has been participating in real-time research and reaction to the virus.
“We are working to expand our collaboration in preparing for COVID and long-term pandemics,” Dr. Zulma M. Cucunub said.
The team estimated that some low- and middle-income countries may see HIV, tuberculosis and malaria deaths accumulating by 10, 20 and 36% respectively for five years as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Professor Ghani’s organization also works with countries that come out of isolation. More recently, they have analyzed Nigeria, which had closed the country’s state borders and is now facilitating some of them, integrating 40 homes, tactile location and specific responses.
Professor Timothy Hallett and Dr. Tara Mangal worked intensively with colleagues at the Malawi School of Medicine to provide epidemiological data to advise the national reaction to COVID-19.
Professor Hallett said: “In this context, we have been working in combination on models to explore whether the threat of dying would be greater in Malawi than in the UK, China or the US, and check to identify priorities so that fitness formula is better prepared.
Professor Joseph Mfutso-Bengo, from the University of Malawi, said: “The imperial college style presented at the National Extraordinary Think Tank on the response to COVID 19 organized through the Health Policy and Economics Unit of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Malawi. This style has contributed to public aptitude decision-making and reaction to COVID 19 in Malawi ».
In Zimbabwe, Professor Simon Gregson and Dr. Constance Nyamukapa of DIDE lead the Manicaland Public Health Research Center, a clinical study collaboration with the Biomedical Research and Training Institute (BRTI). The team provided mathematical models, led by Dr. Michael Pickles, to the Zimbabwean government to advise the national reaction to COVID-19.
Using DIDE’s SEIR “Squire” style and COVID-19’s national surveillance knowledge, and in collaboration with local partners, they produced a series of projections of the most likely course of the COVID-19 epidemic in Zimbabwe and the prospective effectiveness of election intervention strategies. .
These projections have been submitted to the Zimbabwean Cabinet and used in decisions taken to facilitate and, more recently, strengthen the national closure.
At the beginning of the pandemic, the team estimated the duration of the initial outbreak in China.
The team also analyzed the scenario in South Korea and learned that the country’s interventions temporarily controlled COVID-19 transmission, resulting in a smaller epidemic of “groups” of cases.
The team is also working with a variety of key partners to provide models and research of various applicable knowledge resources to measure propagation and have an effect on COVID-19 in Indonesia. The partnerships and collaborations come with the Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit (EOCRU), the Jakarta Provincial Health Department and the National Malaria Programme (PNLP) of the Indonesian Ministry of Health.
Bimandra Djaafara said: “A key task is to use Jakarta’s knowledge to evaluate the optimal use of various parameters to monitor transmission in Indonesia and beyond, adding indirect mortality measures such as funeral knowledge.”
“We then incorporated those estimates into COVID-19 spatial propagation models to help perceive the implications of the pandemic’s trajectory as epicenters move from giant cities to satellite cities and rural areas where attention is likely to be less.”
Researchers, Professor Nicholas Grassly, Dr. Nimalan Arinaminpathy and Dr. Margarita Pons-Salort are running with public fitness facilities in India and The Christian Medical College in Vellore to help plan other COVID-19 scenarios nationally and statewide. They also helped estimate the effect of other blocking stages on virus transmission (R number) and tested how tactile search can be more effective.
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