After holding a rite of success at the White House to formalize the normalization of Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, Trump President Donald John Trump Trump, crusader manager, tested positive for COVID-19 Trump gave Remdesivir as remedy for COVID infection -19 ICE launched the crusade billboard highlighting “immigration violators in general” MORE announced that up to six other states could soon normalize their own relations with the Jewish state. Hours later, the president revised that figure, saying that up to nine states would follow the example of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
It’s hard to see how he discovered any of those figures. Among the Gulf states, Oman appears to be the next candidate for normalization. Oman has long acted as an intermediary for Arab-Israeli interaction. Since 1996, it has housed the Middle East. Desalination Research Center (MERDC), whose executive committee includes representatives of several Arab states, Israel and Palestine. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin (Bibi) NetanyahuMORE made a not-so-secret in Muscat in October 2018 to meet with then-Sultan Qaboos.
Sudan may be another leading candidate for an agreement with Israel. His clandestine ties to Israel have not been as old or as continuous as some others, but unlike the rest of the Arab League, Sudan supported the 1978 Camp David Agreement. which is the basis of the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt.
However, Oman and Sudan would possibly be reluctant to act quickly, Muscat served as an intermediary not only between Israel and the Palestinians, but also between Washington and Tehran, and only one day can it do the same between Israel and Iran. The circle of relatives has not forgotten that Iran, in fact under the Shah, allowed it to end the Dhofar uprising in the 1970s. Formalizing relations with Israel would not only alienate Tehran, but would likely end the role as well. of Oman as an intermediary. To which he attaches wonderful importance. Similarly, Sudan is unlikely to succeed in a formal agreement with Israel unless Oman or some other state does so at around the same time.
Outside of Oman, however, the likelihood of other Gulf states normalizing relations with Israel is possibly much lower. Qatar disagrees with the United Arab Emirates and has a long history of friction with Bahrain. He is unlikely to sacrifice his ties with Turkey, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood to make peace with Jerusalem. In fact, Qatar has used its open relations with Hamas and its more secret relations with Israel to negotiate a ceasefire between the two implacable enemies, a special position similar to that of Oman and which Doha does not renounce either.
Kuwait does not seem willing to normalize relations with Israel. By contrast, Kuwaitis, who expelled all Palestinian citizens after the first Gulf War, are now staunch supporters of Palestine. As one Kuwaiti government official said this summer, “Kuwait . . . will be the last country to normalize with Israel.
Kuwait’s largest neighbor, Iraq, has no short-term interest in an agreement with the Israelis. Baghdad faces constant tension on the part of Iran and its proxy militias, and cannot bear its domestic political problems by forging an appointment with Jerusalem.
Saudi Arabia and Morocco are also rushing to negotiate an agreement with Jerusalem. Certainly, the Saudis have pointed out that they are uncomfortable with the resolve of one of their neighbors to normalize relations with the Jewish state. Riyadh has brazenly allowed El Al to fly over its territory. territory in the direction of Manama or Abu Dhabi and Dubai. In addition, without the peaceful green of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain would have signed any formal agreement with Israel, as Manama is fully aware that if the Saudis are dissatisfied, their armored formations are only a far sidewalk.
However, the stage in Riyadh is much more complex. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is said to be in favor of at least a few steps towards normalization, but his father strongly opposed it until there was an agreement with the Palestinians. The Saudi king, whose official name is the father of the two sacred mosques, considers himself a leader of the Muslim world, not, as Iran claims, only Sunni Arabs.
In fact, it was the Shiites who controlled Mecca in the 10th century, a fact that Iran has not forgotten. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, publicly insisted in 2018 that the Saudis relinquish control of sacred sites. An open Saudi agreement with Israel can simply energize the Iranian call for and perhaps win Tehran’s not only from Shia-dominated Syria and Lebanon, but also from some Sunni Arab states. In fact, al-Saud’s circle of relatives has only completely controlled Mecca since the 1920s, and in the Middle East, a century is a nine-day wonder.
King Mohammed VI of Morocco is also in no hurry to formalize his relations with Israel. Like King Hassan II before him, he maintained cordial but casual ties to Jerusalem and quietly welcomed Israeli leaders. King Mohammed regards the million Israeli Moroccans as his subjects. and many, if not most of them, see him in turn as their monarch. Israeli tourists constantly make stopovers in Morocco and avoid in kosher restaurants in Casablanca.
However, at the same time, the king is chairman of the Jerusalem Committee of the Islamic Conference and, as such, is an official advocate for the transfer of East Jerusalem and its two main mosques to the Palestinians. It simply cannot, and will not, move forward with complete normalization until Israel and the Palestinians succeed in a formal two-state agreement.
Some Arab or Muslim states may continue with normalization. Mauritania can also simply repair the full diplomatic relations with Israel it maintained between 1999 and 2010. Djibouti, where the United States (and China) has a basis, can also move towards normalization. Both are very deficient states, desperate for the economic and technical assistance that Israel can also offer them.
However, since, in any case, no Arab state has any incentive to move forward before the US presidential election, it is difficult to see President Trump’s prediction that nine or even five more Arab states are in a position to normalize their relations. with Israel it can be achieved. Of course, the president is no stranger to exaggeration and his announcement, in its original and positive form, is probably nothing but bragging.
Dov S. Zakheim is senior advisor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vice-President of the Board of Directors of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Undersecretary of Defense (Controller) and Chief Financial Officer of the Ministry of Defence from 2001 2004 and Deputy Under-Secretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.
Look at the thread.
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