Oil Falls Below $80 on China’s Combined Know-How

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Oil has still erased all year-to-date gains, and declining refining margins indicate weaker oil demand.

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– At least 48 VLCC tankers are sailing to the U. S. to collect oil for export, a six-year high as U. S. exports are expected to reach new all-time highs in the winter months.

– According to data from Kpler, U. S. crude exports in November are expected to be around 4. 35 million b/d, down from the all-time high of 4. 45 million b/d reached in March 2023.

– Weakening gas fissures in the United States has weakened market interest in WTI, the leading grade of sweet sugar in the Americas, driving increasing volumes of this grade in the markets.

– The ICE Brent-WTI spread recently widened to around $4. 5 per barrel as the US benchmark weakened, with WTI Midland ranking as the cheapest quality in the BFOETM basket for 16 consecutive trading days.

Market Players

– Saudi state-owned oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL: 2222) reported a 23% quarter-on-quarter decline in net profit to $32. 6 billion due to declining production levels, above market expectations.

– Chevron (NYSE:CVX), the U. S. primary oil company, is reportedly in talks with European corporations to supply them with LNG for up to 15 years, and Europe remains the largest customer for U. S. LNG exports.

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Tuesday 07 November 2023

The brief rise in prices triggered by OPEC’s extension of production cuts until the end of 2023 temporarily evaporated as a series of bad news from China led to a decline in overall sentiment. Even though China’s oil imports remain physically strong and October saw a more consistent monthly increase. up to 11. 53 million b/d, the prospect of depleting quotas and declining refining margins are the main reasons for the drop in Brent ICE to $84 per barrel.

Saudi Arabia is ending its production cuts. Saudi Arabia has extended its voluntary production cut by 1 million bpd until the end of this year, while Russia has cut exports by 300,000 bpd, thus maintaining existing voluntary restrictions.

Large U. S. companies are seeing ESG tension weaken. Teams of climate activists such as Follow This have struggled to pass climate-focused resolutions, receiving a minimum of ExxonMobil and Chevron shareholders, and BlackRock, Vanguard or JPMorgan voted against it.

Venezuela is the reactivation of oil services. Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, is in talks with local and foreign oil service corporations to restart idle aircraft that remain in position in the country’s oil fields; SLB (NYSE: SLB), Nabors Industries (NYSE: NBR) and Evertson all have devices that could simply be quickly reactivated. Related: U. S. RefinersU. S. Demand for Gasoline Will Reduce Utilization Rates as Gasoline Demand Cools

The UK needs annual licensing cycles. The UK government will impose annual oil and fuel licensing cycles in the North Sea after the COVID-induced “temporary” pause in 2020 caused a pause of more than two years, hampering overall upstream activity and replenishment of reserves.

The U. S. plans to fill the SPR in January. The U. S. Department of Energy has announced that it will seek to procure up to 3 million barrels of crude oil for delivery in January 2024 to fill depleted strategic petroleum reserves, which will be delivered to the Big Hill garage.

Investors are abandoning crude futures. Total WTI Nymex mild crude futures and feature short positions held through speculators more than tripled in the week ending Oct. 31 to 95,999 contracts, with speculative short positions now at their peak since August.

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China shows an LNG deal with Qatar. La Chinese state-owned oil company Sinopec (SHA: 600028) has signed a 27-year LNG deal with QatarEnergy, obtaining up to 3 million metric tons of LNG from the North Field expansion task in which the Chinese company will have a 5% stake.

Canada’s TMX is mandated to stop it. Canada’s energy regulator, the REB, ordered a halt to work on the Trans Mountain pipeline in a wetland near Abbotsford, B. C. , after locating several environmental breaches, marking a delay at the rear end of the project. Programming history.

Iranian exports are plummeting due to the conflict. Iran’s oil exports fell for a second straight month to 1. 4 million bpd, as the U. S. House of Representatives passed a bill (abbreviated as SHIP) that would sanction all foreign ports and refineries that handle Iranian crude.

OPEC is contemplating the plan for the Brazil club. OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais hinted that OPEC is making progress in negotiations to expand its club, saying Brazil could be interested in joining the oil producers’ organization, following the example of Azerbaijan, Malaysia or Brunei.

U. S. refiners are cutting production due to gas glut. Crude oil refineries are expected to achieve an average utilization rate of 90% to 91% in October-December, below near-peak capacity at the time and in the third quarter, as weak gas cracks and limited increases in diesel production curb their appetite. to go full throttle.

Kuwait would like the budget to reflect its five-year plan. Kuwait’s national oil company, KPC, would like $45. 7 billion to make up for the profit hole as it tries to meet its five-year spending plan, stressing that keeping annual dividends from moving them to the state is “inevitable” until 2027.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice. com

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