Despite continued bearish sentiment, oil markets have noticed some in the following week as a result of the sharp drop in crude oil inventories as reported through the EIA. Last Thursday, Brent’s costs reached its highest point from March at $43.23, ending at $42.78, up to 4.11% p/p, while WTI closed to $40.32, up to 4.54% p/p, with a spread of $2.46 that was reduced to $0.07 w/w.
Bullish data from the U.S. oil sector
U.S. advertising crude inventories decreased from 7.20 million p/p barrels to 533.5 million barrels, while the U.S. DPR attracted 1.7 million p/p barrels, or 655.4 million barrels. Crude oil intake to U.S. refineries increased through 0.193 mb/j w/w to 14.03 million b/d, refining cycles continue to decline 3.26 million b/d from what they were last year in June. U.S. oil production remains unchanged at 11 million barrels consistent with the day, due to declining drilling activity. On the other hand, the EIA report showed bearish data, with gas inventories expanding across 1.2 million barrels, counteracting the same call for summer seasonal behavior and expanding pressure.
In addition, the EIA estimates that current oil demand in the United States has increased to more than 18 million barrels/day from less than 14 million barrels/day in April, to an average of 20.01 million barrels/day last January.
In addition to the new upward sentiment, economic sentiment in the dominance of the euro rose to 75.7 this month from 67.5 in May, while all key sectors of the region’s economy showed signs of recovery, i.e. in retail and services. U.S. Hard Work Statistics They also reflect increased optimism, with an unemployment rate falling to 11.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In China, manufacturing activity has increased to March, with PMI figures expanding from 0.3 to 50.9 since a forecast of 50.4.
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Over the past week, the value declined due not only to the resurgence of COVID-19 instances in several countries, but also to low refining margins, the resumption of U.S. oil production. And the remaining core inventories relative to their average 5-year levels. The current coVID-19 instances have exceeded 11 million instances shown, with the United States, India and Brazil suffering from the disease epidemic. We hope that the war between positive economic knowledge and Covid-19 instances is likely to continue in the coming weeks as the call to the stage continues.
Improving OPEC compliance signs
Today, West Africa’s compliance remains a challenge to the organization’s cohesion. According to Energy Intelligence data, compliance in June would be 68%, for Angola, 15% for Congo, 80% for Nigeria and 31% for Equatorial Guinea. Angola, in particular, could not make up for its lost targets until the fourth quarter of this year. According to OPEC data, Angola produced 1.28 million barrels/day in May, 100,000 barrels/day above its target, and reduced it to 1.24 million barrels/day in June, which is still 60,000 barrels/day above its target, according to Reuters data. .
Saudi Arabia, which achieved a 140% compliance point, would have produced an average of 7.49 million b/d in June, up from 12 million b/d in April, according to a CEO of Saudi Aramco. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait followed Saudi Arabia with 120% compliance grades for the United Arab Emirates and 112% for Kuwait in June. In addition, Kazakhstan allegedly fulfilled its compliance commitment for the month of June with a production of 1.297 million barrels according to the day, according to official sources. Kazakhstan will continue to over-meet to offset its missing targets in May through additional discounts between July and September.
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Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait restarted production in the non-unusual unbiased zone last week, which has a production capacity of more than 500,000 b/d, 300,000 in Khafji and 250,000 b/d in Wafra. We expect the resumption of production to be a sign of relief from existing OPEC cuts, which are expected to decline next August to 7.7. millions of barrels/day, from an existing point of 9.6 million barrels/day.
Our reviews and knowledge forecasts
The average monthly value of Brent brent in June was $40.78, $0.78 above our forecast, while WTI averaged $38.33, $3.33 above our forecast. We still see an average value of $43 and $38 for Brent and WTI, respectively, July.
In addition, our forecast order for 2020 has been higher through 9.76 million barrels/day at an average of 90.35 million barrels/day. We are seeing an average third quarter demand of 92.33 million barrels/day, at an average demand of 79.33 million barrels consistent with the day in the current quarter. This is a relief of 9.99 million barrels consistent with the day of year to year. Demand in the fourth quarter is expected to average 94.33 million barrels/day, but drop 6.41 million barrels/day according to the year.
By Yousef Alshammari for Oilichelin
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