The continued erosion of what the idea of airline industry leaders in May and June was the beginning of an uptick in the passenger call not only to disrupt industry hopes for the rest of the year, but also indicates a higher likelihood that the call will remain traditionally weak in intensity in 2021.
“In fact, these are going through worrisome times,” says John Grant, a leading analyst at OAG, the British knowledge company formerly known as the Official Aviation Guide, which publishes all flight schedules for more than 700 airlines worldwide.”The next six weeks will (probably).) they find out how 2021 is seen for many airlines, airports, agencies and, indeed, government revenue if they don’t recover quickly.
Grant reported on Monday that last week, airlines had disposed of around 600,000 seats from the global market at the last minute due to weak demand.Together, they had planned to offer 59 million seats at first.This equates to only 51% more seats than the comparable week in August last year, but still much more than the just 26 million or 27 million seats that will be offered each week in April and early May, as the air request fell.cliff in reaction to the Covid-19 global pandemic.
But by stealing all of the 59 million seats planned last week, global airlines have stolen only 58.4 million seats.
This week, airlines planned to fly $58.4 million, but Grant expects them to cancel flights with an additional million seats, reducing this week’s total capacity to less than $58 million.year, just after the call to begin its strong decline.
Since then, the total number of seats presented in an international week has not exceeded 58 million until mid-July, which came in reaction to what control of the airline saw as market signals requiring significant expansion.number of new instances of larger Covid-19 in parts of the United States, India, Central and South Asia, Africa and parts of Europe, delaying the resumption of the call for that idea of the airline executives they would begin to see.
Over the next two weeks, global airlines plan to last offer 59.2 million and 62 million seats, respectively, according to schedules presented to the OAG.However, Grant says those totals will be particularly reduced over the next two weeks as airline planners adjust their declining demand sources.
“The next six weeks will likely shape capacity plans for the next 12 months for many airlines,” he warned.”The first signs seem good.”
In fact, they are not. In the United States, next week’s Labor Day weekend is the classic end to the peak summer vacation season, a peak season when it hasn’t really manifested in this record-breaking year. it will most likely be much worse this fall.
Beyond that, even in the United States and other European and Asian countries, the cash provided through governments to help airlines continue to function and keep their workers on the payroll will soon expire, in many cases, with the needs of airlines continuing to operate safely.exchange routes, for this monetary support. This indicates that airlines expect the call for business this fall to be much lower than in previous years and will in fact contribute to an even greater weakening of the call, as relief on extra flights and seats is reduced.characteristics and opportunities for entrepreneurs.
As a result, airlines are likely to start leaving service to various destinations once those work needs have disappeared and begin firing up to 60,000 workers as of October 1.
American Airlines, for example, has already made public its goal of disrupting service in at least 15 second- or third-tier cities where the call warrants continuous service.Rivals Delta and United are expected to do the same, but have still made such announcements..
In addition, corporations around the global finish are very reluctant to send their workers on the road, not only because of the concern that their workers are inflamed with Covid-19, but also because economies remain very weak and many corporations continue to lose huge sums of money.This means that fewer corporations can buy more goods or services, and as the conclusion of such donations and the benefits to consumers they create are the main drivers of business travel, as well as industry conventions and exhibitions, the downward spiral of calls for business travel is very likely to increase.
Businesses similar to conventions and exhibitions, which are generally positive for airlines in the fall and spring each year, will also be incredibly low this fall and next spring. Many of these occasions through the end of the year have been delayed or cancelled., and increasingly, the same is true for the main occasions of 2021.For example, the Geneva Motor Show, Europe’s largest annual new car show, which historically follows the famous North American Motor Show in Detroit, has already been canceled and the Detroit screen itself was rejected from January to June 2021, with the option of also being canceled on the table.
The OAG’s Grant said the recent reversal of carrier efforts to build capacity, transparent signs of very weak commercial demand, and the worse-than-normal drop in seasonal call as youth in the hemisphere North are back to school this year. All the falls mean that any recovery that might have been taking a position, and it is not transparent that such a call for construction was happening, has been exhausted.
“Despite the efforts of airlines around the world, it seems that the expected recovery of capacity and the next call have stalled,” he said.
“We could have possibly gotten to the point where some airlines are starting to pay for some people’s travel, providing loose seats and then generating additional revenue that supports service while restoring confidence in travelers,” Grant added. “It’s a crazy idea, however, on the other hand, those are crazy times.”
However, even the prospect of countering the lethal mix of very low demand and a very low price environment by generating so-called “supplementary income” through payments and the sale of other travel facilities or products was a huge success over the weekend.On Sunday, United Airlines announced that it would avoid charging travelers a payment for rescheduling their trip.United, which generally charged a $200 bill replacement payment, said its replacement policy would be permanent, skeptics prompted without delay that the definition of “permanent” in the relationship to any airline’s pricing policy was probably “until we replace our minds.”
However, now that United has joined Southwest, which has never charged a worthwhile ticketing replacement fee, by allowing passengers to replace reservations without penalty (they have to pay any difference in value that may exist), this probably means that Delta and American are likely to roll back their value as well.However, they might not have to make such an announcement immediately, as they are lately giving up ticket amendment fees in peak cases due to persistent customer considerations about the pandemic and, more recently, due to plan disruptions similar to Hurricane Laura and other weather conditions.Conditions. Events.
The number of seats flown last week in North America (Canada, Mexico and the US)USA) It was reduced by 47.2% compared to the week ending January 20 this year, the last week before the industry began to experience measurable effects of Covid-19.Pandemic. Worldwide, the least affected region in terms of capacity contraction is Northeast Asia (effectively China), where weekly capacity dropped by only 23.6% from the January 20 benchmark.In one component, that is the result of the Chinese government’s support to Chinese airlines and in the component (a) it is china’s still relatively immature, but still very large, air travel market.In Western Europe, airline capacity declined last week by 38.8% compared to 20 January capacity and in Eastern Europe fell by 23.3%.Elsewhere, however, airlines’ seating capacity last week was reduced by more than 50% from the january 20 benchmark.
Seat capacity in the United States last week fell by 45.2% from the 20 January benchmark, roughly in line with declining seating capacity in Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany and Indonesia among the 10 most sensitive domestic air transport markets.The number of passengers, which is called cargo, is complicated today, as airlines are unwilling to demonstrate the number of passengers they are carrying, it is idea that they are between 40% and 50%, but because the filling is expressed as a percentage of available seats, and because the number of seats available in the US is not 50%.UU.se has decreased by nearly 50%, meaning U.S. airlines carried only 20% to 25% of the number of passengers carrying in August.The fact that they use very low fares to fly so many other people explains why major U.S. airlines continue to lose tens of millions of dollars a day.
Of the 4 U.S. airlines in the world’s 10 most sensible airlines, Southwest Airlines has fallen the least: last week, it stole nearly 2.9 million seats, 23.6% less than the 3.8 million passengers in January week.20.Despite this obvious drop in capacity, Southwest remains, as it has been since April, the first airline to have seating conditions, as other giant airlines have declined further during the pandemic period.
“The less complex their operation is, the less their calls and profits have been interrupted,” Grant said, pointing not only at Southwest, but also to European airlines Ryanair and easyJet, two largely point-to-point economic airlines.fostered in large part through Southwest’s business plan.
“Major foreign airlines are as complex not only with their stellar connection operations as you do in the United States, but also with their overseas operations,” he said.”Take British Airways, for example. You will need to be aware of demand and market disorders, as well as all applicable government disruptions and fitness criteria lately on the roads, not only, for example, from India to North America, but from India to the UK, and then from the UK to North America…It is much more complex and expensive ».
China Southern Airlines has recently been in the world ranking in terms of seating capacity: it presented 2.5 million seats last week, 12.3% less than its total capacity on January 20.
American Airlines, now the world’s No.3 in terms of seating capacity, with 2.5 million seats last week, reduced its number of available seats by 47.5% from 4.8 million a week on January 20, its rival Delta is following with 2.45 million seats last.United Airlines has reduced the maximum of the US Big Four.Combined, they bring 3 out of 4 U.S. air passengers to the U.S.Hus Last week, United had just 1.5 million seats, 58.2% less than US’s 3.5 million passengers.The week of January 20, this makes United, right now, the eighth largest airline in the world in terms of seating capacity.
I wrote my first airline report in May 1982, on Braniff International Airways’ first bankruptcy application, which led to 26-year-old airlines and
I wrote my first airline report in May 1982, on Braniff International Airways’ first bankruptcy application, which led me to cover 26 years of airlines and similar topics at Fort Worth Star-Telegram and USA TODAY.deregulation: expansion, disruption and consolidation.I have also written two books on the subject: American Eagle: The Ascent of Bob Crandall and American Airlines, published in 1993, and (with co-author Ted Reed) American Airlines, US Airways and the Creation of the World’s Largest Airline, published in 2014.Today, I operate my own consulting and painting company as a freelance journalist in the fields of aviation, faith, travel, business, computer science, education and sports.Arkansas (Woo Pig sooie!) And the Baptist Theological Seminary of the Southwest.