SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — There is no doubt that North Korea’s chronic food shortages have worsened because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and hypotheses about the country’s lack of food trust have erupted as its most sensible leaders prepare to talk about the “very vital and pressing task” of formulating proper agricultural policy.
Unconfirmed reports imply that an unknown number of North Koreans have starved to death. But experts say there are no symptoms of mass deaths or starvation. They say the next assembly of the ruling Workers’ Party is likely aimed at bolstering North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as he pursues his nuclear weapons program in defiance of intense U. S. -led pressures and sanctions.
“Kim Jong Un cannot advance his nuclear program in a sound way if he fails to fundamentally solve the food issue, because the public would be undermined,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute of Far Eastern Studies. in Seoul. ” The assembly is being convened to solidify internal unity while collecting concepts to address food shortages. “
An expanded plenary assembly of the Workers’ Party Central Committee is scheduled for the end of February. Its express program is unknown, but the party’s hardline Politburo previously said that “a turning point is to dynamically promote radical changes in agricultural development. “
The assembly will be the party’s first plenary consultation convened only to discuss agricultural issues, although they are a key issue in larger assemblies in North Korea. Increasing cereal production was one of 12 economic priorities the party followed at a plenary assembly in December.
It is difficult to know the exact situation in the North, which has kept its borders practically closed during the pandemic. Food shortages and economic hardship have persisted since a famine killed thousands of people in the mid-1990s.
In his first public speech after succeeding his father as leader in late 2011, Kim vowed that North Koreans “will never have to tighten their belts again. “
In the early years of his rule, the economy grew modestly, with Kim tolerating some market-oriented activities and expanding exports of coal and other minerals to China, the North’s main best friend and trading partner. More recently, however, tougher foreign sanctions opposed to Kim’s nuclear program, draconian pandemic-related restrictions, and mismanagement have taken a heavy economic toll.
South Korea estimates North Korea’s cereal production last year was around 4. 5 million tonnes, down 3. 8 percent from last year.
North Korea wants about 5. 5 million tons of grain to feed its 25 million people, so it wants about 1 million tons each year. About part of the difference is offset by unofficial purchases of cereals from China. The rest is an unresolved deficit, Kwon said. Tae-jin, senior economist at the GS personal institute.
Kwon says limitations on the cross-border industry due to the pandemic have likely hampered China’s unofficial rice purchases. The North Korean government’s efforts to tighten controls and limit market activities have also worsened the situation, he said.
“This year, North Korea is facing its worst food scenario since Kim Jong Un took power,” Kwon said.
Koo Byoungsam, spokesman for South Korea’s Unification Ministry, said an unknown number of North Koreans died of starvation but said the challenge is not as serious as the famine of the mid-1990s, which stemmed from grass-based disasters, loss of assistance from the USSR and mismanagement.
The existing food challenge is more of a distribution challenge than an outright grain shortage, as much of the grain harvested last year has yet to be consumed, ministry officials said. seeking to confine the grain industry to state facilities.
The harsh measures taken by the Kim government to engage the pandemic have provided effective equipment to impose tighter control over the types of market activity that in the past helped foster stronger economic growth but may eventually erode the government’s authoritarian rule, analysts say. say.
Kwon said the current food shortages are unlikely to lead to mass deaths, as food is still available in markets, albeit at high prices.
North Korean monitoring teams have reported price increases for rice and maize, the two most important staples; Corn prices have recently stabilized in some areas.
“If North Korea really sees other people starving and facing chaos, it will not publicly say things as ‘a very vital and pressing task’ for an agricultural policy,” said Ahn Kyung-su, director of DPRKHEALTH. ORG, a target at Physical Problems in North Korea.
The North’s plenary assembly is “typical propaganda” meant to show that Kim struggles to live in situations and comes at a time when leaders want new fodder to burnish their image, in addition to the nuclear program and claims of a victory over the pandemic, Ahn said.
During the plenary meeting, Kwon said leaders would likely pressure local agricultural officials to increase cereal production without presenting effective responses to the food crisis. Targets will be set and officials could be punished for failing to meet them if food shortages worsen, Ahn. saying.
Yi Jisun, an analyst at the state-run Seoul National Security Strategy Institute, said in a report in January that North Korea had recently imported gigantic quantities of rice and flour from China, though it is unlikely to settle for U. S. food aid. , South Korea and Japan.
While noting that food disorders will have to be resolved at all costs, northern state media continued to tout its long-standing policy of “autonomy,” a strategy that avoids Western aid.
“The imperialists’ aid is a trap of plunder and subjugation designed to seize a hundred things after giving one,” the North’s main newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, said in an observation on Wednesday. “Building the economy by receiving this ‘poisoned candy’ is a mistake. “