Nigeria, rich in oil, doesn’t seem to have a respite. From an unemployment rate expected to rise to 33.5% until 2020, to a global pandemic that can push at least five million people into poverty and an inflation rate of about 14% and an imminent recession, Nigeria’s long-term seems terrible. in the coming month, according to the knowledge and reports of several agencies, adding the World Bank and the United Nations World Food Programme.
Africa’s largest economy has had to review its oil benchmark downward in the 2020 spending plan to $25 per barrel from $57 per barrel, cutting the planned crude production of 2.18 million to 1.94 million barrels per day to meet the current realities, said Zainab Ahmed, the Minister of Finance.
READ Nigeria VS Coronavirus: Gas Can Save Oil Collapse
Nigeria’s projected fiscal deficit also jumped to N5.2 trillion or 3.7% of GDP from an initial N2.2 trillion.
The increase in inflation in the country of almost two hundred million more people means that more Nigerians cannot eat, according to Nigeria’s knowledge agency.
“More than 37% of families report being exposed to the higher costs of primary food products, while nearly 12% of exposed families report having reduced their food intake to control the effect of crises,” the National Bureau of Statistics said. (NATIONAL STANDARDS OFFICE). Nigeria’s Living Criteria Survey published earlier this month.
READ THE Coronavirus SUITE: the consequences of Nigeria’s blockade by insecurity
Food inflation in Nigeria rose to 15.04% in May; the highest rate since March 2018, or in 26 months. That mixed with increasing poverty and lack of food availability risks fuelling protests in Nigeria, as well as other African countries, says Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk and strategic consulting firm based in Bath, United Kingdom. It adds: “rising food costs will fire up Africa unrest.”
Lagos state has noticed food costs by up to 50% in some cases. The increase in rice production (up to an average of 1.8 million tonnes between 2017 and 2018) remains insufficient to feed Africa’s most populous country. »
Most of the people who suffered an acute lack of food confidence in 2019 were in countries affected by conflict, climate change and economic crises, WFP says. Nigeria, one of the top 10 countries that recorded the worst food crises in 2019. The other nine were Yemen, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Syria, Sudan and Haiti, according to the World Report. about food crises.
The World Food Programme already sees COVID-19 doubling the number of people facing food crises unless swift action is taken. Some 265 million people in low and middle-income countries will be in acute food insecurity by the end of 2020, the UN agency said in April.
“Protest houses in Africa are in a position for one torrid year,” says Indigo Ellis, Africa’s head of research, in the company’s June 2020 Risk Insight report. “A typhoon of economic unrest and discontent with the government looms in the countries of the region, but the catalyst will be food … Declining government revenues and closure restrictions will have a devastating effect on food supplies. other people can hardly afford,” he adds.
READ THE Coronavirus SUITE: Counting economic prices in sub-Saharan Africa
Extreme poverty exacerbates the threat of unrest in five African countries, joining Nigeria, Kenya, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia and Mozambique; “Like the inability of nations to have enough food,” Maplecroft adds.
As padlocks ease, but the side effects of the coronavirus pandemic persist, our 2020-Q2 Civil Unrest Index projections mean that over the next six months, these countries are more likely than other sub-Saharan African countries to witness food. motivated riots. insecurity,” the company notes.
“COVID-19 is potentially catastrophic for millions of other people who are already just one thread. It’s a blow to millions of people who can only eat if they earn a salary. The closures and the global economic recession have already decimated their hen eggs. All that’s needed is a COVID-19 similar to one more surprise: push them overboard. We will have to act together now to mitigate the effect of this global catastrophe,” said Arif Husain, WFP’s chief economist.
READ THE Coronavirus SUITE: Nigeria’s various responses to COVID-19 control
The slow confinement measures in Lagos, Abuja and Kano – Nigeria’s major coVID-19 contagion states – “to keep those spaces the hotbeds of unrest in the coming months,” Maplecroft says.
Security experts who see armed atrocities already limited to food say conflicts are exacerbating poverty in the West African nation. Before the pandemic, 86.9 million Nigerians were living in excessive poverty according to a 2018 global poverty clock. The World Bank, which predicts Nigeria will enter its worst recession in 40 years as it projects that the economy will contract between 3.2% and 7.4% this year, said COVID-19’s surprise alone is expected to push another five million Nigerians into poverty. until 2020.
Before the pandemic, the number of deficient Nigerians is expected to increase to about two million, largely due to population growth. But this figure is likely to rise to seven million, and the poverty rate is expected to rise from 40.1% in 2019 to 42.5% by 2020, according to the World Bank report.
Already, 1 in 10 Nigerians, or more than 82.9 million people, live in poverty, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its report on poverty and inequality published in May. The statistics firm explained national poverty as an annual expense of less than 137,430 N (376.5 N consistent with the day or about $1 of $360/1). However, in updated knowledge to reflect the expected effect of the virus, the Global Poverty Clock reported on its online page that 50% of the country’s population, or 102.1 million people, now live in excessive poverty.
The combination of points dependent on the coronavirus pandemic, adding blocking measures and lowering global crude oil costs, has absolutely derailed the economy’s already fragile recovery after the 2016 recession. This has also led to a strong unemployment rate in Nigeria, said Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, who chairs the Nigerian Economic Sustainability Committee (CES).
READ ALSO Nigerian Vice President Osinbajo: Do you have friends in the political elite?
According to the vice president, 39.4 million task losses are expected through December due to the pandemic.
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Nigeria’s unemployment rate was already 23.1%, while underemployment was 16%, according to the NBS. In May 2019, Chris Ngige, Minister of Labour and Employment, predicted an unemployment rate of 33.5% until 2020.
More than 40% of Nigerians hired in non-agricultural companies reported a loss of revenue source in April-May 2020. Most sensiblely, a drop in remittances is likely due to family intake, as some of Nigerians live in families receiving funds. .
To help Nigeria emerge from the COVID-19 crisis, the World Bank recommends:
“The unprecedented crisis calls for an unprecedented political backlash from the Nigerian public sector as a whole, in collaboration with the personal sector, to save lives, livelihoods and lay the foundations for a strong economic recovery,” said Marco Hernández, senior economist at the World Bank. Nigeria.
The Africa report uses cookies to provide you with a quality user experience, measure and deliver personalized advertising. By continuing with The Africa Report, you agree to the use of cookies under the terms of our privacy policy. You can replace your personal tastes at any time.
1. Click on the back of your screen.
2. Click on to add The Africa Report to the Home screen
3. Define the name of the shortcut and validate