A new study from Northwestern University, led by Bernard Black of Pritzker Law School and Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management, suggests that the U. S. could have saved many lives by authorizing a COVID-19 booster dose earlier, as well as through the spread of more potent vaccines. Public health messages. The study uses Israel as a counterfactual example of what the U. S. could have accomplished.
Since COVID-19 vaccines became available in early 2021 and a booster dose became available in late 2021, the US has struggled to convince its citizens to get vaccinated and then receive a booster dose. Israel achieved greater participation. When it came to booster doses, public messaging about fitness in the US was confusing, leading to many older adults, those who needed a booster dose, not receiving one.
The study, titled “Covid-19 Drivers: If the U. S. Had Matched Israel’s Speed and Involvement, About 29,000 American Lives Would Have Been Saved,” published in the journal Health Affairs.
The researchers estimate that through June 30, 2022, the U.S. could have saved 29,000 lives among already vaccinated people by authorizing boosters sooner, and matching Israel’s uptake level and uptake speed. Moving more slowly on boosters than the U.S. actually did, as some advocated, would have cost many additional lives. “Every week mattered,” Black said. Booster rollout saved 41,000 lives through June 2022, compared to no booster authorization.
To compare the two nations, researchers used U.S. national data on vaccination and mortality rates, data on vaccine effectiveness from Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, (where they were able to link vaccination and mortality records) and Israeli data on vaccination rates.
The initial two-dose series of mRNA vaccines was initially found to be highly effective, but its effectiveness has waned over time, either against COVID-19 infection or severe disease. Israel was one of the first countries to vaccinate its population in early 2021. And he was also the first to see the effects of the fall.
In mid-2021, Israel faced an exponential increase in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, many of them among those already vaccinated. In response, Israel legalized a booster dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in late July 2021, with a strong public fitness message about the importance of the booster dose.
“The booster crusade has reversed the wave of Israeli infection,” Black said. “Israel has a laboratory for the rest of the world on vaccine tapering and the usefulness of a booster dose in reducing hospitalization and death rates among others over the age of 60. Israeli evidence has shown that boosters are effective and very safe. “
The U. S. has moved more slowly to allow the recall. It legalized boosters just two months later, and boosters were largely limited to others over 65 or with primary health complications. The U. S. regulatory formula requires FDA approval before vaccines and boosters can be available. However, the FDA has resisted acting quickly, with strong domestic opposition to approving boosters.
“The FDA is a science-based agency,” Black said. “They are accustomed to proceeding slowly and carefully with the review of new drugs and vaccines and approving them if their benefits and protection are firmly established. “
The study illustrates the dangers of regulatory caution in the midst of a pandemic. “Israel had very credible knowledge, which it shared with U. S. regulators, but the FDA was looking to see more U. S. knowledge and not rely primarily on Israel,” Black said. “This American knowledge didn’t exist yet, because the U. S. was vaccinating its population more slowly than Israel, and Israel didn’t have the ability to gather knowledge in real time. “
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