According to my new report, the last quarter saw more opportunities for coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) which was lost internationally with high collateral human prices and economic damage. How has the Philippines fared overall?
My first Covid-19 report (April 2020) showed that the pandemic is largely due to problems beyond containment and crisis control in Western Europe and the United States.
The new report “The Tragedy of Lost Opportunities” shows how even more opportunities were missed in the last quarter, due to old debacles and unwelcome departures, persistent political mistakes and collateral human prices, and economic damage around the world. greater savings.
At the current rate, the accumulated instances shown can exceed 25 million as of September. Without slowing down, those cases can reach 50 million to 60 million and deaths to 1.5 million to 1.7 million by the end of the year.
COVID-19 cases showed consistency with millions (log), from 26 January to 8 August 2020 (log) Source: European WHO, Difference Group.
Right now, the worst regional crisis is in the Americas. Consider this: if the U.S. states were sovereign entities, then in August, adjusted to the length of the population, the U.S. states represented the cold of 23 of the 25 primary economies affected by the virus in the world, along with Louisiana, New York, Florida, and New Jersey. Mississippi continued through Chile.
Even the populous Brazil, which had the highest number of cases shown after the United States, were U.S. states. Like Iowa and Connecticut with a population of 3 to 4 million.
In the Americas, containment problems in the United States, poor crisis control, and premature exits, combined with poorer economies and weaker fitness systems in Latin America, have led to the world’s worst regional crisis. However, Canada’s record with the United States suggests that precautions would possibly work, despite the dangers in the region.
In my report, I assessed the slow evolution of Covid-19 in all economies of organization of income sources around the world in terms of timing of the first official cases, accelerated spread, real reproductive number (Rt) in 3 periods, transmission classification, curve flattening, new accelerations and forward-looking susceptibility to new waves.
Here’s what I discovered: while the original virus was officially registered for the first time in China, it was largely contained on the mainland and in the regional community from January to February. While in the moment phase, the spread of the pandemic was driven by imports from Europe, containment problems in the United States, and complex economies, which promoted early but first, undetected local transmissions.
In particular, unwelcome launches and continued political turmo drowsy have caused viral accelerations in the summer and are most likely increasing sensitivity to additional accelerations and secondary waves.
Worse, the two stages of Covid-19 progression would possibly have been amplified through a recently discovered mutation. In China and Asia, the virus was first controlled using the original “D” variant. But in March, a new variation “G” seems to have evolved in Europe and the United States, major infections elsewhere last spring.
If this discovery is valid, the implications can also be worrying and complicate effective vaccination. Emerging and future economies may soon face more virulent virus strains than restrictions and restrictions have controlled so far.
If the effect of the pandemic is population-adjusted (total number of cases consistent with 1 million), Singapore is the most sensible leader in Southeast Asia, with more than 9,300 cases. It is followed through the Philippines (almost 1,100 cases); Indonesia, Brunei and Malaysia; Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Myanmar and Laos.
However, much in the tests (adjusted to the population). The more countries are tested, the more likely cases and vice versa. Among high- and middle-income economies, small Singapore is also the leader (more than 250,000), followed by Brunei (94,000) and Malaysia (30,600).
Among low-middle-income economies, the Philippines (15,200 or more) received more evidence than others, including high-middle-income Thailand (10700), followed by Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, and Myanmar (2000-6000). In relative terms, even the tests carried out in Japan constitute only part of those of the Philippines.
In high-income economies, peak countries began to flatten the curve in the overdue spring (in South Korea even earlier). On the other hand, the curve has become fat in the United States, while in Japan, limited evidence has distorted the true likely maximum margin.
In high- and high-middle-income economies, the pandemic erupted in the first quarter, while low-middle-income economies have intensified since the last quarter (see updated chart).
Until recently, instances have continued to increase alarmingly in the Philippines, partly due to higher network transmissions and partly due to testing. But with the return of the modified imturn outd network quarantine, the imturn outputs may simply be running. However, it is too early to assign a trend and whether it will remain and the rate of positivity (the percentage of other people who tested positive for all those who were evaluated) remains higher.
Even the existing baseline situation, as indicated in the International Monetary Fund’s June 2020 Global Economic Outlook, remains overly optimistic. Minimizes the effect on the dark past global economic landscape. The destructive effect of secondary viral waves is underestimated. And this largely suspends the negative effect on the escalation of the American Cold War opposed to China and several other countries.
If the economic scenario is traditionally bad today, it may get worse in the coming months. Measured through the decrease in expected increases in line with the source of capita income, a shortcut close to life criteria, the effect has already been devastating on peak economies and worse in which they also face pre-pancemic challenges.
Among high-income economies, several countries would likely face 4 to seven years of lost progress, while in outliers, beyond demanding situations, they would contribute to further falls (e.g. Italy and Japan).
Among low-middle-income economies, even performing companies can lose between two and four years (India, Kenya, the Philippines, and Vietnam), while others may lose only a decade (Nigeria).
Due to the low number of tests and the number of undervalued instances of Covid-19, devastation in poor and low-income economies can be much worse than is recognized lately.
Strong multilateral global action would be preferable (and only a fraction of the cost) of unilateral actions, which aggravate the damage of the pandemic.
With the Spanish flu, it was not the first wave that proved fatal, but the second. If such painful classes have not been learned to date, a primary crisis will be learned, due to a prolonged pandemic and a multi-year global depression.
Dr. Dan Steinbock is a global strate strater identified in the global multipolar and founder of Difference Group. He has worked at the Institutes of India, China and America (USA), the Institutes of International Studies in Shanghai (China) and the Centre of the European Union (Singapore). For more information, see https://www.differencegroup.net/