April 30, 2024 – In recent weeks, COVID-19 forecasters have reported on a new set of variants detected in wastewater surveillance. Called FLiRT, they threaten to cause a new wave of COVID infections, which recently bottomed out after peaking in December.
Models released last week by Jay Weiland, a knowledge scientist who has predicted COVID surges since the start of the pandemic, warn that a surge is looming on the horizon. “He’s someone that a lot of experts like me stick to because he’s been pretty accurate so far,” Megan L. said. Ranney, MD, dean of the Yale School of Public Health.
Ripe for reinfection
What’s more, Ranney said, FLiRT also has worrisome features, such as changes in the spike protein, that play a role in helping SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, gain a foothold, colonize the body and produce other people who are more vulnerable. Sick.
Host vulnerability is another factor of concern, given that only 22% of U. S. adults have received the latest COVID vaccine. And since many other people probably wouldn’t have contracted the virus for a while, they can get reinfected.
“We have a population of other people whose immunity is waning, which increases our susceptibility to a wave,” Thomas A. said. Russo, MD, Chair of the Department of Infectious Diseases at the University’s Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences. in Buffalo.
There’s also troubling data showing that even those who won the last COVID booster probably wouldn’t oppose a potential surge well. An initial study published this week by researchers at Harvard University shows compelling evidence that the latest booster is not holding up. to JN. 1, the most recent dominant variant, and its FLiRT offshoots. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed.
JN. 1 spread around the world over the winter and still accounts for 95% of COVID cases in the U. S. UU. Su lineage is the Omicron variant, which has been circulating in one form or since 2021. However, new variants may be introduced temporarily. JN. 1 recorded almost no cases in mid-November, but temporarily rose to 21% in December and 85% in the third week of January.
In recent years, COVID surges have also followed a predictable pace, with a strong winter wave and a lower peak in mid-to-late summer, largely due to other people spending so much time in air-conditioned, poorly ventilated indoor environments. “As the weather . . . the outside is getting warmer,” Russo said.
“Given all of these points, if I were to look into my crystal ball, I would say we’re going to have a wave or a buildup of cases and hospitalizations over the summer,” he said.
Protecting Yourself from a Summer Outbreak
While there are questions about how the new booster will hold up against newer variants, staying up to date on vaccinations is still the most productive way to protect yourself. For those who haven’t earned the newest booster, time is running out. And for those who are over 65 or immunocompromised, the CDC recommends getting an updated COVID booster four months after your last booster.
“Assuming the virus continues to evolve and our immunity wanes, the general population will most likely still want an annual booster dose for themselves,” Ranney said.
And many experts want to take the virus more seriously. In general, if you’re sick, don’t go to work, don’t faint, don’t travel, and give yourself time to recover so you don’t infect everyone around you. Sick. The CDC recommends that others stay home and isolate until at least 24 hours after the fever subsides and symptoms improve overall. And if you’re in a high-trafficked, poorly ventilated area, a mask is still an undeniable option and effective hedging tool.
New remedies such as the monoclonal antibody Pemgarda, which the FDA granted emergency use authorization in March, may also help protect others who are particularly vulnerable to a spring or summer surge, said Shirin Mazumder, MD, an infectious disease doctor at Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcare in Memphis. The medication should be taken as a preventative measure in anyone who is moderately to severely immunocompromised. The medication is administered intravenously prior to the patient’s potential exposure to COVID. It’s designed for those who probably won’t expand enough. immunity and possibly need greater protection against the virus.
“It’s another tool that other people can use in addition to getting vaccinated and taking other precautions,” Mazumder said.
The development of long COVID
Vaccination is also important for long COVID coverage, according to a March 2024 study published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. And for Grace McComsey, MD, who leads the long-running COVID RECOVER study at University Hospitals Health System in Cleveland, it’s important that it’s not the threat of acute illness that’s most alarming.
He said long COVID is the most important factor for those who haven’t been as afraid of acute COVID. A study recently published through The Lancet Infectious Diseases showed that many end up with long COVID, a chronic condition marked by fatigue. , mental confusion, and central and pulmonary disorders, have not necessarily had a severe attack of infection.
The number of long COVID cases is also rising: 6. 8% of Americans reported long COVID symptoms, up from 5. 3% in 2022. A total of 17. 6% said they had it at some point, according to a CDC survey. “Long COVID is what I’m most concerned about right now, given that it’s expanding in numbers and can lead to chronic disease, even if it’s not an acute infection,” McComsey said.
We don’t know for sure what this variant will do, but we do know that COVID has so far been successful in spreading disease and evading immunity. It’s hard to know for sure if this is the next variant to come to the fore. , but if it’s not this one, then some other variant will be, McComsey said.
“We have to respect this virus and take it seriously, because whether we like it or not, it’s here and it’s still making other people very sick,” he said.
© 2005 – 2024 WebMD LLC, an Internet logo company. All rights reserved. WebMD provides medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Learn more.