Dec. 7, 2023 – No one planning holiday gatherings or travel needs to hear this, but the emergence of a new COVID-19 variant, JN. 1, has experts worried, who say it may threaten those good times.
The good news is that recent studies recommend that the 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccine appears to oppose this new variant. But so few people have received the newer vaccine — less than 16% of U. S. adults — that some experts recommend it. It’s time for the CDC to urge the public who haven’t received it to do so now, so the antibodies can work first.
“There is a significant wave [of JN. 1] here and it can be mitigated with a maximum recovery rate and mitigation measures,” said Eric Topol, MD, professor and executive vice president at Scripps Research in La Jolla, California, and editor. in-chief. Medscape, WebMD’s sister site.
In the meantime, COVID symptoms have to rise again. Nearly 10,000 more people were hospitalized with COVID in the U. S. U. S. deaths in the week ending Nov. 25, the CDC said, a 10% increase from last week.
Who’s Who in the Family Tree
JN.1, an Omicron subvariant, was first detected in the U.S. in September and is termed “a notable descendent lineage” of Omicron subvariant BA.2.86 by the World Health Organization. When BA.2.86, also known as Pirola, was first identified in August, it appeared very different from other variants, the CDC said. That triggered concerns it might be more infectious than previous ones, even for people with immunity from vaccination and previous infections.
“JN. 1 is the son of Pirola,” said Rajendram Rajnarayanan, PhD, assistant dean and associate professor at the State University of Arkansas’ New York Institute of Technology, which maintains a database of COVID-19 variants. The BA. 2. 86 variant and its offspring are of concern because of mutations, he said.
What is the scope of JN. 1?
As of Nov. 27, according to the CDC, BA. 2. 86 is expected to account for 5% to 15% of variants circulating in the U. S. “The expected public fitness of this variant, adding its JN. 1 branch, is low. “the CDC said.
Currently, JN. 1 is reported more in Europe, Rajnarayanan said, but some countries have more knowledge than others. “It’s probably spread to every country after COVID,” he said, due to mutations in the Spike protein that make it less difficult to bind to and infect.
Wastewater data suggests the variant is helping to fuel a wave, Topol said.
Vaccine efficacy against JN. 1 and new variants
The new monovalent XBB. 1. 5 vaccine protects against XBB. 1. 5, the Omicron subvariant, but also against JN. 1 and other “emerging” viruses, a team of researchers reported Nov. 26 in a study on bioRxiv that has not yet been peer-graded. revise.
The updated vaccine, when given to uninfected people, boosted antibodies about 27-fold against XBB.1.5 and about 13- to 27-fold against JN.1 and other emergent viruses, the researchers reported.
Although even the first doses of the COVID vaccine will likely help against the new JN. 1 subvariant, “if you were given the XBB. 1. 5 booster, it will be more against this new variant,” Rajnarayanan said.
Low vaccination in 2023-2024
In November, the CDC released the first detailed estimates of those who did. As of Nov. 18, less than 16% of U. S. adults had done so, and only about 15% said they planned to receive it.
Coverage among children is lower, with 6. 3% of children up to date with the latest vaccine and 19% of parents reporting that they plan to vaccinate their children in 2023-2024.
Predictions, Mitigation
While some experts say a peak due to JN.1 is expected in the weeks ahead, Topol said it’s impossible to predict exactly how JN.1 will play out.
“This will be a repeat of November 2021,” Rajnarayanan predicted when Omicron appeared. Four weeks after the World Health Organization declared Omicron a virus of concern, it has spread around the world.
Mitigation measures can help, Rajnarayanan said. Suggested:
SOURCES:
CDC: “Variants Are Occurring,” “CDC Updates on Respiratory Viruses. “
Rajendram Rajnarayanan, PhD, assistant dean and associate professor at the School of Osteopathic Medicine at the State University of Arkansas, Jonesboro, New York Institute of Technology.
Eric J. Topol, MD, professor and executive vice-president, Scripps Research, La Jolla; editor-in-chief, Medscape.
World Health Organization: “Initial Risk Evaluation of BA.2.86 and its sublineages, 21 November 2023.”
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