With torrential rain and low clouds, there will be no Russian drones flying over its remote outpost in northern Ukraine ahead of the border.
Grasping a monocular and wearing a hood that monitors his eyes, the guard proudly unveils his NLAW anti-tank missile launcher.
“Our main objective is to prevent them from a (new) invasion. But if it happens back here, we will be in a position to prevent the enemy from entering the border and prevent them from entering,” the 33-year-old said. who did not understandgives his name.
The Senkivka border crossing is very close. Crossing 3 lanes in a “Y” shape, it exits northwest of Belarus and northeast of Russia with Ukraine to the south.
This is where the Russian Armored Division stepped in when war broke out on February 24, crossing Ukrainian territory like a knife in butter.
From there, the Russian army reached the gates of Chernigiv, capital of the homonymous region, a few kilometers (55 miles) to the south.
But they were never able to take the city, repulsed by fierce Ukrainian resistance despite being bombed.
In early April, the Russians withdrew from the north to refocus on the countryside and southern Ukraine.
Since then, Ukraine has been watching Senkivka like a hawk, as well as its nearly 900-kilometer border with Belarus, whose territory served as a rear base for Moscow’s forces.
On October 20, the Ukrainian military said the risk of a new offensive from the north was “growing,” indicating intensified “aggressive rhetoric” from its northern neighbors, who are close allies.
A few days earlier, Minsk announced that up to 9,000 Russian troops and some 170 tanks would be deployed in Belarus as part of a joint task force to protect its borders.
“If you need peace, you have to prepare for war,” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko declared on October 10, accusing Ukraine of “planning attacks” against his country.
So far, Minsk has joined the fighting in Ukraine.
Inside the well-fortified canoe that was installed after the Russian withdrawal in April, a border guard in his thirties nicknamed “Lynx” says he believes there is a “50-50 chance” of a new Russian offensive.
“The likelihood of an attack will be maximum here near the border, with a neighbor like that,” he said, a gun slung over his shoulder.
“One hears the constant sound of (Russian) artillery fire here. . . Sometimes it is calm, but since early autumn the enemy is more active,” he said.
But now “there are more (Ukrainian) positions and more fortifications, everything is more serious now. . . We have an idea of all the imaginable characteristics to prevent what happened before from falling again,” he insists.
About thirty kilometers to the south is Gorodnia, the first city occupied by the Russians on the first morning of the invasion.
Mayor Andriy Bogdan told AFP he hoped the events of February 24 “will not be repeated,” even if such a risk “exists,” pointing the finger at Russian troops in Belarus.
But now the scenario “is absolutely different” from then, when the city – which had 21,000 inhabitants before the war – was “almost absolutely unprotected”.
“We depend on our border guards and all our defense forces. Today they are here and in a position to fight,” Bogdan said.
When the Russians arrived, citizens made a show of nonviolent resistance, he said, proudly showing a video showing citizens with Ukrainian flags in front of armored cars to prevent them from advancing.
In the end, the Russians stayed out of the city when they occupied the area.
The owner of a grocery store, Svetlana, in her fifties, dismisses the concept of “that Belarus can attack us”.
“We live near the border, we are friendly nations. I have a brother in Belarus and a sister in Moscow,” he told AFP.
“At first, not even my sister could have happened. But they perceive it and help us,” he said.
“I hope it ends as soon as possible. “