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(Bloomberg) — It wasn’t long after Russia attacked Ukraine for French Colonel Clement Torrent to get his orders: He had six months to build a base for 1,000 troops on NATO’s eastern border.
He and some two hundred infantrymen from France, Belgium and the Netherlands are now busy leveling a hill in the Romanian region of Transylvania. to Cincu, about 260 kilometres (162 mi) north of Bucharest by road. “This is a sign of solidarity. An alliance will have to be tangible.
As Western powers rush to confront the risk posed by Vladimir Putin, Russia’s war against its neighbor has responded to a principle that North Atlantic Treaty Organization states have been asking for years: Will older members like the United States, France and Germany fight for the less wealthy former communist allies if they are attacked.
But he has raised others, adding whether the alliance is doing enough to deter Russian expansionism after years of underinvestment and ignored warnings, and whether the effort for the Black Sea region that was once overlooked deserves to have taken a stand long ago.
Six months after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO is firmly focused on how to thwart Russia in the southeast corner of Europe and prevent one of the continent’s poorest regions from adjusting to its comfortable security weak spot.
The Black Sea separates Europe from Asia and is surrounded by Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and Georgia. It is an essential industrial address for agricultural products from Ukraine and Russia and connects with the Mediterranean Sea the Bosphorus Strait in Turkey. .
Moscow has prioritized southeastern Europe, according to Matthew Orr, a security analyst at Stratfor. Their buildup there “shows how involved the Russians are in this region, how much they need to have a strong military presence there, to which NATO will have access. “to respond,” he said.
For years, Eastern European leaders had warned that Russia risked forming after Moscow attacked Georgia in 2008. Then, in 2014, Putin started a war in the eastern Donbass region of Ukraine and seized Crimea.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has stepped up its military functions in the Black Sea, displacing its ground forces, bolstering its air defenses and modernizing its maritime fleet, while stepping up its activities in war zones, adding Libya and Syria, where it has a naval base.
“The Black Sea itself is Russia’s gateway to water, especially the Mediterranean,” said Iulia Joja, director of the Black Sea program for the Washington-based Mid East Institute think tank. “This is Russia’s gateway to allocate its strength and strength in the Middle East, Africa and beyond. “
Just weeks after the February 24 invasion, the alliance agreed at a summit in Brussels to create 4 new battle groups for Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia, complementing the 4 it had deployed in Poland and the Baltic states from the so-called “cable trap”. ” Get closer.
Romania, a country of about 19 million people that has an approximately 640-kilometer border with Ukraine, was already home to about 1,000 NATO soldiers, mostly Americans, before the war, with the Black Sea base at Mihail Kogalniceanu serving as a base. transit point for conflict zones in the Middle East.
Following Russia’s attack on Ukraine, NATO allies have a particularly larger presence on the alliance’s eastern borders, deploying more troops, planes and ships. The plan now is to create garrisons in the remaining NATO border states where new groups of foreign forces comprise 1,000 troops will be rotated. In addition, allies will identify sets on the floor that can temporarily register for troops already on the floor in the eastern states if they so choose.
This additional presence is something that the Baltic States and Poland have been advocating for years. Russia has threatened to react, but has yet to take any concrete action.
By creating links with the host country’s army and pre-positioning weapons, ammunition and heavy equipment, those forces can multiply to form a 5,000-man brigade in a matter of days, said Col. Flavien Garrigou Grandchamp, France’s senior national representative in Romania. .
“We are preparing to fight with Romanians, Americans and other contingents,” he said. “In the worst case, if that happens, we will fight. “
Hundreds of thousands of allied troops are currently more prepared, and this is expected to be further formalised under NATO command as part of a major overhaul of the alliance’s defences agreed by leaders in Madrid in July.
While top officials doubt Russia will directly attack a NATO member, the alliance now plans to deploy foreign troops to its borders for “many years to make sure the scenario stabilizes,” Garrigou Grandchamp said.
This will require investments, which Romania and its southern neighbour Bulgaria lack.
The former communist countries joined NATO in 2004, 3 years before becoming members of the European Union. They are still looking to close a wealth hole with their wealthier partners, hampering efforts in everything from refugees to helping Ukraine export grain.
“It’s not just a defense issue, it’s a food security issue,” Romanian Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca said in an aug. 2 interview. . “
However, respecting them was a quick challenge for Torrent and his team of army engineers.
The main bridge of the city of Cincu, which is located in central Romania, is in such a terrible state that holes cross the asphalt to reveal the river flowing underneath. Trucks have to swerve through sunflower fields to move tens of thousands. of tons of fabrics to and from the structure in the most sensitive of the hill.
Romania has just over 950 kilometres of motorways, placing it last in the EU in terms of a constant share of capital. of many small towns and villages, the majority of the population lives on subsistence agriculture and state aid.
Aurel Sorin Suciu, the mayor of Cincu, is counting on the Bucharest government to pave the city’s streets and an EU-funded school allowance for citizens of the military base, plus subsidies to set up restaurants and housing.
“It’s very complicated to change people’s mentality and convince them to sell two cows and renovate two rooms to make more money,” Suciu said in his main square in Cincu.
The other, more vital investment domain is the Romanian army. Most NATO members have long failed to fulfill the alliance’s purpose of spending at least 2% of its gross domestic product on defense. But Romania has achieved that goal since 2015 and will build it up to 2. 5% next year as it prepares to spend everything from armored worker transport vehicles and fighter jets to tanks and submarines.
In total, the bill for army purchases will amount to at least 12 euros ($12. 2). The most important detail to date has been a 4-euro Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery that will be operational this year.
The French base in Cincu is also expected to operate at full capacity until the end of the year, as planned. This underscores not only the shift in NATO’s eastern membership, but also a global shift as the entire alliance pivots to confront Russia.
“We are the closest French infantrymen deployed in the shock zone,” said Col. Christophe Degand, commander of the Advanced Presence war organization and the 8th Marine Parachute Regiment. “If a spark is deployed and some other people, it must be there. “. “
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