“When you have an endemic infection in the population, what you want is for the vaccine to succeed in collective immunity, which means you want to vaccinate between 60% and 80% of the existing population,” McCabe said. “If you can’t do it. ” Buy it at a point that would get the immunity of the herd and the public will pay to get the immunity of the herd, then the price is much lower. “
McCabe noted that the estimated studies and progression of a new drug is $1. 3 billion, based on studies developed through Tufts University. This number takes into account the unrecoverable prices of almost 90% of potential drugs that are never marketed.
McCabe said pharmaceutical corporations that have a vaccine for sale would do more to see it as some kind of “loss leader” to revive the economy.
“The component of making sure your vaccine is widely used is so that you can then sell your other drugs that you’ve invested in development, because the economy is working again,” McCabe said.
“Pharmaceutical corporations would be reckless, of fundamental personal interest, to a point that impedes collective immunity,” said McCabe, who chairs the COVID Economics Working Group of the Royal Society of Canada. “I would inspire government negotiators to inform them of this.
Canada vs. Canada United States
With more than a hundred vaccine projects underway worldwide, and nearly 30 already in clinical trials, several countries, including the United States and many in Europe, have ordered in advance a lot of millions of doses of the most promising drugs, hoping to start. vaccination until the end of this year. Last month, Canada announced agreements with potential vaccine providers Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson
In the United States, where Americans or their insurance companies will be charged the vaccination fee, the charge estimates are consistent with the variety of doses from $20 to $145, which would increase the value of enough doses to 37. 6 million Canadians on a bill of approximately C$4. at the back of the scale, nearly 10% of Canada’s total pharmaceutical billing year. McCabe said. But he predicted that the calculation will be very different in Canada, where purchases will be made through the public physical care system.
“This is a very complex pricing proposition to understand,” McCabe said. “What is the dating between the other degrees of population policy and the relief of the threat of having an epidemic, with all the economic dislocation that accompanies it?”
Part of this price will depend on the effectiveness of the vaccine to prevent infection and the duration of this immunity, he said.
“If an individual’s immunity is not sustainable, then achieving collective immunity becomes the most productive strategy from an individual’s point of view,” McCabe explained. “If it’s like the flu vaccine that’s a one-season treatment, then the sustainable value will probably be much lower. “
Competitive pressures
To date, Canada has approved only one drug, remdesivir, to treat patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms, after a US study in a US study. But it’s not the first time It was shown to reduce recovery time by 31%. But McCabe hopes more antiviral drugs will be obtained soon. , and will put more down pressure on the price of any possible vaccine, because if remedies do not prevent the virus from spreading, they would make it less fatal – and less expensive – for people, fitness care systems and economies.
He said that even non-pharmaceutical measures, such as the use of a protective mask, could, after an additional study, become effective and affordable methods for governments seeking to combat COVID-19.
“Governments are reluctant to oppose the lobby of individual liberty over this falsified evidence, but when the evidence is transmitted, I suspect they will be willing to impose masking and that will make a big difference,” McCabe said.
“If masking can take infection rates to a point where the economy can return to something normal, other people can return to work, schools can reopen, and the benefits of a vaccine are much less important,” he said.
Big sticks and silver balls
McCabe noted that if a vaccine manufacturer refuses to settle for a moderate value offer, the federal government may decide to create national patent emergency legislation, which was amended at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis.
“If the patent owner refuses to settle for moderate value for the use of a drug or generation, and generation is obviously vital to our national security, then the government may include a compulsory license and an entry into an agreement with the organization to manufacture and obtain,” he explained.
“It’s a stick the government has in the corner while negotiating prices,” he said.
Trudeau’s government recently signed a letter from world leaders encouraging global cooperation to ensure that a vaccine is manufactured and distributed equally around the world. Canada also introduced its call as one of 75 evolved countries that would pay for a publicly invested vaccine and source 90 upcoming countries.
McCabe said this makes sense to Canada because our country will be vulnerable to more epidemics unless global immunity is affected.
“We want to succeed in an agreement that promises global access (to a vaccine) because either everyone opposes COVID-19 or no one is completely Array,” he said.
As the race continues to expand an effective vaccine, McCabe encouraged Americans to comply and advised public fitness measures such as social remoteness, hand washing and masking, as well as the cautious reopening of schools with strong testing and follow-up capabilities to involve epidemics.
“It’s often not a brilliant science, it’s not a quick fix, but low-level daily behaviors that will make a big difference,” he said.