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Applause and chants echoed from the headquarters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on the evening of June 4, 2024, as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won a historic third term. Several world leaders conveyed their congratulations and most productive wishes to Modi on his mandate. in appointments to positions, adding Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Taiwanese President William Lai and Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.
Congratulations @narendramodi on the NDA’s historic victory for the third consecutive term. We look forward to working with you to deepen the Singapore-India partnership and celebrate the 60th anniversary of diplomacy next year.
— Lawrence Wong (@LawrenceWongST) June 5, 2024
No majority
But despite the festivities, there is an undercurrent of disbelief and disbelief.
Modi’s BJP failed to win a parliamentary majority on its own, for the first time since 2014.
Despite predictions of a landslide victory, the BJP would not be able to form the government on its own.
If Modi were to become prime minister, he would want the support of his coalition partners in the National Democratic Alliance.
So what happened?
“This time we exceeded 400”
The BJP presented its crusade for the 2024 general elections with great fanfare, with the slogan “Abki Baar 400 Paar” (this time, more than 400). The slogan refers to the ambition of the party and its coalition partner, the National Democratic Alliance. (NDA), to secure more than 400 of the 543 seats in the lower space of India’s parliament, known as the Lok Sabha.
A party or coalition will have to win at least 272 seats, a majority in the Lok Sabha, to form a government.
The goal arguably seems achievable given that the BJP won 303 seats in the 2019 EG.
That rose to 353 when seats won through its allies in the NDA were added to the figures.
The 2019 EG saw the crushing defeat of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), led by Rahul Gandhi, son of India’s sixth minister.
In 2019, the INC managed to win 52 seats in Parliament.
Fast forward to 2024, and several polls published by Indian media predicted that the BJP and its coalition would win between 350 and 380 seats in the Lok Sabha.
However, the BJP did not achieve the figures predicted in the polls.
As of June 5, the Election Commission of India reports that the BJP has won 240 seats in parliament.
Meanwhile, the opposition INC and its coalition alliance like INDIA won 235 seats, a better-than-expected result.
The BJP failed to win a majority of 272 seats
This is the first time that the BJP, under Modi’s leadership, has failed to secure a majority of 272 seats on its own.
Although the NDA, led by the BJP, won 293 seats, more than the 272 seats needed to form a government, that means Modi would have to rely on regional parties whose political loyalties may simply be fickle.
Modi would likely have to make some concessions to his allies to win their support.
Or, as Indian Express puts it: “India NDA, a third term, a message for Modi. “
Why is Modi’s job declining?
Unemployment and inflation
The BBC attributed Modi’s declining popularity to unemployment, rising prices, emerging inequality, a questionable reform of the military draft and a divisive campaign, among other things.
Under Modi’s government, India has the world’s fastest-growing primary economy, with an expansion outlook of 7. 6% for fiscal 2023-24.
However, discontent has spread on the ground, amid emerging unemployment, stagnant incomes and rising food prices.
Modi came into force in 2014 with a promise to create millions of jobs a year, but he has not achieved that goal, despite developing his economy.
Reuters has described India’s economic expansion as an expansion in which wealth is directed to the richest percentage of India’s population.
India’s unemployment rate rose to 8. 1 in April 2024, up from about 6 before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Religion-tinged campaign
Modi’s agenda, described by some as pro-Hindu, also put him in a difficult position in GE’s election campaign.
In January this year, Modi inaugurated a Hindu temple in the city of Ayodhya, which attracted his nationalist supporters, although he also perceived it as “controversial”.
The temple was built on land that had been disputed for many years between the Hindu and Muslim communities.
The site was once home to a mosque dating back to 1528, but is also considered by many Hindus to be the birthplace of the Hindu god Ram, Reuters reported.
The BJP began a nationwide crusade in 1990 to build the temple at the site, raising its national profile.
The mosque was razed in 1992 by radical Hindu groups, creating a rift between the communities, according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, in April, Modi was accused of making Islamophobic comments at an election rally, angering the Muslim network and opposition members, CNN reported.
Among other things, Modi has described the Muslim network as “infiltrators” with whom it will have to compete for resources.
“A historic feat in India”
Commentators noted that the electoral effects would mean that Modi would have to rely more on his allies and urgently address the upheavals of unemployment, inflation, and emerging inequality.
At least outwardly, Modi is calm.
In a June 5 Facebook post, Modi called the NDA’s victory historic.
“People have taken it for granted that it is true in the NDA, for the third time in a row!This is a historic achievement in the history of India,” Modi wrote.
“We will continue with the smart paintings made over the last decade to continue to meet people’s aspirations. “Main symbol Narendra Modi/Facebook