In early March, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that the Russian army’s losses exceeded 150,000 people. At the same time, several reports imply that the losses of the Ukrainian army exceed 100,000 people. However, the actual number of Russian soldiers and combat casualties in Ukraine are most likely significantly lower. In fact, estimates of casualties in peak wars are inflated due to disorders in media coverage, the “fog of war,” and government propaganda. While it is difficult to calculate the exact number of casualties suffered by both sides as a result of those challenges, data collected in Oryxspioenkop. com can still provide open-source approximations of those losses.
Unlike past wars, the ubiquity of social media has created a transparent battlefield. In fact, civilians on the battlefield, as well as some fighters, are posting photographs of destroyed military aircraft on social media. Oryxspioenkop. com is an online page that tracks and analyzes those images, which compile the losses of the Russian and Ukrainian apparatus. As noted in a previous article, there is some uncertainty about the accuracy of those values as they are based on open-source reports. Anyway, this online page has become a reference online page for those who stick to war.
The extensive use of artillery is one of the main points contributing to the accumulation of manpower in the Russia-Ukraine war. The doctrines of both armies revolve around artillery and prefer to interact with their enemies at distances of several kilometers. These commitments are vague and it is difficult for a unit to assess whether it has achieved a goal. It is imperative to note that artillery regularly targets enemy artillery and armored vehicles.
Given the nature of the conflict, most of the casualties come from groups of destroyed vehicles and aircraft. Therefore, an estimate of combat losses can be calculated from aircraft losses collected in Oryxspioenkop. com. For example, a Russian tank has a team consisting of a commander, a gunner, and a driver; Therefore, the 1,782 Russian tanks destroyed until the end of March 2023 equate to 5,346 losses. By compiling the teams of all vehicle losses recorded in Oryx, an estimate can be generated to identify the total number of casualties on both sides.
The graph below shows the cumulative number of casualties through February, similar to the number of vehicles destroyed. The Ukrainians lost about 13,440 infantrymen, while the Russians lost 45,170 infantrymen. Please note that these figures do not take into account casualties from landed operations. Although both countries were basically using mechanized maneuvers at the start of the war, there were reports of increased foot operations, especially through the Russians around Bakhmut, where attacks in human waves reportedly caused a giant number of casualties. However, this figure is unlikely to be as high as the 150,000 Russian casualties claimed through the Ukrainians or the projected 100,000 casualties for Ukrainians. It should be noted that the number of Ukrainian casualties matches estimates provided through Ukrainian officials in December, which put the number of Ukrainian casualties at around 13,000.
Much of the accusations that Russian casualties are running at 150,000 are due to Russian mobilization sending in undertrained soldiers. The 45,170 casualties resulting from this investigation would imply that Russian forces are deploying much more than just replacements. Instead, they are looking to increase the total number of troops. Initially, the Russian army believed that their impressive generation and education would allow them to defeat the Ukrainians without having a numerical advantage. This turned out to be false. For now, the Ukrainian counteroffensive appears to be a slow war of attrition, with both sides having a similar generation. In such a battle, the stronger side usually wins.
This assessment of casualties also shows several attractive trends of the war. The chart below shows the losses of Russia and Ukraine throughout the week. Note that the weeks shown in the chart are determined by the dates when the online page accumulated the images, which may present some degree of error.
The estimated weekly casualties from the Russia-Ukraine war were based on curtain damage removed by fromArray. [ ] https://www. Oryxspioenkop. com/
The other stages of the war are clear from this plot. In the first invasion, Russian forces suffered heavy casualties while Ukrainian forces suffered less. This is in line with the army’s doctrine, according to which armies in defensive position suffer about one-third of losses. casualties of those who were in the attack. Around April, Russian casualties decreased and stabilized (with the exception of week 12), corresponding to the end of the initial Russian attack and its concentration in the Donbas region. Around week 25, both aspects began to see an accumulation of casualties, as the Ukrainians introduced their counteroffensive. As a component of the counteroffensive, neither side is expected to have a definite tactical advantage, which would result in similar losses for both sides. However, the Russians suffered more casualties, most likely due to the deployment of poorly trained soldiers. In any case, Russian and Ukrainian losses are much more comparable than at the beginning of the war.
The trends also obviously show the injection of new technologies into the battlefield. For example, the peak of Russian losses in week 26 corresponds to the use by the Ukrainians of HIMARS systems during the reconquest of the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. The Ukrainian casualties around week 30 are related to Russia’s use of Iranian drones over Ukraine. In both cases, the effect was short-lived, with each army adapting its tactics to reflect the injection of new generation into the battlefield.
In other wars, casualty reports were monitored through either army and modified for strategic messaging purposes. However, this war can take advantage of the wide availability of open-source knowledge to gain a clearer view of the war. It’s worth noting that even though the numbers uncovered in this research are lower than those claimed in other reports, they are still high. Both armies suffered heavy casualties and the war was not over. With a Russian offensive and a reinforced Ukrainian counteroffensive looming, casualties will most likely rise. keep climbing.
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