Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on goods from Mexico even though the Mexican government has already helped reduce illegal entry into the United States. Economists warn imposing a 25% tariff on goods imported into America from Canada and Mexico would harm the three economies and raise prices for U.S. consumers. In part due to Mexico’s cooperation, illegal entry is lower today than when Donald Trump was president. Analysts say his tariff threat and other actions could be counterproductive and upend current U.S.-Mexico cooperation on immigration.
Although Inauguration Day is still several weeks away, Donald Trump has strained relations with the United States’ neighbors. “In an article in Truth Social, Mr. Trump spoke of a caravan of immigrants heading to the United States from Mexico and said he would use an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, until drugs and immigrants. He stopped crossing the border,” the New York Times reported.
“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” wrote Trump. “Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem,” he said. “We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!” Trump also said he would impose a 10% tariff on goods from China. “Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through,” wrote Trump.
According to the American Action Forum, a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico would cost the average U.S. household approximately $1,700 a year. The dislocation and lost sales experienced by U.S. companies when Canada and Mexico likely retaliate against the tariffs represent additional economic costs.
Illegal entries are lower today than when Donald Trump left office. In October 2024, there were 56,530 encounters with the Border Patrol at the southwest border, far fewer than the 75,316 encounters in January 2021, when Trump was president. Since July 2024, meetings have remained below 60,000 each month. Encounters with the Border Patrol were greater in January 2021, even as the Covid-19 pandemic slowed the economy in Trump’s final month. (In general, the fewer encounters, the fewer illegal entries. )
Analysts credit the Biden administration’s use of legal pathways, a June 2024 executive order on asylum policy and greater cooperation with Mexico for the significant decline at the border. Given this cooperation, Trump’s threats likely surprised the Mexican government.
“You may not know that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to help migrants from other parts of the world who pass through our territory on their way to the southern border of the United States,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum wrote in a letter to Trump. “As a result, and according to the knowledge of your country’s Customs and Border Protection Office, meetings at the U. S. -Mexico border decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024. In addition, some of those who arrive do so therefore, a legally scheduled route appointment under the U. S. CBP One program. U. S.
A U. S. Customs and Border Protection officer searches for contraband in a car in line to enter the U. S. at the San Ysidro gateway on Oct. 2, 2019. When the Trump administration made the decision in March 2020 to shut down the United States. As access The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated drug traffickers’ shift to fentanyl. (Photo via SANDY HUFFAKER/AFP via Getty Images)
By blaming Mexico, Canada and China for fentanyl-related deaths in the United States, Trump appears to have ignored his administration’s policies and the role of American demand for the drug, to which the Mexican president has responded. allusion in his letter.
When the Trump administration made the decision in March 2020 to close US ports of access to non-essential traffic during the Covid-19 pandemic, it accelerated drug traffickers’ shift to fentanyl to get more bang for their buck. Because fentanyl is a more powerful drug. drug than heroin, this substitution has contributed to an increase in overdose deaths.
According to research by the National Foundation for American Policy, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows significant increases in the 12-month rolling average of drug overdose deaths due to artificial opioids in April, May , June, July and August 2020, which continued for the rest of the year. The CDC does not provide accurate month-to-month numbers on artificial opioid overdose deaths. Still, even 12-month moving averages, which can mask larger accumulations in individual months, show significant accumulation after the March 2020 closure of access ports between the United States and Mexico to non-essential traffic.
The Mexican government cooperated with the Biden administration, in part because U.S. government officials met them halfway. The Biden administration’s decision to establish humanitarian parole programs proved decisive in reducing illegal entry and gaining Mexico’s cooperation. By allowing 30,000 individuals from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti to enter monthly and obtain work authorization, the Biden administration created a legal pathway, and it encouraged the Mexican government to cooperate and accept a similar number of expelled persons from Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba and Haiti. Expelling people from these four nations to their home countries can be challenging or even impossible.
According to an NFAP analysis, Border Patrol encounters declined by 98% for Cubans, Haitians and Nicaraguans between December 2022 (the month before the parole programs started) and September 2024 while falling by 56% for individuals from non-parole countries.
The new Trump administration is pledging to end humanitarian parole systems and not allow immigrants to use the CBP One app to schedule appointments at the border. As a result, it will be up to Mexico whether it wants to continue cooperating with the U. S. government at the same level.
In her letter, President Sheinbaum wrote: “It is clear that we will have to work together to create a new style of mandatory labor mobility for your country, as well as to address the deep reasons that force families to leave. ” their homes out of necessity.
The Mexican government could condition its immigration cooperation on greater labor mobility, particularly for Mexican citizens desiring to work legally in the United States but frustrated by the limited options. A significant percentage of illegal entry into the United States continues to be Mexicans seeking work. Further streamlining the H-2A category for agricultural visas, expanding the H-2B visa category for seasonal nonagricultural jobs and creating a work visa for year-round jobs for Mexicans could be the price the Mexican government requests to act as America’s gatekeeper.
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