NEW YORK: With most Americans delaying or skipping new Covid-19 booster shots, analysts and investors now expect far fewer to be administered a year, bringing the number of shots well below annual flu shots.
Since fewer vaccines are needed, vaccine makers in addition to Pfizer Inc, partner BioNTech SE, rival Moderna Inc and Novavax Inc may want to raise costs up to 3 times existing grades if they hope to meet Wall Street’s vaccine earnings forecast for 2023 and beyond. , several analysts said.
Last year, many on Wall Street believed that the number of covid-19 vaccines would be in line with the annual flu vaccine, which is the vaccine market leader with more than 160 million vaccines per year in the United States and six hundred million vaccines. all over the world.
Now, the slowdown in the speed of early covid revaccination campaigns, especially in the key U. S. market. In the U. S. , this view is changing. A recent vote by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that two-thirds of American adults don’t plan to get vaccinated against covid anytime soon. Analysts expect the U. S. market to be able tobe as low as one-third of the duration of the flu.
“The fact that other people say the pandemic is over doesn’t motivate other people to get vaccinated,” said Dr. Bruce Farber, public epidemiology and fitness leader at New York Northwell Health Hospital System.
He added that cases of covid infections among other vaccinated people have left many other people wondering about the vaccine’s effectiveness.
Health care investor Bijan Salehizadeheh, with Navimed Capital, in the previous call for ideas would likely mirror that of the flu, but now believes it will be much smaller without significant evidence that current plans are better.
“The average user will jump in to get it” with no symptoms of improved efficiency, he said.
FALLING NUMBERS
In the first six weeks of implementation, around 14. 8 million more people gained the updated Covid-19 booster vaccines that target the original coronavirus strain and the Omicron strain. In the first six weeks of the 2021 vaccination campaign, more than 22 million people gained their third shot, only the elderly and the immunocompromised were eligible at the time.
The adoption of boosters this year in the European Union has not been better as expected after the publication of new updated vaccines targeting Omicron, remaining in the range of 1 to 1. 4 million doses per week.
Wall Street analysts and investors agreed that vaccine sales could only if corporations provided evidence that the new stimulus protects others from mild illness; if they expand pan-coronavirus vaccines; or if the shots are combined in a single shot with the flu vaccine. A new wave of infections may also stimulate demand.
By 2023, analysts estimate on average that Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax can generate sales of $16. 3 billion, $7. 9 billion and $2. 8 billion from their Covid-19 vaccines, respectively, according to Refinitiv data.
Pfizer, BioNTech and Moderna declined to discuss their Covid-related sales prospects.
Novavax chief commercial officer John Trizzino said that while vaccine fatigue and confidence that the pandemic is over lately are holding back demand, the drugmaker expects the Covid-19 market in the end to be at least as big as the flu. He said emerging infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths will prompt other people to receive boosters.
“Unfortunately, the virus is running for us,” Trizino said.
Moderna has also reported that it believes the flu is a smart comparison in the U. S. And around the world.
Companies may only offset some of the weaker demands with price increases. Moderna said it will only aim to quote up to $100 based on dosage for injections that had an initial value of around $16. 50.
SVB Leerink analyst Daina Graybosch is skeptical about companies’ ability to raise costs to that level.
But Jefferies’ Michael Yee said it’s credible that personal fitness insurers and U. S. government fitness plans are in the U. S. government. U. S. spending up to 3 times more than the current value of around $30 on significant costs from hospitalizations or the long duration of Covid. That would mean $3 billion for $5 billion in long-term annual profits for a company like Moderna, he added.
Investors have already begun to outperform the promises of the covid vaccine market, adding Moderna, BioNTech and Novavax, 3 young corporations that rely on vaccines to generate almost all of their profits. The shares of the 3 corporations have fallen by at least two-thirds over the past year. Pfizer, one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical corporations, fell by about a third.