Los Angeles County appears to be on the rise of the coronavirus, with cases doubling since Thanksgiving.
The spike, which partially captures but likely doesn’t fully reflect exposures during the Thanksgiving holiday, triggers increasingly pressing calls for citizens to update on their vaccinations and take other preventative measures to thwart viral transmission and serious illness.
The number of coronavirus-positive patients receiving treatment in hospitals is also increasing, raising considerations about renewed strain on the region’s fitness formula and raising the specter of a public mandate to wear masks indoors if trends continue, perhaps some time after New Year’s Day.
The increase in viral transmission comes as many other people have stopped paying attention to COVID-19. But it’s not too late to intervene, officials say.
“We’re seeing an immediate acceleration again,” Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said in an interview Tuesday. “We want to encourage more people [and] everyone to come forward and put that mask on when they’re inside. “
More importantly, more doctors are prescribing antiviral drugs like Paxlovid, which can lessen the severity of the disease, Ferrer said.
While many officials expect a third winter pandemic wave to moderate through vaccines and increased drug treatments, it remains a difficult risk as the region also faces an early flood of influenza, RSV and other respiratory viruses.
“Taken separately, those infections are manageable. But when everyone comes together, the challenge to the formula is extreme and we’re seeing it now,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s secretary of health and human services.
L. A. County reported an average of 3,829 coronavirus cases consistent with the day of the seven consistent days ending Tuesday, up from 2,301 the previous week. The most recent case rate is triple the rate recorded in early November. Recent week-over-week increases in the case rate have reached 81%.
The constant capita rate (265 times per week of 100,000 more people) hasn’t been this high since early August, when the summer surge began to fade. A rate of 100 or more is best.
“If you have an alarming number of cases and many, many transmissions, you’re going to end up with more people in the hospital,” Ferrer said. “And tragically, our hospitals are also dealing with other respiratory viruses. . . and deal with the corresponding deficiencies that occur when you have many diseases. “
Among the state’s 25 most populous counties, Los Angeles has the case rate, followed by San Diego, Solano, Merced, San Bernardino, Fresno, Santa Clara and San Francisco, according to the Times’ coronavirus tracker.
Most likely, the official number of instances will be artificially low due to the widespread use of at-home testing, the effects of which are not shared with public fitness services.
For the week ending Sunday, Los Angeles County recorded 1459 new hospital admissions of coronavirus-positive patients. That’s 14. 5 new admissions consistent with 100,000 people, up 34 from last week, according to data from the U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. U. S.
An admission fee of 10 or higher is one of two criteria county officials have established to institute a new public order for indoor masks. The timing is the percentage of hospital beds cared for by coronavirus-positive patients.
On Sunday, 6. 6% of hospital beds in L. A. Countywere used by these patients, up from 2% in early November. If that percentage were successful at 10%, it would trigger a countdown (a few weeks) to a new order of masks. , which would be the first for Los Angeles County since early March.
If existing trends persist, Ferrer believes we can succeed in the moment because a few days before Christmas, which could put the county on track to implement a new mask mandate in early January. However, that schedule may be shortened or extended depending on how things are going this month.
Los Angeles County came close to issuing new regulations on wearing masks during the Omicron surge in the summer, but has narrowly refrained from doing so when cases and hospitalizations dropped just before the new order took effect.
While not lately contemplating a court order throughout California, state officials continue to provide masking as an effective way to thwart viral transmission.
“Given the trajectory and trends we’re seeing lately, we hope to be able to wear masks in addition to other equipment to keep the numbers manageable enough, even as fitness systems have struggled,” Ghaly said Tuesday.
Southern California is lately bearing the brunt of the greatest spread of coronavirus, with a 35% higher case rate than the state’s second-hardest-hit region, the San Francisco Bay Area.
But as has been the case throughout the pandemic, Southern California does not exist in a vacuum. The most recent model from the California Department of Public Health estimates that the spread of COVID-19 is likely expanding in the San Francisco Bay Area and San Joaquin Valley.
Authorities in Santa Clara County, Northern California’s most populous county, said they detected a sharp rise in coronavirus levels over the past month.
“The existing backlog of COVID-19 in the county serves as a stark reminder to everyone eligible to get Omicron’s bivalent retirement as soon as possible, especially before the holidays,” said Dr. Anna Stuart. Sara Cody, the county’s director of public fitness, said in a statement.
COVID-19 deaths have also begun to rise. L. A. The county recorded 77 COVID-19 deaths during the week ending Tuesday, up from 55 reported the previous week. Death rates are among those who have not been vaccinated or are not up to date with their booster, according to officials.
An uptick in coronavirus activity after Thanksgiving is a repeat of the trend seen during the past two declines. Exactly one year ago, on December 6, 2021, Los Angeles County saw a 94% weekly increase in coronavirus cases, a prelude to the first outbreak of Omicron, which is one of the deadliest of the pandemic.
But he remains convinced that a surge this fall and winter may not be as bad as last year, given the plethora of tools: immediate testing, an updated booster shot that matches circulating coronavirus strains, and the realization that masking is still helpful. Tool to restrict transmission.
Still, officials remain deeply concerned about the disappointing adoption of the updated reminder, which became available in early September. other people ages 50 to 64, according to state data.
Coronavirus-positive hospitalization levels are higher, especially for teams of all ages in California. On Friday, the coronavirus-positive hospitalization rate for others over 70 surpassed that of Omicron’s summer increase, the only age organization to do so.
While a certain percentage of other people hospitalized with coronavirus infection are not being specifically treated for COVID-19, this percentage could be replaced depending on whether it is an increase in strength or not.
For example, at the Omicron peak last winter, 60% of patients in Los Angeles County hospitalized for coronavirus infection were being treated for COVID-19, meaning the remaining 40% accidentally tested positive after being treated for some other reason.
Since February, between 37% and 45% of positive coronavirus hospitalizations have been due to COVID-19 disease in Los Angeles County, Ferrer said. For the week ending Nov. 7, the figure was 43%.
“Lately we’re approaching the upper end of that range, and we know that this ratio usually increases during force peaks,” he said. “It’s imaginable that with the accumulation of COVID cases this winter, we’re seeing an expanding proportion of COVID hospitalizations that are due to COVID-associated illnesses. “
As of Monday, 4208 coronavirus-positive patients were hospitalized statewide. The census has increased 62 percent in the past two weeks, reaching a point seen since early August.
However, it remains well below the peaks seen in the winter surges of 2020-21 or 2021-22, when hospitals infrequently treated more than 21,000 and 15,000 coronavirus-positive patients, respectively.
But COVID-19 is the only game in town this year. Hospitals are already busy dealing with an influx of patients with influenza and RSV, or breathing the syncytial virus. The confluence of this viral trio, the so-called “tripdemic,” can particularly stress fitness systems, even if the overall COVID-19 numbers aren’t what the past two winters were.
“People who in the last two years, although it has been very difficult, we have gotten rid of multiple threats at the same time,” Ghaly said.
He estimated Tuesday that, combined, about 6,100 more people are hospitalized with COVID-19 and the flu in California. That number could reach about 10,000 by late December or early January, he said.
“When we look at Omicron or last year’s outbreak, we see pretty low flu numbers, pretty low RSV numbers, other viruses circulating pretty low. . . And things could have been much more complicated if we had noticed the flow of those other viruses,” he said.
The complicated start to flu season, combined with the spread of COVID-19 and RSV, is “the best typhoon for a terrible holiday season,” according to Dr. Brown. Sandra Fryhofer, chair of the board of directors of the American Medical Association. .
That’s why it’s so vital to get vaccinated not only against COVID-19 but also against the flu, he told reporters Monday.
“I know everyone is tired of being shot. We all have extra fatigue. But understand, it’s possible that Array will have health issues this year and ruin your holidays if you don’t get vaccinated,” Fryhofer said.
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Luke Money is a Metro reporter covering the latest news in the Los Angeles Times. He was a former reporter and local deputy editor for the Daily Pilot, a Times Community News publication in Orange County, and before that, he wrote for the Santa Clarita Valley Signal. He earned his bachelor’s degree in journalism from the University of Arizona.
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Rong-Gong Lin II is a San Francisco-based Metro reporter who specializes in covering protection issues against statewide earthquakes and the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bay Area location graduated from UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times in 2004.
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