As in many other countries, things are not going well in Italy. Over the summer, when the emergence of new Covid cases dropped to a few hundred per day, a widespread sense emerged that the pandemic had spread; while the strong vaccination crusade covering 85% of the target population has succeeded in reinforcing herd immunity; and that life can return to normal.
But from mid-Oct, cases starting rising once again. From a trough of 1,500 new cases a day in mid-Oct, there has been an ever accelerating increase of cases. Just before Christmas, on Dec 23, new cases totaled nearly 45,000. This was the highest number ever! At this stage most cases were still the Delta variant. But the Omicron was rapidly taking over. From a few isolated cases a few months ago, Omicron accounted for 30-40% of new cases, many of them among younger people.
The government has been issuing new restrictions on wearing of masks, access to bars and restaurants, use of public transport, and workers in public services and private enterprises. The pre-Christmas acceleration led to other restrictions such as compulsory face mask in shopping areas in big cities, and cancellation of public celebrations on New Year such as firework displays and concerts. There were also strong suggestions to do a Covid test before participating in family events.
Still, 2022 got off to a bad start. On Jan. 1, new cases stood at 141,000, with one in eight people testing positive, triple the number of cases in just over a week.
But despite these alarming numbers, there is feeling among the public that things are not so bad. The numbers of infected people with serious symptoms remain low and deaths are 100-200 per day — well below the peak of 700-900 during the different waves in 2020 and 2021. Moreover, the bulk of serious cases were among those not vaccinated. There was also a consensus among mainstream scientists that although the level of immunity provided by vaccines went down after some months, a booster jab would ensure immunity against both Delta and Omicron.
So, can we look forward to a better 2022? On the positive side, Italians are getting more and more reminders; Tighter restrictions for the unvaccinated are gradually emerging among vaccine skeptics; And so far fitness seems to be working well. There is also a basic political and social consensus around key government actions. The “state of emergency” was again extended until March 2022; the new budget law has been approved by Parliament; and a comprehensive package of reforms agreed as a component of the EU-funded recovery plan is slowly being legislated and implemented.
But uncertainty lurks on many fronts. From a medical point of view, there is uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic. The big questions are: when and to what extent will the rate of new infections be reduced (on January 2, more than 20% of people tested positive)?How will Covid infections interact with the flu virus, which will begin to affect in the coming months as winter arrives?And will other Covid variants emerge, which is highly likely given the low vaccination rate in many countries?Economically, uncertainties range from global trends such as energy costs and resource bottlenecks, to local problems such as those imaginable affecting the growing number of people in poor health in essential public facilities, such as those related to education. , health, public order and public transport. Array as well as the source of hard work for public and personal enterprises.
And then there are the political uncertainties. The current Prime Minister is a “technician”, a former central banker, who does not belong to any political party. He enjoys a wide audience and a high level of credibility abroad, and is tolerated by parliament and political parties despite his authoritarian style. Unfortunately, it turns out that he also aspires to become president, a role that is necessarily ceremonial but has grown in importance in recent years. This is a seven-year term and therefore exciting for the current Prime Minister to keep him active, engaged and in the spotlight. However, if he is elected president, political parties may not be able to agree on his replacement, which may also plunge the country into an era of uncertainty and turmoil.
Hopefully the Italians with their peculiar genius for creativity and compromise will navigate the turbulent time ahead.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 6th, 2022.
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