The most recent militia saber blows on the border may suit Iran, but an escalation would be disastrous for Lebanon.
The most recent militia saber blows on the border may suit Iran, but an escalation would be disastrous for Lebanon.
Like I don’t have enough problems!
Like I don’t have enough problems!
The last thing Israel and Lebanon want is a conflict: the two countries are plagued by political conflicts and a resurgence of coronavirus outbreaks; Lebanese are also facing the worst economic crisis in their history. But the swords strike the border that separates them, thanks to Hezbollah and his boss, Iran.
On Monday, Israel said it had foiled an attempt through Hezbollah fighters to inadditles in the Shebaa Farms area. The Iran-backed defense force claimed it had done nothing like this and accused an “anxious and tense” of making up a story. But some elements of Hezbollah gave the game celebrating and showing off the action.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that any attack by Hezbollah “will get a reaction with a wonderful force.” His Lebanese counterpart, Hassan Diab, said he feared that “things would get worse in a context of maximum tension at the border.”
The escalation is part of a prolonged, low-intensity exchange of provocations between Iran and its proxy militias on the one hand, and the United States and Israel on the other. It also highlights Hezbollah’s growing prestige as a regional force as a mere Lebanese-Shia militia.
Last week, a Hezbollah fighter was killed in Syria in one of the now common Israeli airstrikes opposed to pro-Iranian forces. The attempted infiltration was probably conceived in retaliation. Hezbollah insists that “a blunt retaliation is definitely coming. Iran reiterated its “permanent and constant support” to Hezbollah and warned Israel that it opposes the “madness” of additional attacks on its assets, particularly in Lebanon.
The grey zone crash began just over a year ago, in May 2019, when Iran rejected the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” sanctions with what it called “maximum resistance.”
This has resulted in a series of attacks against U.S.-linked targets, most of them in Iraq. The most damaging moment came in early January 3, when an attack with US drones in Baghdad killed Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, head of Tehran’s largest Iraqi paramilitary force. After a pause, attacks on U.S. positions resumed, U.S. forces withdrew from several bases.
In Syria, where Hezbollah is a major presence in Iran’s call and the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad, Israel has introduced a crusade of bombings to prevent arms transfers and army entrenchment. The fighter killed last week is not Hezbollah’s first victim on the crusade, however, defense forces are killing him more than those that preceded him.
This greater urgency is related to the fate of Iran and its agents elsewhere. Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has to rule the pro-Iranian militias, which are accused of rocket attacks on US targets and the assassination of Husham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi expert in those groups. Perhaps even more troubling from Tehran’s point of view has been a series of highly suspicious explosions and fires in key army and commercial facilities in Iran, adding the Natanz nuclear site, which are widely attributed to Israel and the United States. For Iran and its regional actors, the desire to retaliate and repair some deterrence has rarely been more pressing.
Lebanese are accustomed to the spasmodic exchange of chimneys between Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces along the border, there was one last fall, but this comes at a particularly problematic time. Diab’s government is obviously depressed amid a growing economic crisis, and the border confrontation came the same day Moody’s Investor Service reduced Lebanon’s credit rating to the same point as Venezuela. Negotiations for the International Monetary Fund’s bailout are not going well: Economy Minister Raoul Nehme says Lebanon would possibly have to settle for part of the $10 billion it wants. Other border clashes can also scare a lender of last resort.
Politically, Lebanese sectarian factions are more divided than ever. And an increase in coronavirus cases has raised new alarms about the pandemic.
Israel is also suffering from a resurgence of a pandemic, and Netanyahu is also facing giant street protests opposing his government. The war with Hezbollah, which is armed with tens of thousands of hardened missiles and fighters on the Syrian battlefields, would be long, painful and costly for Israel.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah would also prefer a primary war for now. An economic fall in Lebanon would be negative for Hezbollah, which is strongly connected to the country’s economy. And he has many other battles to fight. As a component of Iran’s “maximum resistance” campaign, Hezbollah trains or fights alongside other militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
What for Nasrallah now is to what extent it can serve Iran’s interests without permanently harming Lebanon, and its own.
This column necessarily reflects the perspectives of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
To play this story: Hussein Ibish in [email protected]
To play the editor of this story: Bobby Ghosh in [email protected]