By Ollie Cooper, Live Reporter
We can’t give you live updates on the war in Ukraine right now (events in Washington DC dominate our workload), but here’s what you want to know this week.
Before we begin, here is a map that appears on the battlefield:
Here’s what you need to know this week…
Trump may simply replace the face of war
As you probably know, Donald Trump was sworn in as President of the United States, which may be a turning point in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Trump had already promised to “end the war within 24 hours” when he returned to the White House, but experts feared that this could simply mean a bad deal for Ukraine.
But in the weeks and months since his victory, his rhetoric has calmed, with advisers close to the president-elect saying last week that a realistic timeline was “months. ”
Trump has talked about his smart dates with Vladimir Putin and, during his election campaign, pledged to put America first and avoid wasting taxpayer money on foreign conflicts.
Retired Gen. Keith Kellogg is his new special envoy to Ukraine and has vowed to have a plan in place within a hundred days.
As part of its stated strategy, the White House would tell Kiev that it would only get more U. S. weapons if it engages in peace talks.
At the same time, Washington would warn Moscow that any refusal to negotiate would lead to greater American aid for Ukraine.
However, many key players in Trump’s Republican Party have indicated that they will strongly oppose any further foreign aid to Ukraine.
The president does nothing – for now
The president signed a flurry of orders hours into his presidency, but none of them talked about Ukraine.
Those signed on foreign affairs were basically similar to those on the Middle East, Cuba, and the assistance programs.
Their position will become clear in the days and weeks that follow.
He did, however receive congratulations from Vladimir Putin…
Return of Russian-occupied regions ‘not even up for discussion’
Russia’s inevitable hardline stance complicates any deal.
For example, the option of returning Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine to kyiv as a component of a conceivable peace deal “is not even up for discussion,” a senior Putin official said last week.
Nikolai Patrushev rejected the suggestion that Russia could be persuaded to cede any parts of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts it currently holds.
In an interview published in the Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda, he stated that the concept “is not even a topic of discussion. ”
He repeated long-standing Russian claims that sham elections in the regions in September 2022 made them effectively Russian territory.
He also appeared to suggest that the foreign popularity of the territories, as well as Crimea, like Russia, could be at the heart of any long-term peace deal.
Could British troops be sent to Ukraine to keep the peace?
Some have warned that a pause in fighting could come simply by deploying impartial or NATO troops to Ukraine to identify a demilitarized zone, although the main points on this remain unclear.
After a shock over Ukraine, British Prime Minister Sir Keir said he did not need to “take the initiative” yet and that the UK would play its “full role” in any peace talks, adding to the deployment of British peacekeepers. .
When asked if he would be willing to do so, the Prime Minister replied: “I indicated that we would play our role fully, because it is only about sovereignty in Ukraine.
“It’s about what the impact is back in the United Kingdom and our values, our freedom, our democracy. Because if Russia succeeds in this aggression, it will impact all of us for a very, very long time.”
He also signed a historic 100-year-old agreement that the Kremlin pledged to abide by “closely. ”
War Escalates in Anticipation of Trump’s Return
Ukraine and Russia appear to have escalated the scale and scope of their attacks as Trump’s return to the White House approaches.
Ukraine said it had introduced the biggest attack of the war on Russian military bases and gave the impression of having made extensive use of long-range missiles made in the United States and Britain last week.
Weeks after firing it’s new Oreshnik missile, Russia launched a massive wave of strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, forcing widespread power cuts.
There’s also been bitter fighting in the Kursk region – with Ukraine launching a fresh push in the region, while Russian and North Korean troops try to retake the territory that could prove so pivotal in future negotiations.
Russia “planned terrorist attacks around the world”
On stage, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk claimed that Russia had planned terrorist attacks against airlines around the world.
“The latest data may verify the validity of fears that Russia is planning terrorist acts in the air and not only against Poland,” he said without offering any main points or evidence.
It came after security officials claimed that parcels that exploded at logistics depots in Europe were part of a “test run” for a Russian plot to trigger detonations on cargo flights.
The explosions occurred in July last year at warehouses in Britain, Germany and Poland.
Russia has denied any involvement and Tusk has specifically discussed them.
We offer a rolling policy today, so here’s a quick update on what happened in the last 24 hours.
The most significant development off the battlefield came during Sir Keir Starmer’s surprise visit to Kyiv, where he signed a landmark 100-year partnership agreement to deepen security ties – as we reported in the post below.
During his visit, Starmer said his government would deliver a new mobile air defence system to Ukraine, which will be “developed to meet Ukraine’s needs”.
He added the UK will play its “full part” in helping to guarantee Ukraine’s security, with conversations to continue for months to come.
“We will work with you and all of our allies on steps that would be robust enough to guarantee Ukraine’s security,” Starmer said.
“We will play our part. “
Somewhere else:
Sir Keir Starmer has just arrived in kyiv for his first visit to Ukraine as Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister received at the Kiev station through the British ambassador to Ukraine, Martin Harris, and the Ukrainian envoy in London, Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
Sir Keir plans to sign a new long-term partnership agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later today.
Possibly today we would not write a blog about Ukraine; instead, you can stick to live politics from the Starmer scale in our Ideal Politics Center. . .
At the moment we are postponing our war policy in Ukraine, please.
Before we continue, a summary of today’s key events:
We can bring you some pictures of Ukrainian POWs returning home now, after an exchange with Russia we talked about earlier (see post 12:16).
“Today, another 25 people are returning to their homes in Ukraine. Those are our military and civilians,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said of the exchange.
“The boys have serious injuries and illnesses. Each of them will receive all medical attention,” he said.
He also thanked the United Arab Emirates for mediating the deal.
Joe Biden will mark the end of his term tonight when he broadcasts his final primary speech as president.
Biden has consistently called on the new Donald Trump to invest in Ukraine after the Democrat leaves office, but the Republican has indicated that his position is to seek peace as temporarily as possible.
Under his premiership, the US has committed nearly $200bn in weapons, aid, or ammunition for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022.
Analysts noted that the current Biden “has left it late” to approve a series of new spending and sanctions on the Russian regime.
A wave of sanctions hit Russian oil and manufacturers last week, and new sanctions were announced this afternoon (see previous article).
Donald Trump will be sworn in as president on Monday.
You can read more about what this may mean in our 9:57 a. m. article. m. , or ask one of our experts by clicking on the link in our 1:45 p. m. article. m. article.
The US has issued fresh Russia-related sanctions, according to the Treasury.
Multiple individuals, a China-based entity and a bank in Kyrgyzstan have all been named in the latest wave of sanctions – which come in the dying days of Joe Biden’s premiership.
Analysts have noted that the outgoing Biden has “left it late” to push through a series of new bills and sanctions on the Russian regime in anticipation of Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House.
A wave of sanctions hit Russian oil tankers and producers just last week.
“The new team is preparing for a negotiation, and in a negotiation you need influence, and some of that influence has to come from the type of economic tension that makes Putin perceive that he is going to continue paying a “significant” value. ” “security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday.
The return of Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine to Kyiv as part of a potential peace deal “is not even under discussion,” a senior Putin official said.
Nikolai Patrushev rejected the suggestion that Russia could be persuaded to cede all parts of the provinces of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson that it recently holds.
In an interview published in Russian media outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda, he said the concept was “not even up for discussion. ”
He reiterated long-standing Russian claims that mock elections in the regions in September 2022 made them Russian territory.
It also gave the impression of suggesting that the foreign popularity of the territories, as well as Crimea, such as Russia, could be at the heart of any long-term peace agreement.
In the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin chaired a video conference of the Pobeda organizing committee.
The Pobeda (meaning “victory”) is the Russian annual parade in which Soviet success again Nazi Germany in the Second World War is celebrated.
More in Poland, where Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Tusk organize a press conference.
The Ukrainian leader asked about reports that foreign troops could be sent to enforce a ceasefire line if a peace deal is reached.
Zelensky said the deployment of foreign troops to Ukraine could be only one component of security promises and would be enough on its own.
He also said that he would discuss the matter with Sir Keir Starmer.