Polish truckers blocked roads leading to three border crossings with Ukraine today to protest against what they see as a government following the loss of business to foreign competition since Russia’s war on Ukraine, officials said.
Ukrainian truckers have been exempt from applying for a permit to cross the Polish border since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Russian and Belarusian corporations have created Polish entities, Polish drivers say.
Their demands are accompanied by the reimposition of restrictions on the number of Ukrainian-registered trucks entering Poland and a ban on shipping companies whose capital comes from countries outside the European Union.
“We are protesting against the disruption of road transport to Polish hauliers. . . caused by the out-of-control entry of Belarusian, Russian and Ukrainian companies. . . those whose capital is from the East,” said Karol Rychlik, a shipping company. owner and manager of a truck driver,” the agreement said at a rally near the Dorohusk crossing.
This brings their scenario to that of Polish farmers, who won concessions from the government after complaining about a reasonable influx of Ukrainian grain imports.
A Polish government spokesperson may not be available for comment.
Ukraine expects a “positive” assessment from the European Union of its progress towards an imaginable EU club in a report to be presented this week, a senior government minister said.
Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna made the comments ahead of the release of the European Commission’s report on Wednesday.
Kyiv expects it to propose to EU leaders in December whether to open formal accession negotiations with Ukraine.
“I would say that the assessment would be positive because we have been in constant contact with the European Commission, discussing the measures and negotiating the measures that we have controlled to implement,” Stefanishyna said.
The Commission said in June that Ukraine had fulfilled two of the seven situations set by the EU to start accession negotiations.
“I think for the purposes of the evaluation, as far as the seven steps are concerned, everything agreed upon has been implemented and achieved,” Stefanishyna added.
Accession negotiations often take years because applicants must meet legal and economic criteria before joining, and the EU – which now has 27 member states – is also unwilling to take in a country at war.
As before, Russia sought to strike a diplomatic balance following the outbreak of hostilities involving Israel and the Palestinian territories.
Vladimir Putin’s regime has close relations with Israel – which presented itself as a mediating presence after the invasion of Ukraine – and Moscow also hosted a Hamas delegation.
Perhaps even more so, Russia has relied on Iran as one of its top allies since the war against Ukraine began, with Tehran being a key supplier of weapons and gadgets to Moscow in the face of Western sanctions against both countries.
And Kimberly Kagan, president of the think tank Institute for the Study of War, warned that Putin’s insistence on maintaining such strong ties with Israel and Iran is now doomed to fail.
“The Israeli government was hoping that Russia would exert some control over Iranian custom in Syria,” he told PBS.
“At ISW we felt that this had not been effective.
“In any case, Israel has tolerated Russia’s presence in Syria.
“I don’t think this myth is going to last long.
“I think Putin will soon have to choose between having relations with Iran or maintaining relations with Israel.
“Putin wants Iran to continue its war in Ukraine. Putin will face a difficult choice.
“I think he will try to hold on to that decision for as long as he can, but because his war in Ukraine is so vital to him and to the survival of his regime, he will have to optimize his alliance relations. to be able to continue this war.
“I think the Israelis will find that Putin is a useful or friendly actor. “
He concluded that the origin of Iranian weapons meant that “Putin would end up opting for Iran. “
Vladimir Putin is expected to pay an official to Kazakhstan this week, according to the country’s president’s office.
“On November 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin will make an official stopover in Astana, at the invitation of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev,” a statement said.
“The leaders of the two countries are expected to talk about pressing issues similar to the strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and Russia. “
The two presidents are also expected to participate via videoconference in the XIX Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum.
The last forum was held in Orenburg, Russia, in November 2022.
Moscow has not yet announced the date of the Russian president’s visit to Kazakhstan.
This is significant given the likely state of change in relations between the two countries.
A longtime best friend since the dissolution of the former Soviet Union of which they were both part, many experts recommend that Kazakhstan reduce Russia’s influence amid tensions over the war in Ukraine.
Earlier (see Article 8. 56), we reported statements by Ukrainian officials that Russian drone and missile strikes in Odessa injured eight more people and damaged an art museum that is part of the UNESCO World Heritage Site.
The National Museum of Art in Odesa said seven exhibits, most featuring works by new Ukrainian artists, were damaged by a blow that left a giant crater outside the monument celebrating its 124th anniversary.
The video showed damaged windows, doors and paintings lying on the ground among debris strewn across galleries.
One of the geopolitical consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the shift of some countries that in the past were impartial towards a clearer alliance with the West.
While Finland’s NATO candidacy was accepted earlier this year, Sweden’s candidacy has so far been stymied by Turkey.
However, U. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said today that he was confident of progress in the Scandinavian country’s bid to join, after talks with his Turkish counterpart in Ankara.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has submitted to parliament the bill ratifying Sweden’s accession to the NATO military alliance, after delaying this step for months.
The bill will need to be approved by the Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee before being voted on by the full General Assembly. Erdogan would then sign it into law.
“I’m confident we’ll see progress in this area,” Blinken told reporters at the airport before leaving Ankara, when asked if Turkey had given assurances that Sweden would be a member of NATO.
He said the United States is very encouraged by the fact that Erdogan has submitted the ratification protocol to parliament, adding that there is “a joint commitment” from Ankara and Washington to ensure Sweden joins the alliance.
“I would hope that came true,” he said.
A giant organization of former Russian mercenaries Wagner has started with special forces in the Chechnya region of southern Russia, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said.
Wagner played a prominent role in some of the fiercest fighting of Russia’s war in Ukraine, before its lengthy duration was called into question when leader Eugene Prigozhin died in a plane crash in August, two months after leading a brief mutiny opposed to Russia’s defense system.
Kadyrov said in a Telegram post that a giant organization of Wagner veterans was going through an extensive process with its own Akhmat special forces.
“I am pleased that the ranks of the outstanding unit (Akhmat) have been joined by fighters who possess adequate fighting experience and have proven themselves to be brave and effective warriors,” he said.
“I’m sure that in the upcoming battles they will completely live up to their reputation. “
He posted a video, accompanied by upbeat music, showing infantrymen in combat training, some wearing the Wagner insignia on their uniforms and masks on their faces.
Kadyrov said the exercises included firing, box medicine and snipers, gunners, sappers and gunners.
It is unclear exactly how many Wagner men took part or any of them will remain in the Chechen forces once the training ends.
The claims have been independently verified.
After Prigozhin’s death, the Kremlin denied that he had been killed on Vladimir Putin’s orders to punish him for the June mutiny. Russia has yet to make public the results of the investigation into the fatal plane crash.
Putin then placed Wagner fighters under state control, ordering them to take an oath of allegiance, and the Kremlin has continually said the organization does not exist as a legal entity.
As detailed here above (see article 10. 19), the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainian cruise missiles from the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch hit one of its ships.
Satellite images have been released showing damage to a Russian military corvette docked off the coast of Kerch, a city in the eastern Crimean peninsula under Moscow’s control.
Images captured Sunday via Planet Labs PBC show what appears to be a firefighting ship, as well as booms floating in the water to prevent oil leaks from the crippled ship.
What looked like burn marks can be seen on the boat, which is still afloat.
These markings were visible in other satellite photographs captured from the shipping port.
The ship’s measurements correspond to a Karakurt-class corvette.
In Russian, “karakurt”, “black widow spider”.
These ships are designed to carry Kalibr cruise missiles, the same type of missiles Moscow has used against Ukrainian targets since it launched the all-out war against Kyiv in February 2022.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said last Saturday that Ukrainian forces fired 15 cruise missiles at the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch, at least two of which hit a shipment and the shipyard.
Slovakia’s new Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has vowed to suspend the country’s military aid to neighboring Ukraine, said he has no plans to save its exports through self-defense companies.
NATO member Slovakia is home to brands of artillery ammunition as well as heavy military vehicles, such as howitzers, some of which have been sent to Ukraine.
Fico campaigned ahead of September’s election, which his party won, criticizing the West over Ukraine, sanctions against Russia and U. S. foreign policy.
He reiterated in his remarks today that the country would halt all shipments from army warehouses to Ukraine to combat Russian aggression, but made it clear that private companies would not be affected.
“Obviously we have done it and I need it: we are talking about weapons, ammunition from the Slovak army’s reserves, state equipment,” Fico said after an inaugural meeting with Defense Minister Robert Kalinak.
“When a company makes guns and ships them somewhere, no one will object. “
He added that the government will make an inventory of Slovakian inventories of aircraft and ammunition and give priority to their replenishment, strengthening the priority of the country’s air defense.
Professor Michael Clarke, a defence and security analyst, shared his thoughts on Ukraine’s customers on the most recent Sky News podcast.
He added that while there is no indication at the moment that Western aid to Ukraine will decrease, “next year could just be another challenge for them. “
He said Russia had carried out its own counteroffensive along the entire front line, which stretches for about 1,000 kilometers, with the loss of many troops and a “large amount” of equipment.
Professor Clarke said the Russians would surround Avdiivka.
Described as a “gateway” to Russian-occupied Donetsk (home to a coke plant, a chemical plant and a sand quarry), the city has been the scene of intense fighting lately.
“It’s not just about the place,” he said.
“The Russians are turning it into Bakhmut [a city that has been subjected to brutal and bloody fighting].
“But even though Bakhmut had no strategic value, it was symbolic. . . Avdiivka is valuable because it’s the gateway to Donetsk, it’s close to the airport – and if you look at the map, it’s also the gateway to the south, the Donbass.
“The Ukrainians have controlled Avdiivka since the beginning of the war and if they lose it now, they will be excluded from the south of Donbass.
“Everything they’ve accomplished farther north, all those spaces they fought hard for in the fall, they probably won’t count for much if they lose the gateway to the south. “
He said that now the two were engaged in a war of attrition.
“The attrition of war means fighting, in a tug-of-war for a long time, until one aspect collapses and things happen very quickly,” he said.
“In this specific war, the Russians are more likely to give in in the next 18 months than Ukraine, if Ukraine continues to receive support.
“But the other facet of attrition is that you win battles of attrition if you commercialize war. It is the reversal of the trade war in Europe.
“We never thought we’d see this after the end of World War II.
“But wars of attrition are won through the aspect that is most productive, able to prepare its industry and apply it to the front for a long period of time.
“It may take two, three, four years, or something like that.
“Although the Ukrainians are content with this, they are still transitioning to a genuine war economy, the Russians are transitioning to a genuine war economy, but they are not succeeding. “
Professor Clarke said the next 18 months would be war.
“I don’t think the Russians will be able to launch a successful offensive until the spring of 2025,” he said.
“Thus, over the next year, the Ukrainians will have the opportunity to make some fundamental progress, which could then lay the groundwork for favorable ceasefire negotiations.
“At the moment, there is no basis for favorable ceasefire negotiations, because the only thing the Russians are willing to settle for is for the Ukrainians to give in and settle for the fact that they have lost all the territory they have lost, that the Russians retain their rights to those 4 regions that they have annexed and will give nothing.
“The Ukrainians want to be in a better negotiating position than this. “
Listen to the full podcast below. . .