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Protests in favor of democracy mask a tribalist political struggle between the north and south of the country and the elites that constitute one of the parties to the dispute.
Political causes
“This is a confrontation between two factions: north and south. This is how the country’s elite has been [always] divided,” Russian political analyst Aleksander Knyazev told Russian news firm 360.
Knyazev went on to say that most of the parties that crossed the 7% threshold to join the Kyrgyz parliament were representatives of the south. The vast majority of protesters who took control of parliament buildings and security facilities to shape a coordinating council and loose president Almazbek Atambayev and his allies were northerners, Knyazev said.
It is imaginable that the self-defense teams that formed on 6 October and stormed an assembly of parliament, interrupting the election of a new prime minister, northern Sadyr Japarov, may have been made up simply of Southerners. protesters on the same day. However, it should be noted that the Coordination Council formed through the protesters rejected Japarov’s appointment to parliament.
Historically, even the 2005 and 2010 revolutions have strongly contained these tribal trends. For example, former Kyrgyz autocrat Askar Akayev, who was expelled from forces in 2005, has established his base in northern Kyrgyzstan. The force center moved south after Kurmanbek. Bakiev took control of the reins. Bakiev’s disappearance occurred five years from now, which led to the rise of Almazbek Atambayev. His promotion also led to the formation of a parliamentary republic and a six-year term without marrying for presidents.
The acquisition of votes amid the existing coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) is widely noted as the main explanation for why Jeenbekov’s allies ended up winning the majority of seats in parliament. Regardless of whether it was a fraud, the result was overwhelmingly favorable to the South and, as a result, broke the balance Atambayev once tried to achieve. But the political reasons that caused chaos would probably not be the only explanation for inciting thousands of others to meet and even go en masse to Kyrgyzstan’s capital. Bishkek from other regions for the explicit goal of protesting. The government’s mismanagement of the economic effects of the pandemic can also have a lot to do with the problem.
Economic causes
Kyrgyzstan’s GDP is expected to fall by 10% due to the pandemic, according to a report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the United Nations Development Programme and the government’s Economic Policy Research Institute. six months in 2020.
The same projections estimate that the unemployment rate of the former Soviet state would reach 13. 6% by 2020, assuming a prudent expansion of the source of work. 21% unemployment rate for people over the age of 18 to 65. These figures came amid closures in Kyrgyzstan and Russia, where thousands of Kyrgyz citizens are engeled in migrant work. Kyrgyzstan, one of the countries most dependent on remittances, relies heavily on the availability of paintings in Russia.
It will also be discussed that 27% (1. 6 million people) of the Kyrgyz population live below the poverty line, according to 2018 data, which likely aggravated COVID-19 blockades.
A wave of attacks on foreign-owned gold mines across the country amid political unrest underscores a nationalist trend, which can be counterproductive to the small country. Gold mining is the main source of foreign investment in the country.
Kyrgyzstan is home to Kumtor’s flagship gold mine, operated through Centerra Gold, which is the largest contributor to the Central Asian nation’s GDP with about one-tenth of it. Kumtor’s offices were reportedly raided through an organization of 20 to 30 men on October 7 Kumtor appears to be one of only gold mines that have not been disturbed by political violence. These attacks are related to long-standing anger among citizens of Kyrgyzstan, who understand that foreign entities benefit from Kyrgyzstan’s herbal resources at the expense of the population and the environment.
Kyrgyzstan has also developed the Jeruy project, which is expected to enter production this year with the aim of finally achieving 5. 5 tonnes of annual production. Jeruy’s gold reserves are estimated at 88 tonnes and mineral extraction had already begun in the deposit. , the operator of the Jeruy project, which is expected to be the country’s second largest gold producer, was forced to suspend the progression paints at the mine on October 6 after intruders destroyed and burned facilities on the site, the company said.
“Political turmoil is widening the point of uncertainty for mining investors in Kyrgyzstan. “Florence Cahill, senior analyst at the GPW consultancy, commented in an email sent to bne IntelliNews.
“While operations in Kumtor are far from the unrest in Bishkek and other cities, the possible dismissal of Jeenbekov or other senior government officials means that there is less clarity as to the long-term leaders’ view of foreign investment later, Cahill continued: “A resentment between segments of the local population was already developing towards foreign investors , especially Chinese companies, which fueled clashes between Chinese staff and citizens of Solton Sary’s gold deposit in 2019. A more nationalist government can simply search for its credentials among the local population through non-easy concessions from foreign mining companies, for example by expanding taxes or environmental fines, tactics used in the past to tighten Centerra Gold.
The threats to investment induced by nationalism may not look good for the Kyrgyz economy already weakened by coronaviruses.
Signs of destabilization
Kyrgyzstan’s long-term political term is also uncertain. Jeebekov disappeared from public view in the days of the riots, but reportedly spoke to some Kyrgyz lawmakers on 8 October and even discussed the choice of his own political trial amid disagreements between three main teams of protesters. Jeebekov said he would resign once again, on October 9, Jeenbekov declared a state of emergency reinforcing security until October 21; this can be perceived as a sign of a bet to retain power, but it is also imaginable that it is actually looking to stay in power. scenario while the transition procedure is still in full motion.
The ongoing political uprisings in Kyrgyzstan have already been thought of as symptoms of a “failed state. “The term is loaded with geopolitical implications, as it focuses on symptoms of instability. The legacy of the Soviet era has left Russia, the former colonial ruler of Kyrgyzstan, in order, at least as Kyrgyz rulers aligned themselves with the Kremlin.
All political factions in Kyrgyzstan have been unwavering with Russia, and the same applies to all sides of the existing political dispute.
“Any decisive political force today [in Kyrgyzstan] is unshakable for Russia. This is exclusively an internal process and will have no external significance,” Knyazev said.
“All parties in Kyrgyzstan are largely committed to strong ties to Russia,” Cahill said in email to bne IntelliNews. “The absence of a transparent geopolitical angle means that the Kremlin is unlikely to interfere publicly, just as Moscow has stayed away. “The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and mass protests in Belarus suggest that Russia is wary of defeating and alienating public opinion, as in Ukraine six years ago, so the Kremlin will be willing to allow national progress to take place as long as they do not. threaten Moscow’s geopolitical alliances. “
This did not prevent Moscow from pronouncing on 8 October that Kyrgyzstan had fallen into chaos and that Russia had obligations under an existing security treaty to prevent the scenario from collapsing completely. Russian interference would only make sense in the context of a nascent civil war between north and south.
A possible red flag is in the form of Melis Myrzakmatov, mayor moderator of the southern city of Osh. Myrzakmatov returned to the city, also known as the “capital of the south,” on October 7 from Turkey, and spoke to thousands of followers in the In his speech, he indicated that some teams of interest were going to sow confusion in the country and suggested to the crowd “resist forces interested in organizing a civil war and dividing the country,” RFE/RL reported.
De-stabilization or not, things look bleak for this so-called parliamentary representative democratic republic, which has become known as an “island of democracy” in the Central Asian sea of autocracies.
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