Kazakhstan’s ‘unique’ transition marks the first anniversary

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File photo. Nursultan Nazarbayev [L] and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the delegates of the Nur Otan party. [Astana Times]

On 12 June, Kazakhstan will mark the first anniversary of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s election as president. EURACTIV discusses the transition of singles between Nursultan Nazarbayev, which restored state status after the Soviet government, and Tokayev, who leads “controlled democratization. “

When Nazarbayev retired in March 2019, he announced that Tokayev, the President of the Senate, would assume the position of interim leader before the next presidential election, that Tokayev won convincingly, while Nazarbayev retained the position of President of the Security Council and the name “Leader of the Nation,” many wondered whether the transition was genuine.

Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, the key speaker and spotlight at the 12th edition of the Astana Economic Forum on Thursday (May 16). To a large foreign audience, it has provided explanations of its recent . . .

A year after Tokayev’s election, diplomats agree that the two leaders have succeeded in dividing their roles and that the new head of state embodies continuity in foreign policy and innovation in their country.

An EU diplomat said Kazakhstan’s delight in the leadership transition deserved to be studied through other post-Soviet countries, and through Russia itself.

Alberto Turkstra of the European Institute for Asian Studies called the Kazakh transition “unique” because the former state chief retained abundant strength and influence in the scenes, adding the approval of key ministers.

A radically new direction for the country is unlikely, even if the symptoms of replacement are obvious at the front of the house, he said.

According to Turkstra, at home, Tokayev has built carefully crafted rhetoric around the concepts of “trust” and “being listening to its citizens” to bridge the gap between ruling elites and society. A vital step, he said, the creation of the 44-member National Council of Public Confidence, which has held 3 meetings to date.

Tokayev has also introduced a new law on nonviolent meetings, following the path of the country’s “controlled democratization” with a more liberal law that analysts say is helping to expand a strong multiparty democracy.

Kazakhstan passed the new law on nonviolent meetings, following its path of “controlled democratization” with a more liberal law that analysts say is helping to expand a strong multiparty democracy.

“The Old Slogan” Economy first, politics after “is no longer valid,” Turkstra said, referring to the Nazarbayev period, when the vast majority of the population was heavily involved in seeing the popular life improve since the collapse of the USSR. .

“Over the next year, we noticed that young Kazakhs took to the streets to express their concerns, frustrations and aspirations. The transit of the Nazarbayev-Tokayev force led to a resurgence of the spirit of activism, especially among urban youth. In this context, other people no longer make judgments about the government only on the basis of the curtain benefits it provides to its citizens, but ask for more and more space to exercise their sociopolitical freedoms,” the analyst said.

Parliamentary elections in Kazakhstan are scheduled for 21 January 2021.

But the first year in force is not easy for Tokayev, for reasons beyond his will.

Like many other countries, Kazakhstan has suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. While there were few cases of coronavirus in the country, oil costs fell on the global market, which was bad news for an oil exporting country like Kazakhstan.

This led to a depreciation of the tenge, which is strongly related to the value of oil, and a substantially revised budget for 2020, which had been written under the assumption of $ 55 consistent with a barrel.

Then there was also a primary flood in May 2020 in Kazakhstan’s Turkestan region, where more than 31,000 people had to be evacuated. The scenario was temporarily controlled and provided to the local population.

Another bad episode was the June 2019 incident in the city of Aris, where old army depots exploded, also destroying urban infrastructure. Tokayev personally oversaw the structure of a new city and Arys rebuilt in just 3 months.

On the economic front, Tokayev has under pressure the need for economic diversification, as the COVID-19 pandemic once exposed some of the shortcomings of the Kazakh economic style and its over-reliance on the export of hydrocarbons, minerals and metals.

According to Turkstra, it is transparent that Tokayev’s presidency, the engines of expansion, will want to diversify if Kazakhstan wants to achieve its ambitious goals, such as fitting into one of the 30 most evolved countries until 2050.

As in recent years, Kazakhstan has loved its relationship with the EU in a delicate balance with other world powers.

According to Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, Director-General of the European Neighbourhood Council, EU-Kazakhstan dating has been institutionally strengthened with the Partnership and Economic Cooperation Agreement signed in 2015.

“However, in the current context of risky Chinese-American policy and progressive decentralization, the urgency of greater cooperation in new sectors beyond classical industry is very important,” said Doveri Vesterbye.

He said EU-Kazakhstan relations will focus in 2021 on “security, environment and contacts between people, youth training, gender support, debate with civil society and exchange of studies. “

Peter Stano, spokesman for EU Head of Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell, told EURACTIV that Kazakhstan had made “impressive progress in its modernization and reform efforts” and that the EU “is pleased to see continued progress under President Tokayev’s leadership, adding peace promotion. , security and sustainable progression to gain benefits from all. “

“This is a vital year for Kazakhstan as it prepares for parliamentary elections. As with any functioning democracy, it is vital that these elections respect Kazakhstan’s foreign commitments and standards,” Stano said, adding that Tokayev deserves to travel to Brussels. “when situations permit, to expand our relationships. “

[Edited via Zoran Radosavljevic]

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