THE CONVERSATION
This article was originally published on The Conversation, an independent, nonprofit source of news, analysis, and observation from education experts. Disclosure data is located on the source site.
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Authors: Gerson Scheidweiler, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Equity Studies, University of York, Canada and Tyler Valiquette, PhD Student, Human Geography, UCL
The days leading up to Brazil’s elections were tense, violent and desperate.
A few days before the circular at the time of the vote on October 30, 2022, Carla Zambelli, a deputy and outspoken supporter of Jair Bolsonaro, clashed in the streets of São Paulo with a black activist. He ended up with her pulling out a gun and chasing him through the streets.
On election day, there were reports of a crusade to suppress the pro-Bolsonaro electorate through the Federal Highway Police, leading to intentional traffic delays in the country’s northeast. Apparently, the country was more polarized than ever and the audience feared a Brazilian insurgency.
In the end, however, Brazil chose leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva from outgoing right-wing Brandon Bolsonaro by incredibly narrow margins, 50. 9% to 49. 1%.
Bolsonaro’s unexpected numbers
The electoral effects highlighted a strong nostalgia for the guy commonly known as Lula, who ruled an era of economic and social prosperity for Brazil. The northeastern region of the country, Brazil’s poorest, voted for Lula in overwhelming numbers.
However, Bolsonaro had significant numbers in almost every state. His good fortune has surprised many, given his terrible reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic, his catastrophic record in the Amazon, and a suffering economy.
Despite this, 49% of Brazilians voted for him, suggesting a broader conservatism that is emerging in Brazil.
Bolsonaro’s motion remains strong and will remain so for years to come. And Lula will most likely struggle to appeal to Brazil’s middle class as he tries to broaden his support.
Immediately after the results, world leaders were quick to congratulate Lula on his victory. President Joe Biden, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Canada’s Justin Trudeau posted tweets congratulating him.
Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal also confirmed the election results and diplomats encouraged world leaders to learn the results.
Millions of Brazilians also took to the streets to celebrate Lula’s victory and the hope he represented for the Amazon, LGBTQI others and indigenous people. Lula echoed this hope in his first speech as president.
These movements were coordinated to dissuade Bolsonaro and his supporters from attempting a violent insurrection.
No army intervention
However, after Lula’s speech, Bolsonaro remained silent. The Supreme Court and even Bolsonaro supporters began asking him to recognize the election results.
After two days, he nevertheless spoke. He did not officially budge, but said he will adhere to Brazil’s charter and the nonviolent transition of power.
Following that speech, Bolsonaro’s supporters coordinated many roadblocks across the country, hoping that army intervention would keep Bolsonaro in power. These ongoing protests are and constitute a mobilized conservative movement in the country that will be organized in opposition to Lula.
Brazil’s new president faces significant challenges. It will have to unite a country that is shaken politically, socially and economically. He will also have to work with a newly elected conservative congress that is more right-wing than the one he has under President Bolsonaro.
In Lula’s first hundred days, his goal is to make access to firearms more complicated and fight emerging degrees of deforestation. These promises will pit him against Bolsonaro’s electorate and existing policies.
Repairing Brazil’s image
In addition, Lula must approve a new budget that Bolsonaro has emptied of social benefits at a time of inflation and stagnation of the Brazilian economy.
It will also have to show globally that Brazil is a strong democracy with a colorful economy to fix its global symbol and attract foreign investment. In the end, he will have to do so under excessive control, given the corruption rates that oppose him. .
Bolsonaro and Brazil’s developing conservative movement will seek any and all opportunities to derail his presidency and question his ability to govern.
Polarization
While Brazil would likely have moved away from its own Jan. 6 uprising, the country is emerging from the vote more polarized than ever.
The election of a leftist leader in Brazil will undoubtedly boost similar parties and leaders throughout Latin America. But it is vital to note that, despite the good fortune of democracy in Brazil, developing forces opposing it are being mobilized across the Americas.
A transparent example is the polarized midterm elections in the United States that allowed some candidates who denied the effects of the 2020 presidential election to win high-profile races, as well as the so-called freedom convoy movement in Canada.
Democracy remains threatened by authoritarian figures such as Bolsonaro and Donald Trump, whose legacy lives on.
Polarization and the risk of authoritarianism will continue to plague Brazil and democracies around the world for years to come.
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The authors paint for, consult, own stock, or obtain investments from any corporation or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed any applicable affiliations beyond their educational designation.
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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Disclosure data is located on the source site. Read the original article: https://theconversation. com/jair-bolsonaro-lost-in-brazil-but-his -th https://theconversation. com/jair
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