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LOS ANGELES – Masks are needed to combat the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. But at this point, they might no longer be enough.
Models that have emerged in countries that are doing much better than the U.S. recommend that we put the virus on our feet before starting to block hot spots as well.
On Wednesday, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, tweeted, “I who, adding #Millenials and #GenZ, will wear a tissue mask for the next four to 6 weeks, we can control the COVID-19 Epidemic.”
Redfield’s comments went viral. See? signal amplifiers to say. If the rest of you were just behaving, this could end before Labor Day.
In response, Carl Bergstrom, a professor of biology at the University of Washington who has become one of the most sensitive coronavirus experts in the country, tweeted in return: “I aliens have flown many kind years across the galaxy to talk to us flattening cultures into circular patterns.”
Bergstrom’s tweet was bragged, but his message was clear: while officials like Redfield surely deserve to continue “advocating disguised as a global pandemic,” as Bergstrom put it in a follow-up tweet, the concept that only the mask could, in the next 4 to six weeks, “control” a virus that is spreading lately at a rate of 65,000 new instances according to the day and killing about 1,000 Americans every 24 hours is as fanciful as M. Night Shyamalan’s Signs plot. “
Again, masks are crucial. Scientists say they deserve to be mandatory across the country. On Friday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, America’s leading infectious disease specialist, suggested that “local and other political leaders Array … are as full of life as you can imagine for their citizens to wear masks,” adding that “masks are really important, and we deserve to wear them, all of them.
However, as Bergstrom concluded, saying or even requiring others to wear a mask gives “only a partial solution” to the challenge being posed in the United States by COVID-19.
The query now is what the rest of this solution looks like. And the answer is that it probably looks more like Europe.
This now severe local crashes.
In early April, the curves of the new daily COVID-19 instances in France, Germany and the United Kingdom were very similar to those of the United States.” In Italy and Spain, the curves were even worse. Today, however, these countries have fewer than 15 instances consistent with millions of inhabitants each day. Italy accumulates 3 instances consistent with millions consistent with a day, while the United States adds 192. The European Union, with a population of 446 million, adds around 4,000 new instances per day. The United States, with a population of 328 million, adds up to 15 times that number.
So why has life become widespread again in Europe still in America?
It’s not about the mask. The British were generally reluctant to hide their stiff upper lips behind the mask; It was only on Tuesday that Prime Minister Boris Johnson, however, ended months of misunderstanding and demanded that others wear masks in department stores and supermarkets. In France, no mask will be required in enclosed spaces until 1 August. And although masking is now more prevalent in Spain and Italy than in the United States (84% of Spaniards and 83% of Italians say they cover their faces in public, compared to 59% of Americans), this was not the case in April. when the pandemic peaked there. Even now, fewer people say they still wear a mask in the UK (19%), France (53%), Sweden (2%), Denmark (2%) Norway (4%) than in the United States.
Germany and the United States are roughly tied about 60%.
On the contrary, the difference is that Europe’s spring closures have worked and the United States, in general, has not worked. That doesn’t mean America deserves to have it closed any longer. There is no closure model for singles, as evidenced by the other measures implemented in the EU. Finland, for example, has never been closed at all, and the government does not recommend, but does not prohibit, which is not essential while allowing department stores to remain open. However, residents of Spain and Italy were allowed to leave their homes for more than a month. The UK was blocked for 83 days.
However, there was a non-unusual denominator: ensuring that the virus had been suppressed at a low enough point that containment would theoretically be imaginable once operations resumed. It meant other things, let’s say, in Germany and Denmark, but the purpose was the same.
So how far is the virus transmitted? It turns out that when comparing reopening dates and positivity verification rates, an attractive trend arises. In Spain, the interior spaces largely reopened on 26 May; at this stage, 1.4% of COVID-19 controls were positive. In Italy, indoor spaces reopened more frequently on 18 May; at this stage, 1.5% of COVID-19 controls were positive. The same applies to positivity rates in Germany (1.4%), France (1.5%) and the UK (1%) when it reopens indoors.
The fact is not that 1.5% is an absolute guarantee of long-term success. Cases can rise again across Europe, especially as the weather returns and domestic activity increases this autumn. The way a country manages the virus after its reopening is also critical. In Israel, the positivity rate fell to 0.3% in May. But an immediate reopening accompanied by mass marriages and face-to-face schooling has produced another wonderful wave of infections.
Still, if you need to reopen your country, a positivity rate of 1.5% (or less) turns out to be a smart starting point, a point of reference to aspire to. Ukraine, for example, reopened its doors when its positivity rate by about 2 percent is higher. The boxes came up soon.
Unfortunately, the positivity rate in the United States has never been close to 1.5%. In fact, it has not fallen below 4.6% since the start of the pandemic. On May 15, the positivity of 4.2% in Florida, 6.5% in Texas and Arizona and 4.8% in California, 3 to 4 times the end point of Europe. Therefore, regardless of the duration of the house orders in the United States. They were lifted when there were still too many viruses circulating in the population to involve them.
All that happened afterwards. Today, the positivity rate in Florida is 19%; Texas, 16 percent; Arizona, 24 percent; California, 7%.
There is little evidence to recommend that the mask could turn the Florida epidemic into an epidemic in France. On the one hand, “everyone” unfortunately won’t use them, no matter what Redfield says. Remember, this is a country where the president refused to wear a mask in public until last weekend; where the White House just said it would not take into account a national protective order; where the Republican governor of Georgia suspended all court orders for local mask and sued the Democratic mayor of Atlanta for not rescinding his own; and where the School Board of Orange County, California, voted this week to send the youth to school without a mask to set the example of “courage.”
But even if American politics and psychology were repositioned overnight and Americans began to hide universally like, say, the Japanese, it probably wouldn’t be anything contrary to the trend. One study suggests that by May 22, mask guarantees in some U.S. states may have slowed coVID-19 daily expansion rates by up to 2%. However, over the next month, instances have a higher national average across more than 6% consistent with the day. In Florida, they rise by an average of 15% consistent with the day. In Los Angeles, daily instances have more than doubled in the last month. A universal mask guarantees your position all the time.
In the meantime, it is a myth that the explanation for why the virus is spreading is that a “maskless America drank the lives of its children,” as liberal columnist Paul Krugman told the New York Times on Tuesday. “The explanation for why we’re in this position is that the states, encouraged through the Trump administration, rushed to allow the primary parties and reopen the bars,” Krugman theorized.
That is partly true, of course; reopening was a hasty disaster. But a more complete explanation, which takes into account the fact that vulnerable and low-income Americans, especially Latinos, constitute a hugely disproportionate number of COVID-19 cases, is that frontline staff have been angry with the paintings before and after the lockdown. and then spread the disease to their families and communities. Last week, for example, a clothing factory in Los Angeles was ordered to close after public fitness researchers discovered that more than three hundred showed COVID-19 infections and 4 deaths among garment staff who had been reclassified as “essential” to producing masks. the pandemic. Unless personnel’s exposure to the virus is minimized, positivity rates can remain dangerously high.
The only way shown to decrease such exposure is to block, not nationally, but in places like Houston, where the positivity rate has recently reached 25%, and Miami, where it just passed 33%. In Italy, the positivity rate of 25% before the blockade; Spain, 28 consistent with one hundred; and in the UK, 32%. All fell below 1.5 in line with one percent. All remain below 1.5% today.
Closer to home, more than 50% of the tests in New York State came positive in early April. It followed America’s toughest blockade (and the top cautious reopening). On June 9, the state’s positivity rate fell below 1.5% for the first time. Today it stands at 1.14 consistent with the penny.
To achieve this kind of result, cities like Houston, Miami, Phoenix and Los Angeles will want to close better than in the spring. This can mean simply allowing fewer companies or more money to remain open to workers. This may mean stricter application at home. Ultimately, this will mean more tactile studies and tests and specific efforts to eliminate the inevitable outbreaks that will occur after the blockade ends.
But just “re-opening” by restricting indoor activities, such as going to videos and restaurants, probably won’t be enough. The disadvantage is that the locks must be as strict and as long as they are mandatory to achieve a local positivity rate of 1.5%. Anything below that can prolong the process.
The good news is that now that we know how vital the mask is, they can help restrict the amount of economic upheaval needed to achieve them. Earlier this year, two hairdressers in Springfield, Missouri, who tested positive for COVID-19, saw 139 customers undergo cuts, shaves and permanents indoors lasting 15 to 45 minutes while inflamed by the virus. None of those customers (of the 104 who agreed to be interviewed) have fallen ill, and of the 67 who consented to a swab test, they came back negative. The reason, according to a study released this week, is that the screen had a universal mask policy, and everyone, including stylists and 139 clients, followed it. This suggests that if the new locks are related to hidden arrest warrants, and citizens obey arrest warrants, some small businesses that may also have closed in April would possibly remain open.
At every level of this pandemic, American leaders are some steps from the pathogen. On Thursday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a proactive leader in one of America’s most proactive states, hinted that if his constituents simply grew and covered their faces, they could simply “crush that curve,” a curve that recently erased 10,000 new diaries. instances for the first time.
“Don’t be self-centered, wear a mask, ” tweeted Newsom. “We can weigh this curve, we have to do it ENSEMBLE.”
Newsom’s right. Americans have to do it together. Our duty as citizens is to wear a mask. But the government of states like California also has a duty, and that just tells us to cover our faces. Your duty is to block.
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