August 10, 2023: More than three years into the COVID-19 era, most Americans have resettled into their pre-pandemic lifestyles. But a dominant new variant and the accumulation of hospitalizations may give way to a summer surge.
Since April, a new variant of COVID has emerged. According to recent CDC data, EG. 5, from Omicron’s circle of relatives, now accounts for 17% of all cases in the United States, up from 7. 5% in the first week of July. .
A summary from the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy indicates that EG. 5, nicknamed “Eris” through fitness trackers, is poised from its original strain, XBB. 1. 9. 2, but has an additional maximum mutation. .
Along with news of the emerging prevalence of EG. 5, COVID-related hospitalization rates increased 12. 5% last week, the largest buildup since December. However, no link has been established between the new variant and the accumulation of hospital admissions. So far, experts have not discovered any difference in disease severity or symptoms between Eris and the strains that preceded it.
Restlessness?
The COVID virus has a wonderful tendency to mutate, says William Schaffner, MD, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University in Nashville.
“Fortunately, those are minor mutations. ” Still, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, remains highly contagious. “There’s no doubt it’s spreading, but it’s not more serious. “
So Schaffner doesn’t think it’s time to panic. He prefers to call it a “slight increase” in some cases than a “pop” because an increase “seems too large. “
While the numbers are still low compared to last year’s summer outbreak, experts still urge others to stay in the most sensible adjustments to the virus. “I don’t think it’s cause for alarm,” agreed Bernard Camins, MD, a specialist at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City.
So why the higher number of cases?” There has been a backlog of COVID cases this summer, most likely similar to travel, socializing, and declining mask wearing,” said Anne Liu, MD, an allergy, immunology and infectious disease specialist at Stanford. Even so, he said, “because of an existing immunity point that opposes vaccination and past infections, it has been limited and the severity of cases has been less than in previous outbreaks. “
What the numbers say
CDC no longer updates its weekly follow-up review of COVID data. They stopped in May 2023 when the federal public emergency ended.
But the firm continues to track COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, emergency room visits and deaths in other ways. This week’s key results are 9,056 new hospitalizations reported for the week ending July 29, 2023. That’s low compared to July 30, 2022. , when the weekly number of new hospitalizations exceeded 44,000.
“Last year we saw a summer wave that peaked in mid-July. In that sense, our summer wave comes a little later than last year,” said Pavitra Roychoudhury, PhD, assistant professor and researcher in the Division of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases. at the University of Washington School of Medicine.
“It’s not clear how high the peak of this existing wave will be. The degrees of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, as well as the number of hospitalizations, are currently lower than at the same time last year.
During the pandemic part, CDC people monitor COVID numbers in their own communities. But the agency’s local COVID rules are tied to hospital admission levels, which lately are low for more than 99% of the country, even as they rise.
So while it’s good news that the number of hospitalizations is lower, it means the agency’s ability to identify local outbreaks or hotspots of SARS-CoV-2 is now more limited.
It’s just an increase in hospitalizations across the country, as other indicators of COVID-19, adding emergency room visits, positive tests, and sewage levels, are expanding in the U. S. U. S.
Regarding the measures:
What about the new COVID vaccines?
As long as you continue to make informed decisions and get the new Omicron vaccine or booster once it’s available, experts expect hospitalization rates to decline this winter.
“Everyone gets Omicron withdrawal as soon as it’s available,” advised Dean Winslow, MD, a professor of medicine at Stanford University in California.
In the meantime, “it is vital to insist that COVID-19 will be with us for the foreseeable future,” he said. Since symptoms related to those new Omicron subvariants are sometimes milder than with previous variants, “if you have even mild symptoms of lack of blood, it’s a good idea to check yourself if you have COVID-19 and start treatment early if you’re an older person or if you have a higher threat of severe illness. “
Schaffner remains positive for now. ” We anticipate that the vaccines we have lately, and the vaccine being developed for this fall, will continue to prevent serious ailments related to this virus. “
While it’s hard to expect an accurate timeline, Schaffner said they may only be available until the end of September.
His predictions assume “that we don’t have any nasty new variants popping up somewhere in the world,” he said. “[If] things continue to evolve as they are, we anticipate that this vaccine . . . will be really effective and help us stay away from the hospital this winter as we expect a COVID backlog again.
When asked about his views on vaccine recommendations, Camins was less sure. “It’s too early to tell. ” Advice on COVID injections will be based on the effects of ongoing studies, he said. “However, it would be prudent for everyone to get a flu shot in September. “
Stay alert and realistic
Cautious optimism and a call to remain vigilant seem to be a consensus at this point. While the numbers remain low so far and the increase in new cases and hospitalizations is small compared to scenarios beyond, “it makes sense to develop our anti-Omicron antibody grades with vaccines before fall and winter,” Liu said.
“Everyone, especially those most at risk of hospitalization or death, is urged to be aware,” Camins said, “so they can make their own decisions to participate in activities that may put them at risk for COVID-19. “. . “
We want that, whether they’re opposed to the flu, COVID, or even RSV, those vaccines that oppose respiratory viruses are the most effective at keeping us out of the hospital. They are not as smart at preventing milder infections.
Schaffner said, “So if we don’t expect perfection, we probably wouldn’t be so disappointed. “
SOURCES:
CDC: “Anchor Link for Surveillance of Variant Proportions,” “Hospitalizations, Deaths, Emergency Department (ED) Visits in the U. S. “Testing for positivity across the geographic area. “
Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy: “WHO adds Omicron EG. 5 to variant surveillance as COVID markers decline further. “
William Schaffner, MD, Professor of Infectious Diseases, Vanderbilt University, Nashville.
Bernard Camins, MD, infection specialist, Mount Sinai Hospital, New York.
Anne Liu, MD, Clinical Associate Professor, Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA.
Pavitra Roychoudhury, PhD, Assistant Professor, Researcher, Division of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle.
Dean Winslow, MD, Professor of Medicine, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA.
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