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World leaders are scrambling to keep the conflict in the Middle East from spiraling out of control, a day after Iran carried out its first direct attack on Israel with drones and missiles. Nick Schifrin reports on the attack, and John Yang talks to Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about its ramifications.
Note: Transcripts are both machine-generated and human-generated and edited for accuracy. They would possibly involve mistakes.
Jean Yang:
A day after Iran used drones and missiles to carry out its first direct attack on Israel, international relations are now at a midpoint. Leaders in the White House and capitals around the world are fighting for this. Tonight, our politics begin with Nick Schifrin.
Nick Schifrin:
Over the holiest sites and one of the holiest cities in the world, rockets lit up the night sky and Israeli air defenses blocked an unprecedented Iranian attack on all of Israel. The Israel Defense Forces said they had foiled 99 percent of more than 300 drones. and missiles, most brought in from Iran, but some also come from Iranian proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
U. S. officials say the U. S. shot down at least 75 of them, almost all in Jordanian airspace. Israel said the missiles that entered Israeli airspace were ballistic, adding that one wounded a seven-year-old girl. Israel reported no casualties or casualties injured at an air base.
Iran said it responded to Israel’s assassination of high-ranking Iranian generals inside the Iranian consulate in Damascus and called the attack an “eye-for-tat” attack.
General Mohammad Bagheri, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Iran (through a translator): From our point of view, this operation is over and there is no objective to continue it. But if the Zionist regime takes action against the Islamic Republic, our next operation will be much bigger.
Nick Schifrin:
By dawn, Israelis are back to normal, but dominance remains the same and Israeli leaders say the incident is not over yet.
Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces:
We remain on high alert and assessing the situation. In the last few hours, we have approved offensive and defensive operational plans.
Nick Schifrin:
But the U. S. recommends restraint. President Biden and the leaders of the world’s seventh-largest industrialized countries warned that the Iranian attack could lead to uncontrollable escalation and vowed to de-escalate the situation. And then, in a phone call, Biden told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U. S. would not participate in Israeli retaliation. Homeland Security spokesman John Kirby repeated that message this morning.
John Kirby, White House National Security Communications Advisor:
It will be up to the Israelis what the next step will be. I’ll just say that President Biden, since the beginning of this conflict, has worked very hard to prevent this from escalating into a broader regional war to avoid tensions. Scaling.
Senior officials said today that the G7 organization of countries would likely impose new coordinated sanctions and that other countries would possibly join the United States in designating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization. We’re waiting for the primary response, we’re waiting for the response from the Israeli army.
Jean Yang:
Nick, let’s start with last night’s hunt. But there is a remarkable effect of the fact that Israel has mitigated this attack. The U. S. has transferred some U. S. assets to the region well. How vital were they in this operation?
Nick Schifrin:
President Biden himself has said it’s critical for Israel and the U. S. to work in a coordinated manner on this reaction over the past 10 days, a senior administration official said, and that included moving fighter squadrons into broader positions. And those fighter squadrons shot down more than 70 drones. The U. S. also moved another destroyer into the domain to join an existing destroyer. And that’s enough to shoot down 4 or six of the more than 100 ballistic missiles fired through Iran into Israel.
We are not aware of any past case in history between the U. S. and Israel in which the U. S. has introduced aircraft in an attack on Israel or fired missiles from ships in an attack on Israel. Strategically, the explanation for why this is so important, John, is that a senior administration official said that if this attack had succeeded, there would have been, quote, uncontrollable escalation and broader regional conflict.
The U. S. believes this attack was surely aimed at killing Israelis and inflicting extensive damage. And the fact is, it’s not. And if that had happened, Israel and Iran are supposed to be at war by now.
Jean Yang:
As Israel looks to the future, think about what it will do next. What are they comparing, and what does the U. S. tell them?
Nick Schifrin:
Israeli media have reported in the past that there was a quick Cabinet meeting last night in which Israeli leaders considered a quick attack, but that the Biden-Bibi and Netanyahu-Biden phone calls appear to have mitigated that possibility, and Israeli officials today say they will strike whenever they are lied to: they deem it appropriate.
There are characteristics of the military — many characteristics of the military for Israel, of course, within Iran itself, whether it’s the Iranian government, the IRGC, or even the nutransparent sites — but a senior administration official said two vital things today: First, Israel has made it clear to us that this is not a significant escalation with Iran. If that’s right. This means that they will not directly attack Iran, at least for the time being.
And secondly, a senior administration official stated very clearly that we would not participate in any reaction on his part. It’s a long-standing U. S. policy, but to say that is to send the message to Israel: If you do that, or especially if you attack Iran, you’re left to fend for yourself.
And part of what the administration says it’s looking to do is, quote, slow things down. And as you said, it’s about diplomacy. The U. S. hopes to isolate Iran through some of those sanctions and perhaps terrorism designations as well.
And the other coin is less isolation, they hope in Israel. You have observed in the last few hours that the diplomats of the European Union, the diplomats of the United Nations, who have been very critical of Israel because of the war in Gaza, support Israel, and it is – and is – condemning Iran, unequivocally.
And that’s where we are today, focusing on diplomacy, said President Hertzog of Israel, and I quote: “We are not a war, but we will see how Israel decides to respond.
Jean Yang:
Nick Schifrin, thank you very much.
Nick Schifrin:
Thank you.
Jean Yang:
Bring in Aaron David Miller. Es a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He has played a key role in U. S. policy in the Middle East for each and every president, from Jimmy Carter to George W. Bush.
Aaron wonders, as Israel ponders its next step, how significant this attack is. Administration officials say the attack was higher than they expected. And yet, Israel has managed to mitigate the fact that it has caused relatively little damage.
Aaron David Miller, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Honestly, I think it’s an ordinary testament to technology. Iron Dome and Arrow Three, which is the last arrow and the last iteration, as well as incredibly significant assistance from American and Israeli aircraft.
I mean, 350 crews, ballistic and unmanned drones. I think it’s a vital step in Modern Warfare, given how effective those layered defenses are. So I think it’s pretty extraordinary.
Jean Yang:
And it has been reported that last night President Biden pleaded with Prime Minister Netanyahu to win and do nothing. What do you think of this advice?
Aaron David Miller:
You know, I think the president doesn’t need to see escalation, even anything that could turn into a full-blown regional war, which would be exchanges over an extended period between Israel and Iran with ballistic missiles.
A first outbreak of violence has escalated into a primary war between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah can cover as much as possible for Israel with its long-range weapons and I suspect that Mr. Biden also understands this in a situation such as that in which the customers of U. S. involvement are high.
So he gave the Israeli prime minister the recommendation that maybe he could pocket if he wins. You now occupy a higher ethical ground. Tensions between the U. S. and Israel have not necessarily allowed anyone to communicate about conditioning military assistance, or restricting it to a small portion, or ending it, to Israel. All of this, I believe, is taken seriously through the would-be Israel. war.
Jean Yang:
You know, Iran said last night that it kind of closed the door on the Syrian attack that triggered this reaction that they were responding to, if Iran doesn’t need to do more, what about their proxies?What about Hezbollah? Are they more likely to step up their efforts?
Aaron David Miller:
I think those attacks will continue. But Iran only has one vote, but the Israelis also have one vote. So it’s smart for the Iranians to say it’s all over. But they are not the only ones concerned in this case.
I suspect that the pro-Iranian militias, at least in the short term, will give the Israelis any pretext or excuse to react. But I think that and the war closets are divided on this point, I think everybody, adding up the five, adding the men against, believes that answers are necessary, I think the time for that answer is up in the air. And the extent of that reaction is uncertain.
So, I think Israel is now going to take advantage of the fact that it has a huge — the G7 was ordinary in terms of aid to Israel, lack of fear of Israeli attacks, and a force that also seemed to isolate Iran.
So I think the Israelis are going to enjoy that for a while, but at some point I think there will be accounting and it will be about Iranian assets in Iran.
Jean Yang:
What effect does all this have on the war in Gaza, and specifically on the negotiations to try to get the hostages back?
Aaron David Miller:
I believe that this is a grave tragedy on the part of the hostages and their families. Hamas had no genuine incentive. They claim that the tension exerted on Israel and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza have worked in their favour. It took them a while to receive a higher offer.
And frankly, I’m sure the Netanyahu government felt such urgency given that any hostage-free deal would result in the release of an asymmetrical number of Palestinian prisoners, which would put strain on Netanyahu’s own coalition.
But I think Hamas will now wait to see how much chaos, confrontation and confusion will result from this eventual combat between Iran and Israel. And I suspect there may not be a hostage deal and probably no operation against Rafah either, but Gaza will. be the concentrate because of its proximity problem. And hostage meetings. And I think they’re still determined to eliminate the most sensible leaders.
Jean Yang:
Aaron David Miller, thank you very much.
Aaron David Miller:
Thank you jean.
Ali Rogin is a correspondent for PBS News Weekend and a foreign affairs reporter for PBS NewsHour.
Kaisha Young is a producer for PBS News Weekend.
Satvi Sunkara is an assistant at PBS News Weekend.
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