Israel and Iran downplayed a blatant Israeli airstrike near a major air and nuclear base in central Iran on Friday, signaling that the two bitter foes are poised to prevent their new eruption of violence from escalating into a full-blown regional war.
But the indecisive final results of weeks of tensions — which included an alleged Israeli strike that reportedly killed two Iranian generals, an unprecedented Iranian missile attack on Israel and the obvious Israeli attack Friday morning in central Iran — did little to ease more domestic grievances. . between the enemies and left the door open for further fights.
“It turns out that we are closer than ever to a full-blown regional war; the foreign network will probably make wonderful efforts to ease tensions,” wrote Amos Harel, a commentator on military affairs for the Israeli daily Haaretz.
Israel has long viewed Iran as its greatest enemy, bringing up the Islamic Republic’s calls for Israel’s destruction, its questionable nuclear program, and its hostile proxies across the Middle East.
These tensions have risen since Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Palestinian teams subsidized through Iran, attacked Israel on Oct. 7, triggering a devastating Israeli offensive in Gaza that has been going on for more than six months. The delay began striking Israeli targets, initiating fighting on a second front, while Iranian-subsidized militias in Iraq, Syria and Yemen have also fired missiles and drones at Israel during the war.
Although Israel and Iran have been waging a ghost war for years, most commonly in neighboring Syria, they have largely avoided direct confrontation. This situation was replaced after an April 1 airstrike killed two Iranian generals at an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, the Syrian capital. Although Israel did not comment, Iran blamed Israel for the attack and vowed revenge.
Iran responded with its first direct attack on Israel, launching more than 300 missiles and attack drones on Saturday night. Israel, working with a U. S. -led foreign coalition, said it intercepted 99% of the incoming fire, even as a handful of controlled missiles landed, causing slight damage to an Israeli army base and seriously injuring a young girl.
In Friday’s attack, Iranian state television said air defense batteries had fired in several provinces following reports of drones in flight. Iran’s army commander, Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, said the crews targeted several flying objects.
“This morning’s explosion in the sky over Isfahan is similar to the firing of air defense systems at a suspicious object that did not cause any damage,” Mousavi said.
Officials said air defenses fired on a main air base near Isfahan, which has long been home to Iran’s fleet of American-made F-14 Tomcats, purchased before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Isfahan is also home to sites related to Iran’s nuclear program, its underground Natanz enrichment site, which has been the target of alleged Israeli sabotage attacks on several occasions. Friday’s apparent attack took place on the 85th birthday of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
State television described all Iranian nuclear sites in the region as “completely safe. “The U. N. ‘s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, also said there is “no damage” to Iran’s nuclear sites.
Iranian officials made no mention of possible Israeli involvement. This may simply be intentional, especially after Iranian officials have threatened for days to respond to any Israeli retaliatory strike.
Israel has also not commented on the obvious attack, even though a hardline minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, hinted at his displeasure in a one-word tweet on Friday morning, a slang word for weak or lame.
But Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani told a summit of Western leaders in Capri that the United States had received “breaking news” from Israel about the attack. Secretary of State Antony Blinken disputed this, but said, “We have been involved in any offensive operation. “
Yoel Guzansky, a former Iran expert in the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, said Israel appears to have carried out the attack to “tick a box” by sending a message to Iran without doing anything too provocative that could disappoint the United States, which has called for restraint or face further Iranian retaliation.
This satellite symbol from Planet Labs PBC shows the civilian airport and dual-use air base in Isfahan, Iran, Thursday, April 18, 2024 (Planet Labs PBC AP).
“It’s very limited to send the message that ‘we can attack the inside of Iran,'” said Guzansky, a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank.
He said that “the existing cycle” of violence appears to have ended, but that “nothing has changed,” and that Israel still faces threats from Iranian-backed fronts.
“I see other tricks,” he said. And next time, if Iran surprises Israel or if its allies don’t do it in Israel’s defense, “the outcome will be different. “
A map showing the location of Iran with its capital, Tehran. (AP Photo)
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for an end to the strikes.
“The time has come to prevent the damaging cycle of retaliation in the Middle East,” he said.
Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute and a longtime regional analyst, disputed Iran’s claims that drones carried out the strikes. A small number of Israeli jets are believed to have flown over Syria from Israel, hitting at least two military bases in southern Syria with air defense systems, he said.
People on the Mount of Olives overlooking the Dome of the Rock on the grounds of the Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem’s Old City, Friday, April 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
They then entered Iraqi airspace, from where they fired a small number of Blue Sparrow air-to-ground ballistic missiles, probably without even entering Iranian airspace, Lister said.
Accounts of explosions over Iraq are in this situation, as are the remains of what appears to be the propellant of an Israeli-made Blue Sparrow missile that Iraqi security discovered in a box on the outskirts of Baghdad, Lister said.
“In other words, the Israelis would never have needed to enter Iranian airspace to carry out this attack,” Lister said. “I think it’s a way for Israel to send the message that we can succeed anywhere we want. “
If this new circular sub-aspect is fulfilled, Israel can now refocus on its ongoing war in Gaza and the simmering fighting with Hezbollah. With neither side budging, the threat of further clashes with Iran remains high, even if neither side is enthusiastic after Friday’s obvious Israeli response. attack.
“Neither side is in a position to jump the chasm,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute. But he added one main caveat.
“We’re probably going back to a proxy war,” he said, but now it’s a proxy war with the threat of “this sudden eruption of a war between states. . . that we didn’t have to worry about before. “
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Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi, Mehdi Fattahi and Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran; Bassem Mroue in Beirut; Ellen Knickmeyer in Washington; Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad; and Nicole Winfield in Capri, Italy; contributed to this report.
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