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Nucleic acid, DNA or RNA vaccines show a wonderful promise in the fight against COVID-19. Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Modern Clinical (NASDAQ: MRNA) are the most prominent names involved in the progression of candidate vaccines opposed to messenger RNA coronavirus (mRNA).
In terms of chronology, the products of these two corporations are likely to enter the market place largely from others, meaning they will likely fight for the merit of the first to arrive and for market share. However, this is not a peer-to-peer match. – Pfizer already enjoys merit thanks to its strong clinical and advertising execution capabilities, which can be a significant competitive merit, as vaccine applicants will download emergency use authorizations (USA). U. S. ) From the U. S. Food and Drug Administration, the U. S. Food and Drug Administration has not been able to do so. U. S. A. (FDA) founded on limited data.
Pfizer partnered with the German company BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX) to expand an mNRA candidate vaccine called BNT162b2. Corporations reported encouraging knowledge on the protection and immunogenicity of the ongoing Phase 1 trial, with effects suggesting that a two-dose nutrition of BNT162b2 has a fair protection and tolerability profile. Data from the Phase 1 trial also showed that handling BNT162b2 leads to a buildup of T-cell types that produce antibodies and fight viral infections.
Increased T-cell activity is important because these cells are components of the body’s adaptive immune formula, a formula that remembers, learns, and cares about triggering long-term express immune responses opposed to foreign bodies.
To date, BNT162b2 is the candidate vaccine opposed to coronavirus that has effectively caused a strong T-cell reaction shown in human trials. In addition, this experimental vaccine has also been linked to a larger number of a specific type of T cells that appear to be offering greater coverage against germs. Several reports of studies have shown a link between the immune reaction of T cells and the long-term coverage opposed to COVID-19.
Pfizer and BioNTech have completed the recruitment of approximately 11,000 of the 30,000 participants required for phase 2/3 of the fundamental test. Registration may be completed until the end of September, with first knowledge in a position until mid-September and full knowledge for the FDA’s Vaccine Advisory Committee is scheduled to meet on October 22, and Pfizer’s schedule puts it well for a imaginable U. S.
Pfizer is one of 8 corporations interested in the progression of potential anti-COVID-19 vaccines to take advantage of the US government investment for Operation Warp Speed. In July 2020, Pfizer and BioNtech reached an agreement with the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Department of Defense (DoD) to supply the first 100 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. for $ 1. 95 billion. The United States government also has the option of obtaining an additional 500 million doses. The agreement is presented to Pfizer and BioNTech obtaining full approval, or at least one US, from the FDA and being to manufacture the required number of doses.
In July 2020, Pfizer and BioNTech also entered into agreements with the UK and the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) to administer 30 million doses and 120 million doses of the vaccine, respectively. COVID-19 (subject to regulatory success). The companies have also expressed interest in supplying vaccines to the Covax facility, which is an insurance policy for global vaccine distribution coordinated through the Gavi vaccine alliance, the World Health Organization. (WHO) and others.
Pfizer and BioNTech are preparing to manufacture up to one hundred million doses by the end of 2020 and 1. 3 billion doses by the end of 2021. Pfizer has known 3 of his US. But it’s not the first time And one in Belgium for the manufacture of the vaccine. it is also working to increase vaccine production capacity at two of its production plants. Since the BNT162b2 will be manufactured mainly internally, we can expect fewer source interruptions and greater quality control.
If approved through the FDA, BNT162b2 sales will peak during the pandemic, possibly lasting until 2021 and even into the first months of 2022. After that, Pfizer expects the vaccine to generate a steady stream of revenue. through repeated vaccinations over several years. .
I estimate that maximum sales of BNT162b2 can succeed at $2 billion through 2021. I have taken a cautious stance to accommodate the highest point of uncertainty in the COVID-19 vaccine progression space.
Recent surveys recommend that part of the population in evolved markets such as the United States and the United Kingdom plan to get vaccinated when a coronavirus vaccine becomes available. Using the dose-consistent $ 19. 50 value as a benchmark for evolved markets, we arrived at an overall value consistent with the patient spending of $ 39 for this two-dose regimen.
Lately, Pfizer represents 13% of the global market for vaccines and I, the company, can leverage this infrastructure to capture at least 6% of the market for coronavirus vaccines in the evolved world, giving us a conservative estimate of sales of around 1,520 million dollars.
Developing markets have a much more consistent decline with capita income source than evolved countries, so my estimate of BNT162b2 sales in those markets is only $ 500 million, despite a much larger overall population. These markets also have a declining addressable population and pose a number of demanding scenarios similar to pricing, logistics, and access. The mRNA vaccines will have to be stored at ultra-cold temperatures consistent with the eggs, and the distribution and management of the required infrastructure will be a major constraint to the large-scale adoption of mRNA vaccines in emerging countries.
In the long term, the COVID-19 vaccine market will have room for many players. The most effective and protective profiles will determine which vaccines will remain on the market. Right now, we may not see much difference in vaccine knowledge sets, given the incredibly tight schedules, which is why Pfizer’s market functions will be incredibly vital in the short term.
That said, there’s no guarantee of success. BNT162b2, although it looks promising, is based on a generation platform that has not been commercially renewed. Pfizer also plans to use dry ice shipping boxes to send the vaccine. However, Moderna goes a step further by seeking to demonstrate the stability of its mRNA vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273, at general cooling temperatures. If Moderna succeeds, it can be deastrous to Pfizer’s ambitions.
Thanks to its wide diversification, Pfizer has much more to offer than the possible coronavirus vaccine. As the world’s largest pharmaceutical company, its product portfolio aims at healing spaces and has a broad presence in all geographies. Ibrance (for breast cancer), Xeljanz (for arthritis), Eliquis (which treats blood clots and strokes) and Prevnar thirteen (which vaccine against pneumococcal pneumonia) are its main strengths.
The split of Pfizer’s generic business, Upjohn to Mylan (NASDAQ: MYL), is expected to close until the end of 2020. While this would possibly reduce the flow of money in the short term, the agreement will cause Pfizer to exit its low-margin products and position itself as a high-growth biopharmaceutical company. Pfizer is also paying a healthy final yield of 4%, well above the S average
Despite its many advantages, Pfizer quotes at prices/sales (P/S), price/gains (P/E) and reduces PEG than other pioneers in coronavirus vaccines.
Investing in coronavirus vaccine kits is increasingly speculative. However, Pfizer has a favorable risk-reward proposition, and for healthcare investors looking to play this vaccine game, today would be a smart buy.