JONATHAN ERNST/POOL VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS
U. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken returns to Baghdad International Airport from the foreign zone by helicopter after meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani at Baghdad International Airport, Iraq, on Nov. 5. Over the past two months, Iranian-backed factions in Iraq have forced the Baghdad government into a balancing act that is becoming more complicated by the day.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Iraqis attend the funeral of members of Kataib Hezbollah in Najaf, Iraq, on Nov. 22. Kataib Hezbollah fighters were killed in U. S. airstrikes in reaction to attacks on U. S. forces at Al-Asad airbase this week.
BAGHDAD (AP) — Dozens of attacks on U. S. military installations by Iranian-backed factions in Iraq over the past two months as the war between Israel and Hamas raged raged have forced Baghdad into a balancing act that grows more complicated as the day goes on.
A rocket attack on the sprawling U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on Friday marked a further escalation as Iraqi officials scramble to contain the ripple effects of the latest Middle East war.
Iran holds considerable sway in Iraq and a coalition of Iran-backed groups brought Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to power in October 2022. At the same time, there are some 2,000 U.S. troops in Iraq under an agreement with Baghdad, mainly to counter the militant Islamic State group.
Baghdad also relies heavily on U. S. sanctions waivers to buy electric power from Iran, and since the 2003 U. S. invasion, Iraq’s foreign exchange reserves have been housed in the U. S. Federal Reserve, giving Americans a significant amount of Iraqi dollar supply.
Al-Sudani’s predecessors also had to cross a line between Tehran and Washington, but the war between Israel and Hamas has raised the stakes considerably.
Since the war began on Oct. 7, at least 91 attacks on U. S. bases in Iraq and Syria have been claimed through an Iranian-backed Iraqi militant organization called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. Activists say their attacks are retaliation for Washington’s policy toward Israel. and its military presence in Iraq and Syria.
Al-Sudani condemned the U. S. attacks and counterattacks as a violation of his country’s sovereignty. It also ordered the government to prosecute the activists involved in the attacks, most of whom caused no injuries and only minor damage. He declined to comment further.
Washington has sent messages that it has run out of patience.
After the embassy attack, the Pentagon said that Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “made clear (to al-Sudani) that attacks against U.S. forces must stop.”
U. S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told al-Sudani that Washington expects Iraqi officials to take further steps to prevent such attacks and believes they have the capability to do so, a U. S. official told The Associated Press.
During a recent visit to the region, CIA Director William Burns warned al-Sudani of “serious consequences” if Iraq does not act to prevent the attacks, an Iraqi official said.
The two spoke on condition of anonymity, in accordance with reporting rules.
In a call with the Iraqi prime minister earlier this month, Blinken said the Americans would take matters into their own hands, arguing that Baghdad had done enough to prosecute the perpetrators, according to two Iraqi officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were legal. to comment publicly.
Two days later, a U. S. strike on a released drone near the Iraqi city of Kirkuk killed five militants.
The U.S. and much of the international community have scrambled to prevent the war in the besieged Gaza Strip from expanding across the region.
Analyst Renad Mansour said he believed Iran would ensure attacks remained below a threshold that would galvanize a primary U. S. response.
“Iran and Iraq have so far maintained a transparent line that, for the time being, Iraq cannot be a playground that can destabilize the Sudanese government,” said Mansour, a senior fellow at the Chatham House think tank.
He explained that this is partly due to Iraq’s role in transmitting messages between Washington and Tehran.
Sometimes the messenger is al-Sudani.
In early November, Blinken met with al-Sudani in Baghdad a day before the Iraqi prime minister’s stopover in Tehran. Al-Sudani had received an express promise from the militias that no attacks would occur on the Blinken scale, according to an Iraqi official. and a member of the Kataib Hezbollah militia. After the stopover, al-Sudani relayed a message from Blinken to Iran to rein in the militias.
The two officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they had the right to make public comments.
A week after the Iraqi minister’s diplomatic efforts, the United States extended for four months the exemption from sanctions imposed on Iraq to buy Iranian electricity. Iranian hawks in Washington criticized the move, saying it would bolster Tehran’s revenue at a time when its proxies are at war with Israel.
Mansour says Washington has used the lifting of sanctions as “one of its cards” in its economic efforts toward Iran and Iraq.
Unlike Lebanon’s Hezbollah, considered Iran’s top hardliner in the region, Iraqi militias have played only a limited role in the conflict.
For now, a small number of Iraqi militants are in southern Lebanon, near Israel’s northern border, the Kataib Hezbollah official said. He said the Iraqis were racing to “manage the fighting” along with Hezbollah and representatives of Hamas, the militant organization that has ruled Gaza for 16 years and lately is fighting Israel.
He said Iranian-backed teams in Iraq need the standoff to spread to the region, but are ready to respond forcefully to any attack.
Should Iran and allies choose to escalate, al-Sudani’s government will likely be unable to rein them in or prevent consequences on Iraqi soil, said Iyad al-Anbar, a political science professor at Baghdad University.
“And that’s why all al-Sudani were able to try to bring some calm through statements,” al-Anbar said.
Chehayeb reported from Beirut. Associated Press Matthew Lee in Washington contributed to this report.
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