How many coronavirus cases does a country really have?
This is a low-care consultation in Iran, which has the worst coronavirus epidemic in the Middle East and possibly its most confusing response.
The country’s president, Hassan Rohani, said 25 million Iranians have been inflamed with the disease since February.
That is more than a quarter of Iran’s population and more times the number of recently registered coronavirus instances in the United States, which are number one in the world.
The numbers are much higher than coronavirus infections in Iran, which exceeded 300,000, with around 17,400 deaths.
“This means that Array … the rest of the population, involving about 30.35 million people, will likely be exposed to COVID-19 in the coming months,” Rohani told the Iranian coronavirus control organization, presenting a report from the Ministry of Fitness’s study department.
“So we’re dealing with a population of tens of millions of other people and out of every 1,000 people infected, about a hundred would possibly want to be hospitalized.”
“Then we have to prepare for those circumstances.”
But after the president’s comments, the Department of Health goes back in the numbers.
They issued a saying that the figures were speculative, had been provided by a junior staff member, and that Mr. Rohani had meant “exposed” rather than “infected.”
However, even with this confusing clarification, big questions remain about the coronavirus figures in Iran.
The fact is, no one is sure of the actual number of infections.
Since the first symptoms of coronavirus gave the impression in Iran, some have expressed doubts about official figures.
This week alone, an investigation through the BBC Persian Service reported that the number of coronavirus deaths in Iran nearly tripled what the Iranian government claims.
He reported that the government’s own records appear to show that only about 42,000 more people died from COVID-19 symptoms as of July 20, to 14,405 reported by its Ministry of Health.
The survey also found that the number of others increased by almost double the official figures, to 451,024 compared to 278,827.
However, he stated that an undervaluation point is observed around the world, largely due to the ability to verify.
The Iranian fitness government denied the report, there was no cover-up.
On the same day, state television reported that one user died of COVID-19 every seven minutes in Iran.
This is further reflected, as the figures reported by the Ministry of Health should be, spokesman Sima Sadat Lari said on state television on Monday (local time) saying there have been 215 deaths in the last 24 hours.
As for the research paper quoted by Mr Rouhani, the World Health Organisation had not seen it and said testing data was not consistent across Iran.
The organization has stated in the past that it has no position on the use of serological controls, which are a digital puncture examination that analyzes serum or plasma to detect the presence of antibodies generated to combat COVID-19.
“There are more and more sero-prevalence studies of COVID-19 antibodies conducted in Iran, in other populations, with other control kits and variable quality plans,” Christoph Hamelmann, the Iranian who who representative, told ABC.
“Everyone should be treated with caution at this time until a detailed review and evaluation is completed, adding the verification kits used.”
But the WHO does share the Government’s pessimistic assessment of where Iran’s outbreak is headed.
“We are seeing, for weeks, a return of increasing numbers of hospitalisations, ICU patients and reported deaths,” Dr Hamelmann said.
Nevertheless, Iran’s leadership has completely reversed its approach to the virus, after initially denying, then downplaying the outbreak.
The delayed response in the early days of the pandemic led to a severe first wave of COVID-19 cases, but Iran’s second wave has been even worse.
The Government — struggling under United States sanctions and a “maximum pressure” campaign from the Trump administration — has no money and few options to limit the spread of the virus.
So far, Iranians have been told not to hold weddings and funerals; are not forbidden.
But the government fears more infections as others have just celebrated the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha and are preparing for the holy month of Muharram.
While some have to cancel the festivities amid the escalation of the COVID-19 situation, domestic politics has also come into play.
Rohani, noted as politically moderate, faces a significant complaint from the so-called extremists of Iran, conservatives who favor a confrontational technique in the United States.
“He needs to appease the hardliners when it comes to the rituals of the month of Muharram,” Sina Azodi, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the ABC.
“So he needs to come and say, ‘no, we’re going to do this, we’re going to hold the rituals, hold the gatherings’ but at the same time his own health ministry says ‘please stay home, do not come out’.
“There are so many fronts you have to face.”
It means Mr Rouhani, whose term ends next year, could be using inflated estimates of the virus spread to scare Iranians into social distancing and avoiding mass gatherings.
The coronavirus pandemic also hit Iran as the Government faced a series of crises, from mass demonstrations to the shooting down of a Ukrainian airlines flight near Tehran filled with Iranian students.
Lately, mysterious explosions and fires have fuelled speculation Israel or the US are attacking sensitive sites within Iran.
Azodi said crises hit a government that had already lost acceptance of citizens.
“If the government says something, because of the lack of acceptance as true in government, other people tend not to pay attention to the guidelines, even when the government is right and has a proper approach,” he said.
“This is a major problem in the country.”
ABC