Simultaneous reports that Iran will launch new attacks on Saudi Arabia and Iraqi Kurdistan as it prepares missile deliveries to Russia for use against Ukraine demonstrate Tehran’s increased willingness to escalate beyond its borders.
The Wall Street Journal first reported Tuesday that Saudi Arabia warned the United States about an Iranian plan to attack internal targets of the kingdom and Iraqi Kurdistan.
The report was released a day after paramilitaries from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shared a video on their Telegram channel threatening to launch drone strikes opposed to U. S. and Israeli targets in the Middle East. While such videos are rare, the timing of this may imply that Iran is setting the bar for extra-high-profile attacks in the region.
Iran’s allies, the Houthis, have attacked Saudi Arabia with Iranian-designed ballistic missiles and drones during the war in Yemen. with alarming accuracy.
Iran has also hit Iraqi Kurdistan with an increasing number of fatal attacks. Last September, it introduced a series of drone and missile movements aimed at sites belonging to Iranian Kurdish opposition groups. The movements coincided with the ongoing protests in Iran and were the most opposed. to the autonomous region in years. By targeting those groups, Tehran has obviously sought to divert attention from the burgeoning women-led protest movement across the country, sparked by the infamous death of Mahsa (Jina) Amini in the custody of so-called moral police on September 16.
The pretext for any next Iranian attack on Iraqi Kurdistan, Saudi Arabia or in the region is likely to stick to more or less the same situation that invariably accuses outside instigators of stoking those protests, the largest Iran has faced in more than 40 years. .
From the regime’s perspective, it makes sense to escalate regional tensions to divert attention from this internal turmoil. It is unclear whether Tehran intends to stoke tensions to the point of risking triggering a regional conflagration. Although this is an option that cannot be governed. After all, post-revolutionary Iran was embroiled in internal clashes and violence that resembled a civil war in its early days. The existing Islamist regime was only able to fully consolidate its strength after the invasion of Iraq in 1980 allowed it to mobilize and unify the majority of the population that opposes this external threat. The regime would possibly be betting that the escalation of tensions in the region may also create a similar rally around the flag effect that can explode to curb this popular protest movement.
At the same time, the Saudis issued the warning, with CNN mentioning “officials from a Western country that is heavily following Iran’s weapons program,” reporting that Iran is preparing to send another 1,000 weapons to Russia, adding more drones and short aircraft. Range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), which will be used in opposition to Ukraine. This is the first known shipment of Iranian SRBMs to Russia and is expected to be completed by the end of the year.
On Tuesday, the defense intelligence service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also announced that Iran would send Russia more than two hundred combat drones. The shipment will come with Arash-2 vagrant munitions that are faster and have greater diversity than Iranian-made Shaheds. -136s that Russia opposes Kyiv.
For months, recurring reports and estimates recommend that Russia has exhausted much of its stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles since the war began. The acquisition of thousands of drones and SRBM payloads from Iran allows Moscow to continue bombing Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure.
In addition to being the main foreign supplier of weapons to the aggressor in Europe’s largest war since World War II, Iran is also directly aiding the Russian war effort. their new Iranian drones after they failed. As the New York Times noted, the deployment “appears to coincide with increased use of drones in Ukraine and indicates deeper Iranian involvement in the war. “
The SRBMs delivered by Iran are likely Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar, which have levels of between 186 and 435 miles, respectively. Unlike the noisy, slow Shahed drones, Ukraine will likely locate those incredibly hard-to-shoot down missiles as far as Kyiv. It is supplied with much more complicated air defenses.
These SRBMs, more roaming munitions and the IRGC technique will undoubtedly play a vital role in allowing Russia to continue destroying Ukraine’s national force network, which, unsurprisingly, could freeze large numbers of Ukrainian civilians this winter.
These reported developments are a stark reminder that everything that happens in Iran in the coming weeks and months can have significant repercussions around the world.