The city of Kapan, a sleepy mining network nestled in the mountains of southeastern Armenia, is an unlikely hub for foreign diplomacy. But in October, Armenian officials gathered in its central square to cut the ribbon of a new consulate with the logo and welcome the delegation. from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Just 3 kilometers from the site of Tehran’s new foreign project is the border with Azerbaijan. The Syunik region surrounding Armenia, of which Kapan is the capital, is at the center of the unfolding dispute between Yerevan and Baku, who fought a brief but bloody war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020. Now Tehran is reeling in the dispute, launching political and military aid to Yerevan.
A few days before the consulate’s opening, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that its troops were conducting “massive” war games on the Iran-Azerbaijan border, according to the Iranian brigadier. According to General Mohammad Pakpur, the trainings were designed to send a message of “peace and friendship” to countries in the region, while demonstrating their ability to “respond decisively to any threat. “
The city of Kapan, a sleepy mining network nestled in the mountains of southeastern Armenia, is an unlikely hub for foreign diplomacy. But in October, Armenian officials gathered in its central square to cut the ribbon of a new consulate with the logo and welcome the delegation. from the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Just 3 kilometers from the site of Tehran’s new foreign project is the border with Azerbaijan. The Syunik region surrounding Armenia, of which Kapan is the capital, is at the center of the unfolding dispute between Yerevan and Baku, who fought a brief but bloody war over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2020. Now Tehran is reeling in the dispute, launching political and military aid to Yerevan.
A few days before the consulate’s opening, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that its troops were conducting “massive” war games on the Iran-Azerbaijan border, according to the Iranian brigadier. According to General Mohammad Pakpur, the trainings were designed to send a message of “peace and friendship” to countries in the region, while demonstrating their ability to “respond decisively to any threat. “
Reacting to the escalation of tensions in the South Caucasus, the US State Department spokesman for the US State Department was asked to intervene. U. S. Secretary of State Ned Price told reporters in early November that Washington has been “very transparent that Iran poses a risk to the region” and will continue “ultimately, to oppose the kind of destabilizing influence that Iran presents and — in its region and beyond.
As a relatively liberal democracy that prides itself on being the world’s leading Christian nation, Armenia is an unlikely spouse for Iran. However, after Armenian towns and villages along the border were briefly bombed in Azerbaijan in September, and Western officials blamed Baku for firing first: Yerevan is looking anywhere it can locate it.
Despite Yerevan’s club in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military bloc, Russia has so far rejected Armenia’s calls to intervene. sponsor, Turkey, whom Iran has long suspected and noted as a possible rival in the region.
In November 2020, Yerevan and Baku signed a Moscow-backed ceasefire agreement after more than a month of fierce fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies within Azerbaijan’s identified borders around the world but which Armenian forces have maintained since the 1990s. After a series of battlefield defeats, Armenia agreed to cede swathes of territory and pledged to “ensure the security of maritime communications” between mainland Azerbaijan and its enclave of Nakhchivan through the Syunik region – which divides the two – “with a view to organizing the loose movement of citizens, cars and goods in any direction.
Azerbaijani officials have since made it clear that they interpret the pact to mean that they will be granted a sovereign highway, billed as the “Zanzur Corridor,” that would pass through the southernmost component of Syunik, potentially dividing Armenia and Iran. Yerevan, however, insists that the request has no basis in the 2020 agreement. Analysts were quick to characterize September’s hostilities to Baku’s growing frustration over the inability to get what it needs through diplomatic channels.
Distracted by its war in Ukraine, the Kremlin is unwilling or unable to vouch for Yerevan’s safety, although it is a member of the CSTO and is obliged to interfere if your spouse is attacked. Russia’s resolve not to send troops into the country. after September clashes sparked mass protests in Yerevan, with Armenian demonstrators calling for withdrawal from the CSTO. it will not be able to resist the plan if the Kremlin is on board.
Iran has long opposed any replacement of the prestige quo along its northern border, in part because it needs Turkey, Azerbaijan’s longtime ally, to expand its influence near its own borders. If there is an effort to block the Iran-Armenia border, the Islamic Republic will oppose it because this border has been a direction of communication for thousands of years,” the country’s ideal leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned at a July meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
“Tehran does not need Turkey to militarize or secure this corridor, and they do not need it to become non-negotiable for Azerbaijan. I think that’s what the opening of the consulate is looking to achieve,” said Hussein Banai, an associate professor. at Indiana University in Bloomington, which specializes in the region. “Iran is stepping up now because its leaders don’t feel Russia is doing enough to keep everyone under control. “
Iran has also become more involved in Azerbaijan’s close ties with Israel, as the two countries have begun exchanging military technology and Baku already provides 40 percent of the country’s energy needs. An Iranian lawmaker, Mohammad Safai, said in October that “the Zionists seek to undermine the Islamic Republic’s influence in Central Asia,” but “they will never succeed. “In an obvious reaction to the opening of the Iranian consulate in Kapan, Azerbaijan’s parliament voted in November to open an embassy in Israel, making it the first Shiite embassy in Israel. -Muslim-majority country to do so.
According to Banai, “Iran’s foreign policy is an extension of its internal paranoia. “Tehran’s moves abroad, he said, are aimed at “resistance buffer zones opposed to what it considers Western imperial and Zionist designs on its territory. “
If Tehran’s foreign policy is based on domestic paranoia, chances are its diplomats are now on high alert given the unprecedented protests across Iran in recent weeks that the government has blamed on Western powers. With the risk of an open uprising posing a major challenge to the regime, the prospect of rioting in spaces with large numbers of minority teams deprived of their rights is a growing concern, specifically in Iranian Azerbaijan, a region in northwestern Iran where many of the country’s citizens are esteemed. There are 15 million citizens of Azeri origin. Large-scale protests there, centered in the city of Tabriz, erupted in November after security forces killed a 23-year-old student.
In November, Aliyev took a veiled look at Iran’s remedy for his Azeri community, saying that “their safety, rights and well-being are of paramount importance to us” and that “we will continue to do everything possible to help Azerbaijanis who have discovered themselves. “isolated from our state. Several protest teams have emerged calling on Iranian Azerbaijan to secede from Iran and be ruled through Baku, while Aliyev’s security forces have made arrests after dismantling what they claim is an Iranian influence cell.
“The recent speech we heard from President Aliyev is a new development,” said Rusif Huseynov, a member of the auxiliary college of the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy and head of the think tank of the Baku-based Topchubashov Center. “In the past, Azerbaijani leaders have been very measured in their rhetoric and have been careful to irritate Iran. This is unprecedented, and I see it as a reaction to this subversive technique to Iran.
Iran’s interest in maintaining the prestige quo, Huseynov added, stems from its fears that “when the confrontation with Armenia is over, Azerbaijan will be strong enough to be hornier with Iranian Azeris and pose a danger to Iran’s own security. “For Tehran, Baku is less of a risk if it continues to have an internal standoff deeply rooted on its own soil and lacks the ability to build bridges with its longtime compatriots across the border.
However, there are other reasons why Iran has boosted closer ties with Armenia, one of the friendly countries in its immediate vicinity, namely the benefits that come from Yerevan’s impartial relations with the West.
“The Iranian government is employing Armenia as a point of contact with the open-air world,” said David Hovhannisyan, a former Armenian diplomat who now heads the branch of Arab studies at Yerevan State University. According to Hovhannisyan, senior officials of the Armenian regime for a rare respite from their own government’s restrictions, and turn a blind eye to other well-connected Iranians who are doing the same. “They can come here, buy goods that are not there, pay attention to our music. “, drinking alcohol, etc. “
Washington imposed sanctions on two Armenian corporations that it says acted against U. S. interests. The U. S. government is doing its way through cross-border trade with Iran, suggesting the country’s corporations are helping Tehran circumvent restrictions on loading sensitive gadgets and other goods. At the same time, Armenian monetary institutions have long presented a potential lifeline for Iranian banks and investors seeking to smuggle cash in or out of the country. A high-level business delegation from Tehran also visited Armenia in March as part of efforts to establish economic ties and regain much-needed revenue.
Meanwhile, unable to alienate its neighbor, Armenia joined 27 other countries in voting against a United Nations move in November condemning Iran for human rights abuses, adding the detention of nonviolent protesters.
But in the end, the links are more about expediency than ideological alignment. Zohrab Mnatsakanyan oversaw a policy of closer ties with Iran as Armenia’s foreign minister from 2018 to 2020. The partnership, he told Foreign Policy, is practical given the concerns of its neighbors. and the resumption of regional hostilities. ” While tensions have yet to be resolved in the region, the convergence of Armenian and Iranian interests in those cases ostensibly considers the security of their border not unusual,” he said.
Banai, at least, warns that the foreign network deserves to be involved and that Tehran is taking advantage of Yerevan’s vulnerability. “The West deserves to be concerned about the prospect of developing Iranian influence in Armenia, or elsewhere,” he said. “The region can easily become a flashpoint as the domestic scenario in Iran worsens. “As the Iranian regime faces increasingly fierce resistance at home, its movements abroad may become more belligerent, with potentially damaging consequences given the fragility of peace at home. South Caucasus.
“The tragedy of this scenario is that while we have this wonderful competition of strength, Armenia actually still has no choice to get what it can out of this hateful alliance because it is being cornered,” Banai added. But what Armenia might be an unfortunate need, it turns out that Iran decided to treat it as a prime opportunity.
Gabriel Gavin is a British journalist on Eurasian politics and society. Twitter: @GabrielCSGavin
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