Ongoing unrest in Iran, which has lasted for weeks, erupts every time the regime kills another young woman for giving up the hijab. Does this mean the end of the mullahocracy?The situation is far more complex than Western commentators seem to understand. And what about the recently reinvigorated strategic link between Moscow and Tehran, the use of Iranian drones and rockets in Ukraine?The world?
Let’s take them in order. This peak wave of protests in Iran first erupted in mid-September after the murder of young Mihsa Amini by hijab police. Already throughout the summer, the country had suffered from widespread unrest due to water shortages and general impoverishment. The new protests, however, had women and other young people at the forefront. Amini’s hometown in the Kurdish region of Iran erupted with the news of her death, and the unrest spread with maximum intensity to the Azeri regions, as well as the capital and other places. It is worth noting here the first complication of the big picture: that of outrage from ethnic regions opposed to the central government. In other words, the emerging risk of a regional fragmentation of the country, a critical challenge not only for the regime but also for the opposition as the government rushes to accuse the protesters of acting in the interests of foreign powers: Israel, the United States. , Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia – to separate Iran. Once again, the mullahs have discovered a useful tool for dividing the protesters: you must keep Iran whole, avoid protests.
The territorial unity of present-day Iran has never felt absolutely solid, much like Italy, which was only forcibly unified in 1861 with unresolved provincial grievances ever since. In either case, unity was achieved under an artificial monarch, in Iran’s case going back only to 1925 (with interruptions since then), which is why so many young protesters in Iran continue to call for the recovery of the Pahlavi monarchy. in exile It is a codified way of saying that we need revolution but not fragmentation. They are under no illusions about the weak legitimacy imposed by the British on the Pahlavi dynasty, but it is their way of indicating that they would like to replace the regime while keeping the country whole. But neither the (Turkish) province of West Azerbaijan nor the Kurdish region is entirely content with being ruled from Tehran. They both have ethnic brothers across the national border who call them; In the case of the Azeris, right next to it is a whole country called Azerbaijan. This is also why the pious rule of the mullahs seemed like a painfully appropriate solution when the Shah was overthrown in 1979: in the absence of a monarchy, Shiism held the country together.
So it’s a complication. The country may simply fragment. The protesters are toying with vast ancient forces. The same goes for the regime that necessarily provides the other people the Persian imperial expansion in position of democracy and enough food. But there’s another huge complication: the mullahs don’t run things. In fact, there is a rather casual de facto department of strength between the elected parliament, the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Of the three, parliament has the least oversight, while the IRGC deploys the most. The mullahs, at this point, provide the ideological front, but with the Revolutionary Guards as the underlying administrative police state. The Rev Guards have preponderant access to the country’s oil revenues and wield the most influence in law enforcement, the military, and intelligence. Qasem Soleimani was one of them. To adapt the poet Kipling’s saying, they have all the strength without the responsibility. This is why former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has suggested to IRGC officials to stand for election in a transparent manner; then they may just be held accountable.
Just one more detail here, which no one is telling you: when the firing position in the notorious criminal Evin recently made headlines around the world, it was the IRGC’s intelligence headquarters that was there. Yes, the headquarters of your entire intelligence operation. The safest position you would think. That’s why, when their same old cries of guilt “CIA, Mossad, foreign agents” seem for once credible. Russian forces. But there are other credible suspects besides Mossad or the CIA.
The rivalry between the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards is not seen to erupt in public view because there is so much to lose for both sides. civil war with the Democrats, Rev Guards and mullahs vying for the outcome. And the separatist regions that rebel for autonomy. Tragically, the IRGC is very likely to prevail, resulting in an expansionist police state with no ideological attenuation, which will only last with wonderful bloodshed and without any popular consent for a long time. Think of the Soviet Union without Marxist justification. In the absence of pan-Shiite glue or Islamist ideological drive, provinces are unlikely to remain on board, enduring poverty and repression, just for the sake of rebuilding the Persian empire in Iraq and Syria. Therefore, the government was opened through the IRGC. It also suggests fragmentation.
Supreme Leader Khamenei continues to propose his own son as successor with the implicit call for continuity and avoiding any further cause for controversy, this time over his successor. The IRGC is not entirely in agreement, it is also divided between those who need to gain legitimacy by coming out of the shadows and those who enjoy de facto force while letting the mullahs do the talking. An invitation to endless corruption. In general, it is a state of affairs that is very vulnerable to destabilization from the outside. As we have noted time and time again in such situations, external forces inevitably help in one way or another. The West, which has already been burned, reeling from Iraq and Afghanistan, will most likely avoid the fray. Moscow has already laid claim to recent strategic and military ties to Iranian-made missiles and Shahed drones over Ukraine. The Kremlin is used to ensuring the stability of hated regimes abroad. One would think that Iranians retain enough remnants of Russia’s decades-long colonial profession to know more. But Moscow and Tehran are so intent on playing the ultimate strategic game that they are risking everything at home.
Still haunted by internal atomization, either country has opted for a similar direction towards empire and away from democracy. Those who are baffled by the newly prominent ties between Moscow and Tehran have never seen their collaboration in Syria. Or that Iran has geostrategically helped the Kremlin. for years keeping the characteristics of Central Asian industry suppressed so that the region remains dependent on Russia. But, as this column has continually pointed out, especially after recent occasions in Ukraine, Moscow is losing control over its former Central Asian colonies. putting pressure on Caucasian countries such as Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia to become more independent. Russia risks squandering its hegemony over an entire part of its near-foreign land mass. Look at the map. Russia is connecting with geographically threatening Iranian neutrals by physically blocking access to the Western Caucasus and Central Asia.
What else is at stake? It is strange that Putin implicitly admits the weakness of his arms industry by loading drones from a foreign country, until you settle for the open gesture of alliance with Iran aimed at sending a public message. Geostrategically, as above. But also on a practical level. Allies will help each other escape oil sanctions. And they will merge their military-industrial complexes. Their cooperation abroad will now grow bigger far beyond Syria. Iranian troops have already been detected in Crimea and Belarus. Most importantly, Iran gains a strengthened ability to threaten Israel from the Kremlin. Moscow warns Israel not to help Ukraine, in a different way. how Hezbollah in Lebanon and the IRGC in Syria will obtain Russian weapons and intelligence.
As a result, Tel Aviv is very circumspect about Ukraine, at least in public. For example, Israel is one of only two evolved countries to publicly condemn the deployment of Iranian drones in Ukraine. that Israel is helping Ukraine. ) Until now, Moscow had quietly revealed to Israel the main points of rocket caches in Syria in recent years. It will stop. There is also undoubtedly an implicit nuclear risk underlying the possible reversal of the Kremlin’s covert pro-Israel policy. Only a handful of Moscow-supplied rockets or missiles with nuclear warheads in Iran’s hands would pose an existential risk to Israel. Meanwhile, it appears that the Kremlin is in the process of educating a contingent of the Afghan Taliban army to serve as mercenaries. Thus, the Kremlin is raising the stakes in Ukraine.
Moreover, the new alliance between Russia and Iran means that each will help the other remain intact. Or try. Moscow will help suppress popular will and separatist movements in Iran and bully Azerbaijan into stopping incitement to insurrection through its Azeri cousins in Iran. Heavy Israeli aid to Baku in recent years has been a threat to this division: Israeli drones and military aid played a vital role. in the defeat of Armenia in 2020 through Azerbaijani forces. Tel Aviv’s aid for Baku’s army is aimed at threatening Iran and diverting it from intrusions into the Middle East, thereby raising tension on Israel’s periphery. The Iran/Russia pact potentially neutralizes the Israel/Azerbaijan pact maneuver.
In the end, however, none of this will save the stage in Moscow or Tehran. Russia’s regions are becoming turbulent, as its men are forced to recruit and eventually die in the camps of Ukraine. Yakuts, Dagestanis, and Bashkirs will not willingly embark on this frozen, foodless, and chaotic mass suicide any longer. Putin will probably be sacrificed in place of maintaining the unity of the land mass, but this time the West will probably not please him. A few IRGC infantrymen in Ukraine will not replace the equation. And if the numbers multiply, it will only decrease in the territory. On this trajectory, Iran’s leaders will also face the same inescapable choice: the regime replaces or destroys the country.