Indonesia: disinflationary forces at stake – UOB

Economist Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Haris Handy of the UOB Group give their opinion on publications on inflation in the Indonesian economy.

“Indonesia’s annual inflation rate increased in September, marking the first acceleration since February. Inflation increased by 1. 42% year-on-year in September from 1. 32% in August, in line with market expectations. However, the customer’s value index still shows a deflation of 0. 05% on a monthly basis (similar to last month); indicating that the call remains moderate. “

“September’s inflationary impression influenced rising costs of volatile food, which rose 0. 55% year-on-year in September from -1. 09% in August. Meanwhile, fundamental and government-run costs have slowed down to 1. 86% to/to (from 2. 03% in August) and 0. 63% to/a (compared to 1. 03% in August), respectively. “

“In the future, we expect headline inflation to remain below and gradually recover below the government’s inflation target of 2. 0 to 4. 0% through faster disbursements to revive the economic recovery. However, the dangers of the problem persist until the customer’s trust has returned to its prepandemic state. with social restrictions that remain in their position in the capital of Jakarta. Overall, inflation is likely to remain benign and the government cutting the GDP projection for the year (new forecast: -1. 7% to -0. 6% compared to the previous forecast of -1. 1% to 0. 2%), we still see room for final relief of 25 Bank of Indonesia (BI) foundation emissions in the fourth quarter of 2020, reducing the readjustment rate from 7 days to less than 3. 75%. it’s likely to happen, especially if the IDR regains its appreciation trend. “

The EUR/USD pair is suffering around 1. 17, while President Donald Trump has said it tested positive for COVID-19. Inflation figures for the euro domain did not meet expectations, and the underlying CPI reached 0. 2%. Expected.

The GBP/USD pair jumped above 1. 29 after British Prime Minister Johnson intervened in the Brexit negotiations and scheduled a call with EC President von der Leyen, with higher hopes that they will raise the pound, while Trump’s coronavirus backs up the safe haven dollar.

Gold reversed an intraday drop to $1890 and rose to highs of 1-1/2 weeks at the start of the European session, lacking forged follow-up.

The ECB is launching public consultations on the virtual euro and is beginning to experiment with the new currency rate. Processes will take place in parallel. The final resolution will be taken in mid-2021.

U. S. reference crude oil costs prolonged the down correction Friday after President Trump tested for the coronavirus after Tuesday’s presidential debate.

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