In an online briefing, IMD Director General M. Mohapatra said that, quantitatively, rainfall will likely be 100 percent of the prolonged average during the period (LPA) of the monsoon season (June-September), with an error of five percent. concent.
“In these difficult times of coronavirus, the good news is that the country will receive general rains from June to September. This will help our agricultural sector and increase crop yields. This will definitely contribute to the economic expansion of the country. ” Mr. Rajeevan. Secretary of Array, Minister of Earth Sciences.
The IMD defines “average” or “average” precipitation as between 96 percent and 104 percent, and the LPA for seasonal precipitation nationwide for the 1961-2010 era is 88 centimeters.
From June to September, the country receives 75% of its rainfall from the southwest monsoon. This not only benefits the country’s agriculture, but also the recharge of reservoirs and, above all, the economy, which is still heavily dependent on agriculture.
The northeast monsoon is a phenomenon that brings rain to Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, parts of Kerala and Andhra Pradesh from October to December.
Starting this year, the IMD also revised the monsoon onset and withdrawal dates for various regions of the country based on data from 1960 to 2019. The earlier dates were based on data from 1901 to 1940.
However, the monsoon start date in Kerala, June 1, has not changed, Rajeevan said.
In states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of Uttar Pradesh, the monsoon will be delayed by 3-7 days from the existing dates.
For the national capital, the new start date of monsoon has been revised from June 23 to June 27, a delay of 4 days. Similarly, the dates have been revised for Mumbai and Kolkata to June 10-11, and for Chennai to June 1-4.
However, in the far northwest of India, the monsoon will arrive a little earlier, on July 8, compared to the current date of July 15. The new date for the withdrawal of the South India monsoon is October 15.
The IMD, the country’s meteorologist, attributed the forecast of a widespread monsoon to an independent atmospheric change of “El Niño” and a possible “La Niña” during the second part of the four-month rainy season, from June to September.
Forecast models recommend that there is a 41% chance of the season seeing overall rainfall and a nine% chance of a deficient monsoon.
Last year, India had “above normal” rainfall.
“Neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) situations will trump the Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) situations will trump the Indian Ocean. Some climate predictions imply that those situations are more likely persist during the resulting monsoon season.
“However, some other global climate models imply the possibility of weak La Niña conditions progressing over the Pacific Ocean in the second part of the season,” Rajeevan said.
As sea surface temperature (SST) situations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on the Indian monsoon, the IMD is tracking the changing sea surface situation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, Mohapatra said.
El Niño is linked to the warming of the waters of the central Pacific Ocean. La Niña is connected to the cooling of the waters of the central Pacific. The IOD and negative are related to the cooling or warming of the waters of the Indian Ocean, respectively.
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