Such lockdown, the total number of projected instances would have been 204 lakh as of February 2021
The committee said 30% of the Indian population has developed antibodies opposed to the virus to date.
Aditi Tandon
Tribune Press Service
New Delhi, 18 October
On Sunday, senior government scientists said India could be the COVID-19 pandemic until early 2021 if everyone followed security protocols and the total number of cases projected up to next February would be 106 lakh.
India has 74. 94 lakh to date.
Led by Professor M Vidyasagar of IIT-Hyderabad, the Indian National Committee of COVID-19 Models of the Indian Passing Government, said today that the pandemic had peaked, but warned against the laxity of the festival season by saying: “We can pass up to 26 lakh of active infections. in October if the precautions of masks, physical distance and hand and face hygiene were not taken. “The current active instances are less than 8 lakh.
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The committee said that 30% of the Indian population has developed antibodies opposed to the virus to date, compared to 14% at the end of August, and that the growing number of people inflamed was an explanation for why new cases were falling. The insect test concluded that 14% of other people had probably developed antibodies by the end of August compared to 7% projected through ICMR.
Professor Vidyasagar said the group’s mandate included the effectiveness of the national closure.
“Projections show that without the blockade, active symptomatic cases would have peaked in June with 140 lakhs overwhelming our hospitals; the total number of symptomatic cases would have reached 204 lakh in February 2021 to 106 recently estimated lakh and the deaths would have exceeded 26 lakh in the end of August to 1. 1 lakh in October,” said Professor Vidyasagar, who led the team that included an investigator. Gagandeep Kang.
The study also concludes that India’s closure was the most productive time and that staff migration in May and June did not cause a strong accumulation of cases. Scientists say migration would have caused more harm if it had been allowed before closing. .
“There would have been a significant negative effect on whether migration had been allowed before the lockdown rather than after the lockdown,” said the largest mathematical projection of COVID 19 in India.
In the future, the panel said the locks were no longer desirable and would produce better results.
“If no protective measures are taken, we are making plans for 26 active lakh maximum instances in October; with less caution, we are projecting thirteen active instances of lakh in October. Stricter measures, such as state closures, won’t be much and we present highly localized lock cases if necessary,” Professor Vidyasagar said.
The style said Kerala has noticed an increase in Onam’s festivities and warned others to oppose meetings for the existing holiday season.
“Kerala celebrated Onam on August 22 and September 2 and saw a sharp increase until September 8. The likelihood of infection in Kerala increased by 32% and the effectiveness of the medical reaction decreased by 22% in September,” the model revealed. The message is clear: the festival and the upcoming winter season can lead to vulnerability to infections if security protocols are not strictly followed.
Block projections through scientists
The closure led to an increase in active cases of 10 lakh in September and a dead lakh.
Projection if there is no blockade: 140 lakh of acute active symptomatic cases until June and 26 lakh of deaths until the end of August
The screening of blockage from April 1 to May 1: 40 to 50 L of active maximum instances in June, 7 to 10 L deaths at the end of August
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