As we progress through the summer season, tropical oceans are on fire with cyclonic activity. Currently, the Joint Typhoon Alert Center (JTWC) is tracking Tropical Cyclone 01A. He issued a warning about the typhoon as he heads to India and Pakistan. , there is very little precedent for a hurricane-force cyclone hitting Pakistan. We’ll be watching this carefully to see if any other tropical cyclone records are set this weekend or early next week.
My colleague Bill Read, former director of the National Hurricane Center, posted a public message on his Facebook page Friday morning saying that he might not locate any recordings of a tropical cyclone with the force of a hurricane (winds> 74 mph) reach pakistan in knowledge dating back to 1877. Of course, that doesn’t mean it didn’t happen, it’s just not in the record books. According to JTWC, the typhoon is expected to increase as it moves parallel to India’s west coast in the coming days. The graph below suggests that typhoon may make landfall in western India or even Pakistan.
If it has not paid attention, this region is also plagued by the COVID-19 pandemic, so the timing could not be worse for a record tropical cyclone. The 2020 cyclone season in the northern Indian Ocean was probably the worst recorded, mainly due to destruction related to Cyclone Amphan. The typhoon is estimated to have exceeded $13. 2 billion in damage costs. The greatest cyclonic activity in this basin occurs between May and October, so this typhoon unfortunately arrives on time.
Steve Bowen is a meteorologist and director of Catastrophe Insight at Aon. Like Bill Read, he said there are not many precedents in official hurricane-equivalent cyclone records heading towards the North Arabian Sea. He told me in a message: “Although in the long term CY Tauktae in western India and the Pakistani coast generates serious wind-like fears, perhaps the greatest fear will come from the water.
This region is already particularly vulnerable to climate-related threats. Indeed, the Global Climate Risk Index places Pakistan fifth on its list of countries most vulnerable to climate change. Experts recommend that the geographical location of countries account for most of this. Bowen went on to say, “Typhoon’s tide is the apparent threat along the coast given the local bathymetry, however, flooding/landslides inland will be a serious threat in spaces that have traditionally faced serious excessive rain disorders. “Bowen tried to offer a positive attitude in a potentially terrible scenario by noting that there had been a dramatic improvement in pre-event alert and pre-trial evacuation projects through government officials in this component of the world, which specifically reduced the number of human casualties compared to what we have noticed in recent decades.
Unfortunately, Covid-19’s mix of cyclones and hazards is a reminder of what many places are facing in this tropical season. Weather Company, an IBM company, recently raised its named storm projection in the Atlantic Basin to 19, 8 of which have become hurricanes (four of which may exceed category 3 or higher). The number of vaccines is slowly improving, but the pandemic continues. What will vaccination rates be like with cyclonic activity worldwide?Unfortunately, we’re about to notice this season.
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, a leading foreign expert in meteorology and climate, president of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in 2013 and director of the
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, a leading foreign expert in meteorology and meteorology, was president of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) in 2013 and director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at the University of Georgia (UGA). Dr. Shepherd is Professor Emeritus for the Georgia Athletic Association and hosts The Weather Channel’s Weather Geeks podcast, which can be found at any podcast outlet. Prior to UGA, Dr. Shepherd spent 12 years as a study meteorologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and was a Project Associate Scientist for the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. In 2004, he was honored in the White House with a prestigious PECASE award. He has also earned top honors from the American Meteorological Society, the American Association of Geographers, and the Captain Planet Foundation. Shepherd is sought after as a weather and climate expert through the mainstream media, the White House, and Congress. He has over 80 peer-reviewed scholarly publications and quite a few editorials. Dr. Shepherd earned his B. S. , M. S. and Ph. D. in physical meteorology from Florida State University.