Advertising
Supported by
Despite assurances that the scenario is under control, data on infections have become more opaque now that Beijing has lifted pandemic restrictions.
Send a story to any friend.
As a subscriber, you have 10 gift pieces to offer per month. Everyone can read what you share.
By Daisuke Wakabayashi and Claire Fu
Since China radically changed course and softened its zero-tolerance technique for covid last week, Beijing has gone to great lengths to convince the public that it can triumph over the potential dangers of lifting restrictions and getting the world’s second-largest economy back to normal.
His once-gloomy forecasts are downright optimistic: Covid-19 is entering the “final stage” and will soon be a manageable seasonal disease, one of China’s leading coronavirus voices said. The spread of the virus will peak in a month, some other major predicted by a Chinese epidemiologist. A prominent state TV presenter said “we are on track” to ending the crisis, with the latest covid variants less harmful and officials saying the country’s medical preparedness will protect against the most catastrophic effects.
Despite those assurances, China faces many uncertainties about how the coming months will unfold. The data is opaque and unreliable, making it difficult to assess Beijing’s handling of the next wave of covid infections. Pandemic political feature will blur the picture.
There are already signs that China is employing propaganda for its message that the scenario is under control. And in the absence of a reliable flow of information, corporations and investors from abroad will have to speculate on how long it will take. for the economy to recover.
Even the maximum basis of the number of other people inflamed with Covid in China at the moment is difficult to answer, as the government has facilitated mass verification needs and made the release of verification effects voluntary at home.
China on Tuesday reported 2291 new cases shown, a fraction of the roughly 30,000 new infections consistent with the day the country reported before lifting the mass testing requirement. the vast majority of positive effects in the past.
The decline in reported infections contradicts anecdotal evidence of a growing number of positive cases and hospitals overcrowded with others awaiting treatment. necessary” on official social media. ” The statistics don’t make sense,” said Jörg Wuttke, president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.
Some of China’s knowledge pushes the barriers of explaining why for a country with a population of 1. 4 billion. China said there has been one Covid-related single death since it lifted pandemic restrictions six days ago. By comparison, the U. S. The U. S. Department of Health reported 469 Covid-related deaths on Tuesday alone.
Since the early months of the pandemic, virologists have raised questions about China’s official mortality figures, wondering how the country’s hospitals rank covid deaths. Instead of adding other people who died after contracting covid-19 in official data, as is the norm in other countries. , Chinese hospitals have deaths from pre-existing or chronic conditions, such as cancer or diseases of the center, they said.
Underreporting of Covid cases is not unique to China, but the country is opaque. When reporting “severe” episodes of Covid, the government only reveals the evolution of the number of cases up to the previous day, without reporting an overall figure. China said it had 3 more severe cases on Tuesday than on Monday.
The lack of reliable information on covid cases also makes it difficult to assess how long it will take for the economy to recover. exports, a reliable pillar of the global economy.
As a component of China’s unfettered Covid policy, the constant risk of unpredictable closures and quarantines has also prevented shoppers from visiting stores, tied travelers to their homes, and discouraged diners from dining out for 3 years. To faint freely, there is still a lot of apprehension about what lies ahead.
Zheng Jingrong, who owns a shop that sells imported homemade garments in Beijing, said she had still bothered to reopen her store because there were no customers yet.
“My feeling now is that everyone is afraid to test positive and those who are shy dare not faint,” he said. other people and small businesses, Zheng said, adding that “nothing is certain right now. “
Ting Lu, China’s leading economist at Nomura, a Japanese brokerage firm, said he is not “too optimistic” about a strong recovery of the Chinese economy as he expects continued disruptions in a defeated fitness formula and a surge in infections. He added that the pent-up call in the economy was expected to be “relatively weak” next year after 3 years of lockdown drained the finances of many Chinese households.
Part of the uncertainty hanging over how China will emerge from “zero covid” is that no country of this length has pivoted so quickly and so drastically, probably moving overnight from an all-out attack on covid to learning how to deal with the virus. The established rules are replaced day by day.
As of last week, asymptomatic or mild cases no longer require hospitalization. All restrictions on buying flu and pain medications were also lifted, leading to a flood of fever pills and even some classic Chinese medicines. On Tuesday, China also disabled a tracking app, one of several smartphone apps the government used to monitor the whereabouts of Chinese citizens to assess their Covid risk.
Two months ago, before crowds of people took to the streets to protest the government’s draconian covid-related policies, Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, said covid posed such a serious threat to public health that fighting the virus required an “all-out war. “”.
“It’s amazing how in two weeks the total formula has evaporated,” M said. Wuttke. ” What does it do to the business? I don’t know. “
Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said that when Australia and New Zealand abandoned their zero covid ambitions last year, they would do so with good fortune because they had put in place “effective vaccination programs with effective vaccines”.
However, in the case of China, any of these points are questioned. In China, about two-thirds of others over 60 and only 40% of others over 80 have gained a booster shot. The World Health Organization said boosters are when it comes to Chinese vaccines, which use an inactivated virus and prove less effective than foreign opportunities using newer mRNA technology.
On Wednesday, China’s fitness regulator announced it will launch a momentary vaccine booster for high-risk equipment and others over 60.
Without widespread policy and a highly effective vaccine, there is “the very big public health problem,” he said. Woolhouse.
For Zhu Yan, owner of an inn on the shores of Qionghai Lake, a tourist destination in Sichuan province, covid restrictions hurt his business. He said there are still no visitors because other people are afraid of contracting the virus. Taking some time for the economy and his business to recover, he said he has at least regained hope.
Zhu, 40, said he hopes China can achieve herd immunity so life can return to normal. In fact, he hopes to test positive soon, as he believes it is better to detect covid in time.
“It’s locking everyone up at home and locking them up forever, right?” said Ms. Brown. Zhu said. What deserves to happen will happen, you cannot escape. You will have to take this path, and everyone will have to take this step, so that China can continue with its paintings and its life in general. “
John Liu contributed to the report.
Advertising