AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis (TB), three of the deadliest infectious diseases, combined kill 2.4 million people a year, and tuberculosis is solely responsible for 1.5 million deaths. And deaths from these diseases could almost double next year, according to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, a donor consortium budgeting for treatment. The reason: coronavirus. This is a terrible prospect and requires an urgent action plan.
More than 3 months of blockade have prevented many other people from accessing the remedy for non-COVID infectious diseases; at the same time, no new cases of these diseases will have been detected. Although the blockades are d smaller, physical care will take some time to return to normal, as the government continues to prioritize COVID-19. Overall, this results in an accumulation in some cases.
That is why a radical replacement in investment is desired for the prevention, treatment and research of AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis, and a greater public awareness of the growing risk of infectious diseases. And researchers, especially epidemiologists, will need to continue to refine the models that alert the world to this coming catastrophe.
Approximately 10 million people a year are inflamed by tuberculosis and most cases occur in Asia and Africa. Eight countries (India, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa) account for two-thirds of infections.
One model, developed through researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, predicts that there will be about 200,000 more TB deaths in China, India and South Africa between 2020 and 20241. A different model, through Philippe Glaziou of World Health The Organization’s The PEER-reviewed TB program, predicts another 190,000 deaths from international tuberculosis by 20202.
Equally worrying are knowledge about AIDS and malaria. In 2018, nearly a million people in sub-Saharan Africa died from AIDS-related diseases. If antiretroviral processing is discontinued for as little as six months, this number is expected to double next year, according to WHO and the unprecedented model of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) published in May, an unprecedented record. more than a decade.
A study by researchers from Nigeria’s National Malaria Programme in Abuja and Imperial College London, published in Nature Medicine, predicts that 77n out 000 more people are at risk of dying of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa by 2020, more than double the number until 201nine3. WHO researchers have come to a similar estimate. They modeled the effect of COVID-1nine on malaria in 41 countries in nine situations. In the worst case, a continued suspension of insecticide-treated bed distribution campaigns and a 75% drop in access to antimalarials, 76,900 malaria deaths would occur in sub-Saharan Africa this year, a point of death not noticed in 20 years. .
More worryingly, this knowledge is not the last word, since the models do not take into account what will happen if the locks reappear or want to expand. And knowledge will want to be revisited once the effects of coronavirus on TB screening and remedies are known more, as well as the effects of coronavirus and tuberculosis infection at the same time, known as co-infection. Coronavirus is now wreaked havoc in countries such as India, Russia and Brazil, which have a heavy burden of tuberculosis.
“I’m incredibly involved in the damage being worse than the models predict,” says Madhukar Pai, who runs McGill’s International Tb Center in Montreal, Canada. In addition to this, COVID-19 has created delays in non-COVID-19 studies and in the recruitment of drug trials. “We want a damage plan,” Pai says. He’s right.
Right now, with the total number of COVID-19 infections reaching 20 million and deaths reaching more than 700,000, we say how much the pandemic will worsen. But we can say that without intervention, tuberculosis, AIDS and malaria are likely to cause more casualties.
There are a number of things that want to happen now. First, hospitals and the fitness government in affected cities and regions will need to recognize that AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis have increased again. In the case of tuberculosis, case detection, which has been affected by the diversion of hospital screening services for COVID-19, will need to resume quickly. You can imagine a percentage of the verification services for any of the diseases. Some hospitals in the Asia-Pacific region use the same device to perform COVID-19 morning checks and tuberculosis controls in the afternoon, or vice versa. It is also possible to coordinate COVID-19 control with immediate diagnostic controls for HIV and malaria.
Second, researchers want to continue to refine their models with more real-world data. If Pai is right, that instances and deaths will be higher than expected by the models, then the models will want to improve.
Third, data campaigns are searched. Public, personal and non-governmental organizations want to alert others to the dangers of emerging degrees of infectious diseases. These campaigns will also help reassure existing patients, as well as those who are not feeling well, that they seek, or continue, treatment.
Fourth, these campaigns alone cannot keep surgeries and rooms open, or the operation of the equipment. The resurgence of infectious diseases has created an increased demand for evidence, remedies and research. Everyone wants more funds. In a June report, the Global Fund estimated that an additional US$28.5 billion was needed to ensure that HIV, TUBERCULOSis and malaria programmes simply continue to function and that researchers can continue to expand non-unusual diagnostic equipment, i.e. for tuberculosis and COVID. -19. And that’s just for the next 12 months.
The Global Fund is convinced that it can get $6 billion of this amount, in addition to its annual expenses, but it cannot raise the rest on its own. Some of the fund’s largest foreign donors, such as the UK, are cutting investment for clinical aid, while prioritizing COVID-19 studies and progression.
While the same old fundraising channels seem unlikely, approaches to choice, such as public events inviting governments, businesses, and philanthropic organizations to make pledges of funding, should be tested. Governments in richer countries donate for such occasions, as noted in May, when a live COVID-19 donor convention organized across the European Union won 6.15 billion euros ($7.2 billion) in promises.
COVID-19 dates back years, if not decades, to the fight against infectious diseases. Of course, it is imperative that every measure imaginable be taken to protect others from coronavirus and treat those who have become ill. But saving other people from an infectious disease and dying for another is the last thing you want.
Nature 584 and 169 (2020)
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