Vladimir Putin to his counterpart and best friend, Alexander Lukashenko, in Minsk on Monday, raised fears that Belarus could become more involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But what difference would the strength of the Belarusian army make on the battlefield if it intervened, and could tip the balance in favor of Russian troops?
Former British army officer Frank Ledwidge believes Putin is unlikely to seek direct involvement of Belarusian troops in Ukraine. he told Newsweek.
“Belarus has very limited normal forces. If Russian losses are taken into account, even in the last 3 months, it will probably exceed the overall strength of the Belarusian army,” he said. “So even if other points are not taken into account, they would possibly not be significant. “
“Belarus is a small country with a population of 9. 44 million. Their armed forces are small, especially considering the active staff, which amounts to 45,000,” Marina Miron of King’s College London’s Department of Defence Studies told Newsweek.
“Perhaps unexpected for Belarus is the number of army reservists, namely 290,000. Belarus also has compulsory military service for young people aged 18 to 27. The duration of compulsory military service can be up to 18 months, depending on the educational qualification.
“However, keep in mind that Belarus does not have any fashionable military equipment, as it has old Soviet prototypes. Overall, this is not a country that can be described as a wonderful military power,” he continued.
“If we recall, Russia’s partial mobilization amounted to about 300,000 people, which is more than six times the number of the active body of workers of Belarus. “
On the other hand, Belarusian troops, limited in number, can easily be incorporated into a Russian formation, Ledwidge said, a move that would “produce some capability. “
For what Putin could be, and what is a far more vital asset for the Belarusian military, are the country’s curtain reserves “and, to a lesser extent, the air force,” Ledwidge said.
“There are several hundred tanks, about 500 tanks in the garage and many artillery pieces that can potentially be leased to Russia,” Ledwidge said. “These are trendy tanks, dating back to the 1980s and 1990s. But they have some use. “
In addition to this, the Belarusian Air Force has “two squadrons of B-29s and some attack aircraft, which complement the Russians very well,” the former army officer said.
Despite the close, if reluctant, alliance between Lukashenko and Putin, which has allowed the Belarusian leader to maintain control of the force for 28 years after mass protests in August 2020 in opposition to his victory in the disputed elections, the majority of the population strongly opposes Moscow’s decision. Moscow ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
That alone, Ledwidge said, would discourage Lukashenko from commanding his troops on the battlefield in Ukraine.
“All war is political. The real limitation to the deployment of the Belarusian armed forces is their relative lack of strength,” Ledwidge said.
“I think most commentators would say that, in the context of the 2020-2021 protests in Belarus, the direct involvement of Belarusian forces in the war would be almost suicidal for the regime, because the vast majority of people would not. such close ties with Ukraine, to begin with. “
Lukashenko announced on Dec. 13 that his army was assessing its readiness for the fight, but army experts, adding the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, are “unlikely” that Belarusian troops will be sent to Ukraine.
“Belarusian forces remain incredibly capable of invading Ukraine without a Russian strike force,” ISW wrote in a Dec. 16 report.
“It is transparent that Lukashenko would dedicate Belarusian forces to combat in Ukraine, including together with Russian troops. There is still no indication that Russian forces are forming a strike force in Belarus. “
Belarus, under the leadership of strongman Lukashenko, first provided a launching pad for the large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, allowing Russian troops to succeed in Kyiv through the fastest direction across its southern border.
Ukraine has warned that something similar could happen soon. Kiev fears that Minsk will allow Moscow’s troops to prepare a new offensive on the Ukrainian capital from its territory, attacking from Ukraine’s northern border.
“If Belarus were to join, the most it could bring is a ‘launching pad’ to carry out offensive operations,” Miron said.
“It is credible that the Belarusian army’s workers’ corps is not sufficiently equipped, experienced and motivated to participate in the conflict. For Russia, Belarus provides an opportunity to station and exercise its troops and solve logistical problems. Therefore, Belarus’ dependence on Russia and its geographical location makes it an allied cornea. “
Ledwidge believes a situation is likely, or at least that’s what Moscow needs Kyiv to believe. forces in the north,” he said.
“It is that the Ukrainians have to deploy a large number of troops to deter or in case of emergency oppose a Belarusian attack from the north. “
Ukrainian troops are expected to refocus their troops on the northern border to block a Russian attack from Belarus, diverting them from active fronts in the east and south of the country.
Although Belarus would not make a contribution with its combat capability, allowing Russian troops to attack Kyiv from its internal border would be an important demonstration for Moscow and another major concession to Putin.
“Taking drastic measures such as launching a mobilization and, in all likelihood, deploying troops in Ukraine would create a threat to the Lukashenko regime,” Miron said.
“Therefore, many points would possibly imply a participation that deserves not to be completely ruled out, it can be done to create uncertainty in the minds of the leaders of the Ukrainian army regarding the location of the main offensive and to divert the attention of Ukrainians from Donbass. . “
ISW wrote that “a Russian invasion of northern Ukraine from Belarus is not very likely to be imminent” and remains “probably unlikely” for now, there are signs that Moscow could be preparing such a counteroffensive.
The two leaders, Putin and Lukashenko, were quite confusing about the issues discussed at their assembly on Monday. According to Putin, the two talked about the formation of a “unified defense space,” as well as the education of the crews of Belarusian warplanes that have already been modified to make them nuclear-capable.
The Russian president said the latter is a proposal by Lukashenko, which he supported.
According to ISW, Lukashenko showed that Russia has “given” Belarus an undetermined number of S-400 air defense systems that will most likely be operated through Russian forces in Belarus.
“Most likely, Lukashenko is delaying access to Putin’s broader demands, such as the commitment of Belarusian forces to join the opposite invasion of Ukraine, by making smaller concessions that he has blocked for years,” ISW wrote in a Dec. 20 report. .
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