Analysis: Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s authoritarianism and incompetence ended the family’s political rule
For weeks, protesters in Sri Lanka chanted “Gota home. “Now it turns out that Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the president, is looking for one. Their first hurdle, Maldives, came last night. The United Arab Emirates may be the final destination.
The fall of Rajapaksa’s circle of relatives was spectacular. It resonated in the region and beyond. Sri Lanka’s leader has been a high-profile victim of the global life-rate crisis, analysts said. In distant South Africa, a TV presenter asked whether the growing burden of living there could be enough to sound the death sentence for the ruling party. Others ask the same question.
But the case of Sri Lanka, an exceptional position in each and every sense, is not easily transferable, there are lessons to be learned for any leader or protester.
The story begins with Rajapaksa’s brother, Mahinda, who gained strength in 2005 projecting himself as an undeniable type of southern rural state opposed to the metropolitan and westernized political elite of Colombo, the capital. It wasn’t as popular as it said, however, it didn’t matter. He also vowed an end to the decades-long bloody civil war against a faction of Tamil separatists in northern Sri Lanka.
This was duly and brutally delivered. The Rajapaksas sought to channel and accentuate the wave resulting from Sri Lanka’s Sinhalese majority. A wave of chauvinism was one of the consequences. Another was the sense of empowerment that led the Rajapaksas to spend massive sums borrowed on massive infrastructure projects of dubious value. A momentary victory for Mahinda came in 2010.
In 2019, it was Gotabaya who regained strength for the family, defeating a divided coalition government and reeling by providing strong technocratic leadership to the electorate. This seduced a new electorate: still Sinhalese and nationalists but educated, urban, Westernized, tech-savvy. The appeal of Gotabaya reinforced through the attacks by Islamist extremists on Easter Sunday of that year.
What no one expected was the utter incompetence of his increasingly autocratic regime. Taxes were cut, interest rates were cut, huge new loans were applied for, cash was published, all at precisely the wrong time. Covid has led to a collapse in tourism and remittances, two primary foreign exchange resources. A resolution to make agriculture in Sri Lanka completely organic, largely an effort to cover up the inability to fertilize, has brought down the entire sector. Soon, Sri Lanka was in the midst of an economic crisis. surrender to.
“Gotabaya is a very poor politician. He surrounded himself with charlatans. . . he just shouted orders to the people. He couldn’t charm anyone, make deals or replace course in time,” said Alan Keenan, senior Sri Lanka representative at the International Crisis Group. .
Allegations of systematic corruption have made massive increases in value, forced cuts and drug shortages infuriating. With the country’s president, prime minister, finance minister, and dozens of senior officials, all from the same family, there may be only one direction to point the finger at guilt.
It would possibly not be a revolution – Sri Lanka has a long and established culture of democracy, it has been put to the test in recent years – however, it is a great shock. The probability that the circle of relatives will forcibly return is unlikely, at least for many years.
“The Rajapaksa logo has been looted for a long time, if not forever,” Keenan said. Another piece of smart news is that the protest movement has bridged the gap between communities and categories in Sri Lanka in a way that few people have noticed in decades. Optimists see the option that a new vision and national spirit will take root.
Others worry that years of mainstream rhetoric have had an effect. Mahinda and Gotabaya exploited the resurgence of Sinhala nationalism in other ways. A new method can be just as effective. It is clear to all that there is no political or economic miracle solution for a country with many problems.
“There is power in the streets, but it will be difficult to move from that to putting Sri Lanka on the genuine path to recovery,” said Charu Lata Hogg of Chatham House.
Other leaders in South Asia and beyond followed a playbook to that of the Rajapaksas. With economies under great pressure everywhere, many will look forward.
On the one hand, the poisonous cocktail of the Rajapaksa has earned the circle of relatives only about 15 years of strength and what would be an immense wealth. On the other hand, Gotabaya eventually ordered the Sri Lankan Air Force to remove him from the country because civilian immigration officials allegedly tried to save him from escaping. Being trapped while protesters plunge into the presidential pool and there is no fuel for limousines is an authoritarian nationalist nightmare. Lately some very cynical calculations are being made in the corridors of force in the capitals of much of the emerging world.