We have noticed COVID-19 as a wildfire in some bars, churches and other public gathering places.
Now that many are reopening, the parents are holding their breath.
Experts tell Healthline that schools, especially those in states where instances are on the rise, can be the ideal setting for what’s called a mass circulation event.
“By some estimates, in a school of 1000 students, between 10 and 15 students may appear on the first day they are contagious and that is quite representative of a typical high school,” said Dr. Marybeth Sexton, a former public school. professor who is now an assistant professor of medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at Emory University in Georgia.
“If you don’t have masking and estrangement regulations, and those other people infect two or three other people, then they infect two or three other people, and infect two or three other people, very temporarily you’ll have a scenario where you’ll have to close a school,” Sexton told Healthline.
As academics in Georgia, Florida, and other states embark on a dubious school year, Healthline asked experts where mass occasions usually occur, when will it be transparent whether schools have succeeded or failed in their reapture efforts, and how schools are more likely to do so. super-stations.
One of the first examples of a mass-circulation occasion took place in a choral practice in March in Skagit County, Washington, where another 52 people developed COVID-19: 3 choir members were hospitalized and two died.
The list of examples is long and of camps and schools for children.
In fact, more than 97,000 young people tested positive for COVID-19 in the last 2 weeks of July, according to the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association.
In addition, the number of young people diagnosed with COVID-19 in Florida has more than doubled in the last month.
” (The school) is an interior decoration. It’s a domain where many other people come together, where there are screams, screams and close contacts,” said Maureen Miller, PhD, an infectious disease epidemiologist and associate professor at the Mailman School of Public Health in Columbia, New York. “These are precisely the situations that we have necessarily closed for the rest of the country: political conventions, casinos, offices. It’s the same scenario, but with kids.”
Sexton explained that widespread occasions in places like restaurants or churches tend to have some points in common.
“(Yes) you’re unlucky enough to have someone contagious, and then you have a lot of other people in a small area that’s rarely very well ventilated and has no mask,” he says. “Then you can get a whole elegance if you look at it in a school.”
An exponential spread through the framework of a student and college can occur when other people who come to school are already inflamed due to its spread in the community.
If the security measures are not in place, “you have the possibility of having a mass market event, where an overwhelming majority of other people are infected,” Sexton said.
“It’s a huge pleasure for us to threaten our children to see what happens,” Miller added.
In fact, some schools that opened this month closed again.
Last week, a viral photo was posted in Paulding County, Georgia, where students huddled in the hallways between classes were noticed.
Over the weekend, the school announced it would close for two days after nine others tested positive for the virus.
In addition, 260 workers in Georgia’s largest school district tested positive for the virus or were exposed after a day of face-to-face planning.
In New Jersey, a summer preschool program closed after two workers tested positive.
Even as those stories fill the news cycle, the governor of New York announced that schools would open there for the 2020 school year, and mentioned how the region is “well below our COVID infection limit.”
It’s a resolution that leads everyone to how the big city will fare.
“New York is really pretty low. Its positivity rate is quite low, one of the lowest in the country right now,” Miller said. “I wouldn’t do a full reopening of a school, definitely a combined model, virtual learning and others in person. But with all these caveats, it’s staggered, there’s a social estrangement, and once you look at a construction, you have to (close). “
The details are to assess whether a school will succeed or fail in its reopening efforts.
Experts reaffirm that dressed in masks, physical distance and cutting elegance can help.
“Details matter,” Dr. Michael S. Saag, a professor of medicine at the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, told Healthline. “If schools open like the school in Paulding County, Georgia, it might not happen well. Careful plans are required with attention to detail.”
Saag said that at least all students, teachers and staff wear a mask at all times at school, with the exception of the cafeteria, which preferably incorporates food outside.
“Keep a distance in the classroom and hallways, and make sure everyone who feels bad stays at home. Ideally, there should be sentinel evidence, but that’s not possible,” he added.
Miller hopes schools will eventually have immediate testing, which will help find cases more frequently.
It also approves staggered school attendance models, where capacity is reduced and learning is distributed on certain days.
Miller believes ventilation is a challenge schools want to address.
“Open the windows, open the doors, take out the categories outside. I think those are all the things that can help,” Miller said. “There are high-level CVC ventilation systems that remove viruses from the air, and most school districts in the U.S. They don’t have this state-of-the-art (system) and it’s not even discussed.”
Sexton agreed that the development of complex plans is for schools when they reopen.
“The places that have the most time to do it want to take advantage of it. Perceive how to avoid those conditions where there are a few hundred young people huddled in a hallway,” he said. “Make sure you have plans. Are we going to replace the classes? How are we going to replace the classes? How can we do this safely?”
“I think the question of whether masks are needed in construction is a very vital factor for a school that you want to make a resolution about,” Sexton said, “and from the point of view of infection control, the answer is yes, absolutely.
The place where a school is located also makes a difference.
“It’s based on what propagation does on the network at the same time,” Sexton explained.
If the instances are booming in a school district, this will have an effect on the number of other people in construction on the first day of classes that poses a risk.
“If you had a student who showed up on the first day and had a COVID, you end up seeing it spread in your student frame and in some faculty members, however, it may take weeks to be visual that this happened, because if we assume that somewhere between 25%, perhaps up to 50%, Array in the healthy young population has no symptoms or has very mild symptoms ” Sexton said.
States with a higher number of cases, such as Texas, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, California, and Arizona, may face battles when reopening schools.
“Most of the southeastern United States and the Sun Belt in the Midwest decline are in this category of seeing a large expanse of the network and having the possibility of many infections in construction on the first day,” Sexton said. “I think in a few weeks you can see if you’ve created a genuine challenge as a result.”
Saag said that if he were a school principal in his home state of Alabama, he would postpone reopening schools and take a look at what’s happening in places like Georgia that have to open.
“Based on my understanding of the virus, its peak of contagion, and the difficulty of implementing even the most productive plans, we will likely see epidemics in schools within 3 to four weeks of reopening, even earlier,” he said.
Miller advised Harvard’s COVID Risk Level Map to assess the threat point in his area.
“Harvard has a perfect site that brings it back to the county point and analyzes the number of new instances in 100,000 and mobile devices are also averaged,” she says.
Experts told Healthline that if schools reopened students without careful precautions, they would be the scene of mass-circulation events.
“In schools that don’t plan well, expect super spreaders to be commonplace,” Saag said. “The challenge is for the elderly, adding teachers, parents and grandparents. It is not known how many viruses will be “brought home”, but I suspect this will happen frequently, reviving the network expansion as we did in July. »
The prospect of the spread of occasions in young people was shown this summer, Miller said, pointing to an outbreak at a summer camp in Georgia, where many other people were infected.
“It was outdoors and more than two hundred young people became infected. It’s an approximation of the school environment, only it’s outdoors,” he says. “They didn’t wear a mask. Not everyone was asked to wear a mask. There’s a lot of aversion to mask in this country.”
Sexton reiterated that what happens in your domain will have an effect on the likelihood of a primary transmission at a school near you.
“It’s based on what’s going on in the background. That’s why there have been indications that in areas of very high dispersion, it would probably not be safe to open or possibly want to take vital protective precautions,” he said.
“While, unfortunately,” Sexton added, “the few remaining posts in the country that don’t see this kind of spread in the community, would possibly have a little more margin.”
Noting the outbreak among teachers in Gwinnett County, Georgia, Sexton said, “On the first day of work of teachers, another 260 people had COVID or high-risk exposure to COVID on the first day. These are not other people who have anything at school or at work These are other people who have done something in the community.
“Other places where the network is spreading, as we have done in Georgia, take note of this, which are going to have a genuine challenge on the first day, potentially,” he advised.
Areas that have yet to go back to school have an advantage.
“We know, in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut in early March and April, that if you put strict measures in place on the network, you will see a significant reduction in the number of cases, which can make schools significantly safer. . make the network safer, ” said Sexton.
It is not too long overdue for troubled school districts to start over or for schools that get categories after Labor Day to put the property in a better position for reopening.
“You have almost four weeks right now, it’s time to work hard to put those measures in position in the community,” Sexton said. “Because in 2 weeks, you may see a benefit and in four weeks you may see a genuine decrease.”
If other people in states that are heavily affected by COVID-19 right now can simply stay home, wear a mask when they are in public, remotely when they can’t stay home and avoid big meetings, Sexton said, the culmination of efforts would be to be a safer return to school.
“Festivals, family circle meetings, all the things everyone likes to do in the summer, they’re really not safe right now and they’re going to have an effect on our ability to get kids back to school.” she says.
It is sensible to take the time to create a forged reopening plan with safety measures for academics and faculty.
Alternatively, a school year that starts without brain security will end well, Saag said.
“It’s a giant delight and no one knows what’s going to happen even with planning. We know what happens when the school formula simply opens without any plan,” he said. “It’s going to be a disaster.”
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