It is possible that Iran will soon obtain from the Russian complex Su-35 Flanker-E multirole fighter jets and, in all likelihood, other military equipment, adding S-400 air defense missile systems. It remains to be seen to what extent such acquisitions can also be the balance of power in the Middle East.
A mock-up of a Su-35 recently photographed by outdoor satellite at the Eagle 44 underground airbase in southern Iran has a more fueled hypothesis that Iran hopes to get the plane as part of its largest fighter order in more than 30 years.
Iran will get at least 24 Flankers after supplying Russia with plenty of drones for its war against Ukraine. Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, defense ties between Moscow and Tehran have flourished. In December, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby warned that Russia was offering Iran “an unprecedented military and technical point that transforms its dating into a full-fledged defense partnership. “
That same month, he also commented on the delivery of the Su-35, saying, “These fighter jets will be particularly Iran’s air force compared to its regional neighbors. “
However, as previously reported here, only two dozen such aircraft would give Iran air superiority over the Persian Gulf, as only the Gulf Arab states possess many complex 4. 5-generation fighters built in the West.
However, statements in the Russian press recommend that Iranian Flankers can potentially give Tehran some benefits over the armies of neighboring states.
“This aircraft will be effective if Iran can install original weapons on it,” Mohammad-Hassan Sangtarash, an analyst with the Iranian military, told Russia’s Sputnik News in January.
“The Su-35 Super Flanker can play the role of a combat mini-AWACS (Airborne Control and Warning System), and if it connects to Iran’s radar network, it will get unique spot defense capabilities,” he said. “If Iran buys generation and launches joint mass production [of the Su-35], it can gain some merit over the fighters and warships of Iran’s neighboring countries. “
On the other hand, analysts have pointed to the many difficult situations ahead and the more likely limits of what Moscow would ultimately be willing or even could provide for Tehran.
“Iranian-Russian business is expected to expand with the spring,” Farzin Nadimi, a defense and security analyst and associate fellow at the Near East Policy Institute in Washington, told me.
“Ballistic and cruise missiles would be the first, but other spaces would also have to be considered,” he said. “Moreover, Iran would be a direction that China could use to channel its long-term military exports to Russia. “
Despite lifestyles of the style of the Su-35 to Eagle 44, Nadimi under pressure that “there is still no evidence that the Su-35 will arrive soon”, but anticipates an imaginable delivery.
As for the weaponry that the Iranian Flankers will carry, it foresees a Russian delivery of the R-77 air-to-air missile beyond visual diversity (the Russian AIM-120 AMRAAM) but is not sure that Moscow will supply Tehran. with the R-37 missile. It also predicts that Iran will need complex missiles for its Su-35s, such as the Kh-59 air-launched cruise missile.
As for the possibility of Iran arming those planes with indigenous weapons, as Sangtarashi suggested, Nadimi predicts that “Russia can give the source codes for the modifications later,” but “not with the original delivery. “
“Maybe a few years (after the handover), unless Iran gives anything Russia needs,” he said.
James Devine, an associate professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Mount Allison University, also anticipates technical disruptions similar to any Iranian acquisition of complex Russian systems.
“As for the regional implications for Iran’s arms purchases, the impact is uncertain,” he told me. Complex attack planes, the paintings they would have in Iran. However, there is reason to doubt its effectiveness. “
MOSCOW, RUSSIA – JUNE 25: The S-400 surface-to-air missile launcher is observed in ‘ARMY-2019Array. . [ ] International Technical and Military Forum” in Moscow, Russia, June 25, 2019. (Photo by Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
Devine noted that even a complex missile formula like the S-400 wishes to be part of a broader built-in air defense formula. It is unclear to what extent Iran might do so, though Devine noted that if the notorious Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 shooting in January 2020 is any indication, then “Tehran’s command and formula may have disruptions that compromise the effectiveness of the new formula. “
Similarly, the Su-35s will want to be incorporated into larger networks of radars and sensors, “and if Iranian systems are weak, the new planes won’t perform as well as the Iranians might expect. “
“At best, it will take time to integrate the new aircraft into the Iranian military, in terms of air defense systems and pilot training,” he said.
“It is also vital to note that those weapons, as a component of Iran’s military needs, will be used as defense systems,” he added. “Iran has other missiles for ground movements and will keep the S-400s in its airspace. “
He also added that the number of Su-35s, especially the first delivery of 24, “is enough to replace the balance of forces in the region. “
“Once again, they will be used to protect themselves and deter Israeli and American airstrikes,” he said.
Despite those limitations, Devine fears that the delivery of those weapons systems could spur a preemptive strike against Iran through the West.
“The only fear I would have is that the West could increase the timing of counterproliferation moves because it fears that operational Su-35s and S-400s will complicate their ability to strike Iranian targets and therefore that a window of opportunity is closing,” he said.