We’ve learned a lot more about the new coronavirus in recent months, adding the fact that maximum propagation opportunities occur indoors. Angelina Bambina / Shutterstock. com
It’s time for the COVID-19 wave. Cases are increasing in the maximum of European countries, Canada sees that the number of cases exceeds the first peak in April/May and the United States faces a forward-looking third wave.
Some countries such as Brazil, India and Argentina are still on the front wave, others like New Zealand, Vietnam and Singapore have contained the virus, but the wave has reached the northern hemisphere, ahead of next winter.
In the maximum number of countries, the number of deaths is lower than in the first wave; we have learned more about the virus and we know that by the time the wave passes through younger people, who have a lower mortality rate, however, the long-term effects of this wave are yet to be seen.
Mathematical models are used to waiting for the spread of diseases such as COVID-19, these models should now take into account adjustments in people’s behavior and winter technique.
Unknown long-term effects
There is evidence that COVID-19 infection can lead to serious problems in the center, which is being studied lately. Some other people also suffer injury to the kidneys, lungs, and brain. Sudden deafness and “brain fog” have also been reported.
We still don’t know if there is immunity after infection or if the disease will be endemic.
The wave at the moment was possibly due to the fatigue of confinement and the feeling of invincibility of the young population, but coping mechanisms such as denial and rationalism, combined with conflicting messages of public aptitude, can lead to the disobedience of the population and cause a gigantic number. case studies.
Superspreader Events
We learned vital aspects about the spread of COVID-19. The pandemic was largely due to widespread occasions when a single person directly infects contacts.
The number of reproductions – known as R0 – of SARS-CoV-2 is between two and 3, which on average, an individual infects between two and 3 Americans. Variation in distribution – known as k – has shown that some Americans generate a large number of secondary cases: less than 20% of Americans produce more than 80% of infections.
There have been examples of massive occasions such as the air conditioning-related outbreak at a dining venue in Guangzhou, China, Americans’ exposure to choir practice in Skagit County, Washington, the recent Rose Garden rite at the White House, and a tour. Hamilton, Ontario.
Aerosols
The disease is also known to be caused by aerosols, which are small traces of saliva or respiratory fluid a few microns in size. The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been in the process ofBut it’s not the first time They say the disease spreads mainly through close contact. Surfaces (called fomites) are not an unusual means of propagating COVID-19.
Since April, we have learned that aerosols and indoor transmission are the main resources of infection. There is evidence that the virus can remain in the air for 15 minutes to 3 hours and that indoor transmission may be about 20 times greater than outdoors.
Numerous studies show that transmission is due to indoor propagation through aerosols. A recent review of 1,200 outbreaks shows that, with the exception of two incidents, maximum outbreaks occurred indoors and were caused by outbreaks and circles of family contacts.
Pay for ventilation
To help decrease the likelihood of occasions spreading inside, we should pay attention to ventilation. Ideally, we do the most outdoor activities, but when that is not possible, air quality should be guaranteed.
Ventilation criteria such as ASHRAE and MERV-13 will be mandatory and, where not possible, portable air purifiers with HEPA filters can reduce the likelihood of infection.
We can also use carbon dioxide detectors to check indoor air quality and, as the insents approach, control the point of carbon dioxide and internal moisture increases the likelihood of contagion.
Simulate behaviors
My study team is running on flexible modeling methodologies than spatial models and they can be seamlessly adapted to get the latest study results.
We have built a variety of models to examine the facets of SARS-CoV-2 propagation, adding connectivity or mobility factors, mortality rates and interventions. We can examine the prospective results of complex government policies, such as the application of masking or physical estating.
We can also explore mechanisms for mixing fundamental epidemiological styles with data on the surrounding environment (buildings, transport, open spaces). The influence of spatial location on style dynamics can be seamlessly visualized to facilitate more effective decision-making.
Simulate environments
A momentary facet of our studies examines how to integrate complex models of three-dimensional structures with computer models of how the disease spreads inside. degrees of indoor moisture or the effects of viral particle accumulation on the parts, we can better quantify the threat of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of measures to mitigate the threat.
Our complex models use carbon dioxide as a disease indicator because sensors are reasonable and sensitive to CVC systems and room dimensions. These models can examine adjustments to ventilation, accumulation of viral waste over time, and the influence of tone-of-voice grades in a room.
These simulations can assess the threat of confined and crowded spaces, as well as close contacts.
Our next efforts come with stylizing the effects of long-term aspects and paying attention to individual interactions to examine the effects of blockades, the economy, and the uncertainty of human behavior. Advanced equipment is needed to design these social facets to identify disruptions and solutions. adding leadership, social environments, tension and coping behaviors should not be overlooked in long-term study efforts.
Gabriel Wainer, Professor of Systems and Computer Engineering, Carleton University
This article has been republished from The Conversation, a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Sign up for weekly scientific policy right in your inbox
This uses cookies
This online site uses cookies for the user experience. By using our online site, you accept all cookies in accordance with our cookie policy.