Nearly 10 months ago, on January 15, a traveler returned home to Seattle rule after visiting his family circle in Wuhan, China, a few days later he began to feel unwell and became the first case confirmed by coronavirus lab 2019. (COVID-19) in the United States, the rest is history.
However, new evidence published in the journal Science suggests that this first case of COVID-19 on the West Coast did not become a snowball in the existing epidemic, but that while Washington state public aptitude officials worked tirelessly and yet controlled to involve its sustained transmission, the new coronavirus slid through some other individual about two weeks later , in early February.
COVID-19 is caused through the new CORONAvirus SARS-CoV-2 Last winter, studies sequenced the genetic curtains for SARS-CoV-2 that moved away from the returning traveler from Seattle, although tactile studies do not identify any spread of this specific virus. virus, dubbed WA1, raised questions when a genetically similar virus known as WA2 gave the impression in Washington state. Soon after, WA2 viruses gave the impression in California; British Columbia, Canada; and despite everything 3,000 miles to Connecticut. In mid-March, this WA2 group accounted for the vast majority (85%) cases in Washington state.
But was it imaginable that the WA2 group was a direct descendant of WA1?Has WA1 caused a chain of transmission that went unnoticed for several weeks, making Seattle the epicenter of the American epidemic?
To answer these and other questions from around the world, Michael Worobey of the University of Arizona, Tucson, and his colleagues relied on multiple information resources, including knowledge of viral genomes, airline passengers, and the onset of the disease in China’s Hubei Province. and other places that probably influenced the likelihood that inflamed travelers would carry the virus around the world. Based on all the evidence, the researchers simulated the epidemic more than 1000 times on a computer over a two-month period, beginning on January 15 and assuming the outbreak began with WA1 and none of its simulated epidemics coincided with actual knowledge of the genome.
These effects recommend to researchers that IDEA WA1 is guilty that everything that happened next is incredibly unlikely. Evidence and simulations also seem to exclude the concept that first instances in Washington state entered the United States through Canada. knowledge recommends that a more likely situation is that the epidemic has been triggered by one or more introductions of genetically similar viruses from China to the West Coast. Although we still don’t know exactly where, the Seattle domain is the site with the highest probability given the large number of WA2 viruses sampled there.
Worobey’s team conducted a moment-by-moment investigation of the epidemic in Europe, and those simulations paint an image similar to that of the United States. Researchers conclude that the first known case of COVID-19 in Europe, which arrived in Germany on January 20, led to a this small early epidemic probably did not cause the last one in northern Italy , which eventually spread to the United States.
Its effects also show that the chain of transmission from China to Italy to New York triggered epidemics on the East Coast later in February than those that spread from China directly to Washington state, confirming that the Seattle epidemic was the first, before the others on the East Coast and in California.
The effects of this report are a reminder of the price of integrating genome surveillance with other knowledge resources to understand, track and involve the spread of COVID-19. They also show that immediate and decisive public aptitude measures to involve the virus worked when SARS-CoV -2 first entered the United States and Europe, and can now serve as participation models.
As the suffering and death of this pandemic continues in the United States, this historic reconstruction in early 2020 is another reminder that we all have the opportunity and duty to verify to restrict spread. home; Keep your physical distance Wash your hands frequently. and don’t meet inside, where the dangers are greatest. These classes will allow us to anticipate more, save it, and respond to new outbreaks of COVID-19 or any other new virus that may happen in the future.
Reference:
[1] The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America Worobey M, Pekar J, Larsen BB, Nelson MI, Hill V, Joy JB, Rambaut A, Suchard MA, Wertheim JO, Lemey P. Science. 10 September 2020: eabc8169 [Printing Electronic Publications]
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Michael Worobey (University of Arizona, Tucson)
NIH Support: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; Fogarty International Centre; National Library of Medicine
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