In Washington, anger at Saudi Arabia over OPEC’s resolution to cut oil production has led to renewed calls and a proposal for a law to at least ban U. S. arms sales to the kingdom.
The bicameral bill introduced by Senator Richard Blumenthal and Representative Ro Khanna proposes an early pause in all arms sales to Riyadh. sale of spare parts and repairs, assistance and logistics, and program support. “
Officials note that the vast majority of Saudi weapons are American-made. An embargo, they say, would therefore have a massive effect on the Saudi military and take years for Riyadh to reduce its reliance on U. S. military technology. Portions and support.
“They can’t pass any extras to Russia and China anytime soon,” Khanna told PBS. “It would take them almost 10 years to get the weapons we supply, just because of the interoperability of weapons, and literally the air force would be paralyzed if they didn’t have American technicians. “
“Without U. S. help, the U. S. To maintain its air force, the entire Saudi fleet would be grounded in a matter of months, as foreign weapons systems are not interchangeable with U. S. systems. “They can’t update the U. S. “
The first aircraft and backbone of the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) is undoubtedly its giant fleet of modern F-15 fighter-bombers. When Saudi Arabia intervened in the fighting in Yemen and began its bombing crusade in early 2015, it ran without delay. in trouble. In some cases, Saudi floor radios may simply not talk to jet planes and Saudi fighter pilots had to fly low enough to achieve their goals via cell phone. he then charged Riyadh for this essential service.
Although anecdotal, incidents like these suggest that the RSAF would face serious problems if the U. S. were to fight the U. S. The U. S. government will withdraw its support. However, in addition to the F-15s, the Saudis also have a large fleet of non-American Eurofighter Typhoon and former Panavia Tornados.
Therefore, the imposition of an arms embargo by the US will not be able to impose an arms embargo. UU. no necessarily means that the entire RSAF would be temporarily grounded, its functions would undoubtedly be particularly reduced. And most likely, Riyadh will have opportunities for Russia and China for fighters if the U. S. fights a fighter. . For example, France may simply welcome the prospect of Riyadh buying Dassault Rafales. It is worth remembering that Carter’s management favored the sale to Saudi Arabia of its first F-15s, an unprecedented and highly debatable agreement at the time in Washington. because Riyadh has shown its willingness to turn to France for an equivalent number of Mirage F1 in case of refusal. These American planes.
“Saudi Arabia can also stick to the UAE’s leadership and buy other types of weapons systems from other suppliers,” Nicholas Heras, director of strategy and innovation at the New Line Institute, told me. “The merit of this technique is that it can minimize the threat that political differences with a specific supplier could pose to gaining access to complex weapons systems. “
However, he noted that the problem with such an arrangement is “that all those systems from other suppliers don’t work as well together, or that the suppliers don’t have the most productive maintenance and resupply systems for those weapons systems, as would be the case with the United States. “
“The United States has a large defense industry that can obtain weapons systems, maintain weapons systems and weapons system resources, faster than its competition in other countries,” he said. “Saudi Arabia is a platinum visitor to the U. S. defense industry. “U. S. arms suppliers, which means American arms suppliers love Saudi business. “
Ryan Bohl, senior analyst for the Middle East and North Africa at threat intelligence firm RANE, with Blumenthal and Khanna sharing the claim that it would take years for Riyadh to properly upgrade its U. S. hardware. In the U. S. , especially complex jets.
“It takes years to train pilots on express aircraft (two years on the F-16, for example), and new aircraft from other countries may come with language barriers that military establishments would have to adapt to,” he told me. In addition, it would also take years for pilots to get used to the new aircraft (flying an F-16 is different from a Rafale or a Eurofighter), wasting years of flight experience on American systems. “
“However, if the U. S. does not do so. If the U. S. were to order an (unlikely) total halt of military aid to Saudi Arabia, it is possible that the Saudis will continue to conduct limited missions for some time with their U. S. team. But they would increasingly risk it without U. S. maintenance support. “U. S. ” Probably, for security reasons, the Saudis would willingly shoot down most, if not all, of their U. S. -built air force until the dispute is resolved. “
“The Saudis can easily use more of their typhoons and tornadoes for military missions if they are pending the resolution of such a hypothetical diplomatic dispute between the United States and Saudi Arabia,” he added.
Even in the face of an embargo, Bohl doubts that the U. S. will be able to do so. The U. S. is probably trying to prevent Saudi Arabia from diversifying its military arsenal by sourcing weapons from U. S. allies. U. S.
“There may be more political repercussions, such as more threats to decrease U. S. military aid. “UU. al Kingdom, but it doesn’t interest the U. S. absolutely cut Riyadh off foreign arms sales (and thus weaken Riyadh which opposes Iran). “said. ” It would probably also disappoint allies,” who also need to sell weapons to the Gulf, so it’s also unlikely.
On the other hand, Washington would react very well if Riyadh turned to Moscow or Beijing for its military equipment.
“While the Russian apparatus is in right now, given that the war in Ukraine uses much of the hardware of Russia’s military, if Riyadh turns to China, the United States will most likely intensify the use of its CAATSA (Act to Counter America’s Adversaries through Sanctions). )) sanctions opposed to Saudi Arabia,” Bohl said.